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Precipitation Impact Commentary

Very Wet Pattern for Central US This Week

Almost continuous precipitation is in the forecast from the southeastern Plains through the Midwest this week.

In the Midwest, a streak of moderate snow occurred over the weekend across the north, while a disturbance brought heavier showers to the south on Sunday. That system continues with a mix of rain and snow on Monday morning before it pushes eastward. The region will see more waves of showers moving through the region throughout the rest of the week. The heaviest amounts will favor those across the south, but all areas should see precipitation this week. Drought in the region is likely to be reduced.

In the Northern Plains, a streak of snow moved through on Saturday, but most of the region stayed dry. Some showers may skip around the edges of the region for most of the week. A better chance for more widespread precipitation will occur across the southeast for Thursday night and Friday, but heavy amounts are not in the forecast. The overall lack of consistent, heavier precipitation is concerning for soil moisture as we head into spring.

In the Central and Southern Plains, a system brought scattered showers to the east over the weekend. This is the first of many disturbances and systems that will bring almost continuous rainfall through the region this week. By Wednesday, heavier precipitation and severe weather are expected, which will target eastern and southern areas. Western areas may get very little precipitation, which would be concerning for drought development.

In the Delta, some showers moved through far northern areas over the weekend and will flirt with the north throughout the week. Massive areas of drought lay across the region though, and deficits are large. The active pattern may start to bring through more widespread and heavier precipitation this weekend.  

In the Southeast, scattered showers went through over the weekend, being favorable for easing drought in some areas. Though Florida finally got some widespread rain, deficits are large and will take a lot more rain to undo. The pattern favors dryness this week, which will not be favorable.

In the Western U.S., it was dry in many areas over the weekend. However, a trough did start to move in on Sunday, which will continue showers through the first half of the week. Another trough will move in right behind it midweek and park itself in the Southwest through the weekend. That should bring through more widespread precipitation. That should help with some of the drought areas in the Rockies, but other areas will not receive what they need. The active weather pattern should continue into at least early next week, which could bring through some more needed precipitation.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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