Stalling Front, System Producing Rainfall Through the Weekend, More Next Week

In the Midwest, a system slowly moved through the region this week, producing widespread areas of heavy rain, severe weather, and some flooding. A system will move through on Friday and Saturday with more scattered showers throughout the region. And the stalled front from this week may creep northward next week with more showers, mostly over the south. Though a couple of spots are drier, the vast majority of the region is drought-free with good soil moisture.

In the Northern Plains, scattered showers went through early this week and some additional isolated showers moved in midweek. Showers will continue through Friday with more isolated showers this weekend. Disturbances to the northwest could produce additional showers and thunderstorms next week. Though there are drier conditions across the south and parts of Montana, soil moisture is likely to improve over the next week.

In the Central and Southern Plains, a system brought through a couple of rounds of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms early this week, particularly across the east where it helped to reduce drought across eastern Nebraska and Kansas. The front to the system has stalled over Texas where it will remain active into next week. Another system is bringing showers to the region for Thursday and Friday while isolated showers dot the region through the weekend. Disturbances to the west will create periods of showers next week and the front may drift northward to increase those chances as well. Overall, while drought is a major problem in the region, the forecast does favor areas of improvement through next week.

In the Delta, a front moved into the region and settled, which has and will continue to create daily showers and thunderstorms likely through next week. Though drought is a major issue in the region, soil moisture will be improving and flooding may become a concern in some areas where showers develop over the same areas multiple days in a row.

In the Southeast U.S., areas of isolated showers developed this week. But a front sagging into the region will create daily showers and thunderstorms as it meanders across the northern portion of the region through next week. That rainfall may be heavy and cause areas of flooding, but should be improving soil moisture and drought conditions.

In the Western U.S., some improvement was noted on the Drought Monitor across the far northwest, but drought worsened in other parts of the Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will start to develop well ahead of the primary monsoon season as an overall trough drifts around the area through next week. Showers are likely to be light and spotty, but may produce a few areas of heavy rain that may offer some improvement. A system will move into the Northwest next week with more concentrated heavier rainfall that would lead to more improvement as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com