Trending Warmer

General Overview: ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE HURRICANE MELISSA TRACKS OFFSHORE. MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.

EAST: A low pressure system will bring widespread rain and thunderstorms to the Southeast through Wednesday, particularly affecting Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. This system will gradually move northeastward, bringing rain to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by Thursday. Some thunderstorm activity is possible along coastal areas. By Friday, the precipitation will begin to diminish as high pressure builds in from the Southeast. The weekend looks drier for most of the region as the system moves offshore, though some lingering rain may affect portions of New England.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Slightly below normal temperatures (2-6°F below average) across much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic as cloud cover and precipitation dominate. Near normal temperatures for the Northeast.

-Days 4-6: Below normal temperatures (3-6°F below average) expanding across the Southeast and into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Warming trend begins in the Northeast with slightly above normal temperatures developing.

-Days 7-10: Temperatures returning to near normal across most of the region, with some slightly below normal readings persisting in coastal areas of the Southeast.

CENTRAL: A frontal boundary will move through the Mississippi Valley and Midwest during the middle part of the week, bringing rain to portions of the region. High pressure will dominate across the Northern Plains, keeping conditions generally dry there. By Thursday, a low pressure system developing in Colorado will bring precipitation to portions of the Central Plains. As we move into the weekend, high pressure will build across much of the central United States, leading to drier conditions. Some rain may develop in the South Central region by Saturday associated with a low pressure system near the Texas Gulf Coast.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Below normal temperatures (3-8°F below average) across much of the Central Plains and portions of the Midwest, particularly in Kansas, Oklahoma, and parts of Texas.

-Days 4-6: Continued below normal temperatures across the Central Plains. Near normal temperatures returning to the Midwest and Upper Midwest.

-Days 7-10: Warming trend with above normal temperatures (3-6°F above average) developing across the Central Plains and portions of the Midwest, particularly in the western sections.

WEST: Mixed precipitation is expected across portions of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies through midweek. Areas of rain will affect Washington and Oregon, with some mixed precipitation at higher elevations. High pressure will dominate across the Southwest, bringing dry conditions. Critical fire weather conditions are possible in Southern California due to dry conditions. By late week, a low pressure system will develop, bringing a chance for precipitation to parts of the interior Northwest and Rockies. The Pacific Northwest will see another system move in by the weekend with additional precipitation.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Above normal temperatures (3-6°F above average) across much of the Southwest, particularly in Arizona, Nevada, and Southern California. Near to slightly below normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.

-Days 4-6: Warming trend expanding with above normal temperatures (4-8°F above average) across most of the West, particularly pronounced in the Great Basin and Rocky Mountain states.

-Days 7-10: Continued above normal temperatures (4-8°F above average) across much of the West, with the warmest anomalies focused on the interior Southwest and Great Basin regions.

TROPICAL:

ATLANTIC BASIN: Hurricane Melissa is currently located in the Caribbean Sea and poses a significant threat to surrounding areas such as Jamaica. The system is expected to maintain hurricane strength as it tracks through the region. Hurricane Melissa is not expected to impact the mainland U.S.. 

EASTERN PACIFIC: Tropical Storm Sonia is located in the eastern Pacific, and has re-intensified into a tropical storm. Sonia does not pose a threat to the mainland U.S. and will continue to drift westward before weakening into a tropical depression sometime today.