Temperatures will be Above Average

General Overview: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, WITH THE GREATEST RISK CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA, KANSAS, AND IOWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BROAD AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. HEAVY SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST. A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST.

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EAST: The eastern United States will experience a dramatic shift in weather conditions over the coming days. Initially, a cold front pushing through the region will bring rain and thunderstorm activity to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, while temperatures run below normal across the interior Appalachians and mid-Atlantic corridor. As the weekend progresses, a low pressure system tracking northeastward will bring widespread rain and thunderstorm activity from the Gulf Coast northward through the Southeast and into the Ohio Valley. By Sunday evening, rain and thunderstorm coverage expands significantly, encompassing much of the Southeast, the Gulf Coast states, and extending into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. A warm front lifting northward will help focus precipitation along and ahead of it, with mixed precipitation possible along the boundary across portions of the Great Lakes. By Monday and Tuesday, a strengthening low pressure system tracking into the Great Lakes will drive a cold front southward through the eastern United States, generating widespread thunderstorm activity from the Gulf Coast through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Snow and mixed precipitation will accompany the cold air wrapping in behind the system across the upper Great Lakes and interior Northeast, with rain transitioning to snow possible across northern New England. High pressure building offshore to the southeast will help funnel moisture into the region, supporting continued precipitation chances through midweek.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Temperatures will run 6 to locally more than 12 degrees below normal across the central and southern Appalachians, mid-Atlantic, and portions of the Southeast on Day 1. By Days 2 and 3, the below-normal signal retreats as above-normal temperatures begin to surge northward ahead of the approaching frontal system, with anomalies of 6 to over 12 degrees above normal developing across the Northeast and New England by Day 3.

-Days 4-6: A pronounced warm anomaly takes hold across the eastern United States, with temperatures running 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This warmth is most intense across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and interior Northeast, where anomalies exceed 12 degrees above normal on Days 4 and 5. By Day 6, the warm signal remains strong across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with anomalies still running 6 to over 12 degrees above normal.

-Days 7-10: The above-normal temperature signal gradually moderates but persists across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Day 7, with anomalies of 6 to over 12 degrees above normal focused along the immediate Atlantic Seaboard. By Days 8 through 10, temperature anomalies trend closer to near-normal across most of the East, with only modest departures remaining.

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CENTRAL: The central United States will be the focal point for the most impactful weather over the next several days. A low pressure system over the Central Plains on Saturday evening, combined with a warm front extending northeastward, will set the stage for a significant severe thunderstorm threat. The area of greatest concern for severe thunderstorms stretches from central Nebraska and Kansas northeastward into Iowa, where conditions will be favorable for supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. This severe weather threat persists into Sunday as the low deepens and tracks northeastward, with the severe thunderstorm risk continuing over Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa. Widespread rain and thunderstorm activity will expand across the Mississippi Valley, the Central Plains, and into the Ohio Valley through the weekend. By Monday, the low pressure center shifts into the Great Lakes, and a cold front sweeps southward through the central United States, bringing a broad swath of thunderstorm activity from the Gulf Coast northward through the lower Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. Snow and mixed precipitation will develop across the northern tier of the central region, from the Dakotas into Minnesota and the Upper Midwest, behind the cold front. Additionally, critical fire weather conditions will be a concern across portions of the southern High Plains and Southwest early in the period, where dry and windy conditions will elevate fire danger.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the central United States will run well above normal during the early part of the period, with anomalies of 6 to over 12 degrees above normal widespread from the Central Plains northward through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The warmest departures, exceeding 12 degrees above normal, will be focused over the Upper Midwest and northern Plains on Days 1 and 2. By Day 3, the above-normal signal remains strong across the central region, particularly from the Central Plains through the Great Lakes.

-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures continue to dominate the central United States on Day 4, with anomalies of 6 to over 12 degrees above normal persisting from the Central Plains through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. By Days 5 and 6, the warm anomaly begins to shift eastward as a cold front pushes through the region, and below-normal temperatures start to develop across the northern and central Rockies and High Plains, with anomalies running 6 to over 12 degrees below normal by Day 6 across the northern Plains and Rockies.

-Days 7-10: The below-normal temperature signal expands and deepens across the northern and central Plains and Rockies through Days 7 and 8, with anomalies of 6 to over 12 degrees below normal. By Days 9 and 10, the cold anomaly weakens considerably, and temperatures trend back toward near-normal across most of the central United States, with only isolated modest departures remaining.

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WEST: The western United States will see an active precipitation pattern, particularly across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, where heavy snow and mixed precipitation will be ongoing threats. A series of low pressure systems and associated frontal boundaries will drive repeated rounds of precipitation into the region through the period. On Saturday evening, snow and mixed precipitation will be widespread across the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, and the Intermountain West, with the heaviest snow accumulations expected at higher elevations. A low pressure system over the Great Basin will help focus precipitation across the Southwest and southern Rockies as well. By Sunday, the precipitation shield expands further across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with snow and mixed precipitation continuing at higher elevations. Rain and mixed precipitation will also affect the lower elevations of the Pacific Northwest. Critical fire weather conditions will be a concern across portions of the Southwest and southern Plains, where strong winds and low humidity will create elevated fire danger. By Monday and Tuesday, the precipitation focus shifts northward and eastward as the primary system moves into the central United States, though the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies will continue to see periodic rounds of snow and mixed precipitation. Scattered precipitation chances will linger across the Intermountain West and portions of the Rockies through the remainder of the period.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the West will run above normal on Day 1, with anomalies of 6 to over 12 degrees above normal across much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and California. The Pacific Northwest will see near- to slightly below-normal temperatures by Day 2 as onshore flow increases. By Day 3, below-normal temperatures develop across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with anomalies of 6 to over 12 degrees below normal, while the Southwest and California remain above normal.

-Days 4-6: A significant cold anomaly develops across the northern and central Rockies and Intermountain West by Days 4 and 5, with temperatures running 6 to over 12 degrees below normal from the Pacific Northwest through the northern Rockies and High Plains. This cold signal is most pronounced on Days 5 and 6, when below-normal anomalies of 6 to over 12 degrees extend from the Pacific Northwest southward through the Rockies. The Southwest and California see near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures during this period.

-Days 7-10: The below-normal temperature signal across the West gradually moderates through Days 7 and 8, retreating northward and weakening in coverage. By Days 9 and 10, temperature anomalies across the West trend close to near-normal, with only modest above-normal departures remaining across portions of California and the Great Basin.

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TROPICAL: The Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins are both quiet at this time. No tropical cyclone activity is expected in either basin during the next seven days, and no areas of disturbed weather are currently being monitored for development.