Slow Moving Cold Front to Bring Scattered Light Rain

**General Overview:**

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREATS CENTERED ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND GULF COAST, ALONG WITH A MIXED PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DRIVE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SPREADS EASTWARD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

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**EAST:** A complex and impactful weather pattern is expected across the eastern United States through the coming days. On Thursday evening, a cold front is draped across the Gulf Coast and pushing northeastward, bringing a broad area of thunderstorm activity from the central Gulf Coast states through the Florida Peninsula and up along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Rain and thunderstorms are widespread ahead of this boundary, with the most active convection focused along and south of the front from the Gulf Coast into the Southeast. Mixed precipitation, including some snow, is noted across the Great Lakes region and into the interior Northeast and northern New England, where a wintry mix and snow will be possible, particularly at higher elevations.

By Friday evening, a low pressure system consolidates near the Great Lakes, drawing a cold front southwestward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Rain and thunderstorms continue to spread across the Southeast, with rain expanding across a large portion of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. The mixed precipitation and snow threat persists across the upper Great Lakes and into the Northeast. A high pressure system building off the Mid-Atlantic coast will help reinforce the boundary between the cold post-frontal air to the north and the warmer, moisture-laden air to the south.

As the weekend arrives, the low pressure center tracks into the Great Lakes on Saturday evening, with the cold front pushing further east and southeast. Rain and thunderstorms remain widespread across the Southeast and Gulf Coast, while rain and mixed precipitation continue to affect the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Snow and mixed precipitation persist across the upper Great Lakes and into the interior Northeast and northern New England. By Sunday evening, a new cold front sweeps through the region, with rain and thunderstorms expanding broadly from the Gulf Coast northward through the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. The Great Lakes and Northeast continue to see rain with some mixed precipitation and snow possible at the highest elevations. A high pressure system over the central part of the country will push the front progressively eastward through the region.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– **Days 1–3:** Temperatures across the Northeast will run above normal by roughly 6 to 12°F, particularly along the immediate coastline from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. The Great Lakes region will be closer to seasonal norms, while the interior Northeast trends slightly above average.

– **Days 4–6:** A notable cooldown arrives across the eastern United States, with temperatures running below normal across much of the Southeast, the Carolinas, and into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes by Days 5 and 6, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F below average. The Northeast moderates toward near-normal readings.

– **Days 7–10:** Below-normal temperatures linger across portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley early in this period, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F below average, before a gradual moderation takes hold. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic trend back toward near-normal to slightly below-normal readings by the end of the period.

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**CENTRAL:** The central United States will be one of the most active regions over the next several days, with multiple hazards in play. On Thursday evening, a broad area of thunderstorm activity is ongoing across the South Central region, stretching from the central Gulf Coast states westward into Texas and northward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent Gulf Coast states, and heavy rain with flash flooding potential is a significant concern across this corridor. Meanwhile, snow and mixed precipitation are ongoing across the central and northern Rockies, including the Colorado Rockies and adjacent High Plains, where heavy snow will be possible at higher elevations. A high pressure system over the central Plains is keeping conditions relatively quiet there for the time being.

By Friday evening, a low pressure system develops near the Missouri Valley, with a cold front extending southwestward across the central Plains and into the South Central region. Thunderstorm activity continues to be widespread from the South Central states northward through the lower Mississippi Valley, with heavy rain and flash flooding remaining a concern. The cold front’s passage will bring a sharp temperature gradient across the region. Snow and mixed precipitation continue across portions of the northern Rockies and High Plains.

On Saturday evening, a second low pressure system is noted over the southern Rockies and central Plains, with widespread thunderstorm and rain activity extending from the South Central states through the central and southern Plains. The cold front continues to push eastward, and rain and thunderstorms spread broadly across the Midwest and central Mississippi Valley. Snow and mixed precipitation are noted across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. By Sunday evening, a high pressure system settles over the central Plains, bringing a drier and calmer period to much of the region, though thunderstorm activity continues across the South Central states ahead of the front.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– **Days 1–3:** Temperatures across the central United States will be significantly below normal, with the most pronounced cold anomalies centered over the Central Plains and central Rockies, where departures of 12°F or more below average are expected, particularly over Colorado and adjacent areas. The South Central region will run slightly above normal.

– **Days 4–6:** The cold anomaly gradually erodes across the Central Plains, with temperatures returning closer to seasonal norms over much of the region by Day 5 and 6. The South Central region trends above normal, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F above average developing across the southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley.

– **Days 7–10:** A significant warming trend takes hold across the central United States, with above-normal temperatures spreading from the Rockies eastward across the Plains. Anomalies of 6 to 12°F above average are expected across portions of the Central and Southern Plains and into the Midwest by the end of the period, signaling a pronounced warm pattern taking hold.

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**WEST:** The western United States will see a relatively active pattern early in the period, particularly across the Intermountain West and northern Rockies. On Thursday evening, snow and mixed precipitation are ongoing across portions of the northern Rockies, the Colorado Rockies, and the Great Basin, with the highest snow totals expected at elevation. Thunderstorm activity is noted across the Desert Southwest. Low pressure systems are positioned across the Southwest and Pacific Northwest, helping to drive precipitation into the region.

By Friday evening, the precipitation focus shifts, with snow and mixed precipitation continuing across the northern Rockies and portions of the northern High Plains. The Pacific Northwest sees some rainfall, while the Southwest remains relatively active with isolated precipitation. The overall pattern begins to transition as high pressure starts to build across the West.

As the weekend progresses, precipitation activity across the West diminishes significantly, with only isolated snow and rain noted across the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. The Southwest and Great Basin trend drier as high pressure becomes more dominant.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– **Days 1–3:** The Pacific Northwest will see above-normal temperatures, running 6 to 12°F above average across Oregon and Washington. The remainder of the West, including the Intermountain West and Southwest, will be near to slightly below normal, with the Great Basin running modestly below average.

– **Days 4–6:** A significant warming trend develops across the West, with above-normal temperatures spreading broadly from the Pacific Coast through the Intermountain West and into the Rockies. Anomalies of 6 to 12°F above average are expected across California, Nevada, Utah, and adjacent areas, with some locally higher departures noted across the interior Southwest.

– **Days 7–10:** The warmth across the West intensifies and expands, with anomalies of 12°F or more above average developing across portions of the Great Basin, Intermountain West, and into the central Rockies. The warming trend is broad and well-established, encompassing much of the region from the Pacific Coast eastward through the Rockies and into the Central Plains by the end of the period.

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**TROPICAL:** The Atlantic basin and the Eastern Pacific basin are both quiet at this time, with no tropical cyclone activity anticipated over the next seven days. No active storms or areas of development concern are currently being monitored in either basin.