Slightly Below Normal

# GENERAL OVERVIEW

The weather pattern across the United States over the coming days will be dominated by active frontal systems and widespread precipitation. Multiple areas of low pressure will track across the country, bringing significant weather hazards to various regions. Most notably, heavy rainfall and flash flooding threats will persist across portions of the South Central states through the weekend and into early next week. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the Central Plains and Upper Midwest during the first half of the forecast period. Meanwhile, wintry precipitation will affect higher terrain areas of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Temperature patterns will feature above-normal readings across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation, with the warmest anomalies developing across the Great Lakes and Northeast later in the period. Cooler-than-normal conditions will be confined to portions of the Northwest and Northern Rockies.

# EAST

A frontal boundary will remain draped across the eastern states through the weekend, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of the region. Rain will affect areas from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Saturday evening. By Sunday evening, precipitation will continue across portions of the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, with additional activity developing along the Southeast coast. Thunderstorms are expected across much of the eastern region during this time.

Monday evening will see rain and thunderstorms persisting across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and portions of the Southeast. Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley and portions of the Mid-Atlantic during this period. By Tuesday evening, rain and thunderstorms will continue across the Great Lakes and Northeast, with additional activity along the Atlantic coast. By Wednesday, activity chances remain possible across the East coast with an additional frontal boundary. 

High pressure will build over the Atlantic, helping to maintain generally dry conditions across much of the Southeast through the period, though coastal areas may see periodic shower activity.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

-**Days 1-3:** Above-normal temperatures will dominate the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with the warmest anomalies of 6 to 12 degrees above normal focused across these areas. The Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will see temperatures 3 to 6 degrees above normal. The Southeast will experience near to slightly above-normal temperatures.

-**Days 4-6:** Warmth will intensify and expand across the East, with the Great Lakes and Northeast seeing temperatures 6 to 12 degrees above normal. The Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and portions of the Southeast will be 3 to 9 degrees above normal.

-**Days 7-10:** The above-normal temperature pattern will persist, with the most significant warmth of 9 to 15 degrees above normal across the Great Lakes and Northeast. The Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Southeast will remain 3 to 9 degrees above normal.

# CENTRAL

The Central region will experience the most significant weather hazards over the coming days, with heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorm threats dominating the forecast. A persistent area of heavy rain and flash flooding potential will affect portions of the South Central states, particularly focused over areas from eastern Texas through Arkansas and into Missouri. This threat will be most pronounced from Saturday through Monday.

Saturday evening will feature widespread thunderstorms across the Central and Southern Plains, with heavy rain and flash flooding possible across eastern Texas, Arkansas, and surrounding areas. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Central Plains and Upper Midwest. Rain will extend northward across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

Sunday evening will see the heavy rain and flash flooding threat continue across Arkansas and portions of the South Central region. Severe thunderstorms remain possible across the Northern Plains. Rain and thunderstorms will be widespread across the Plains and Midwest.

By Monday evening, the heavy rain and flash flooding threat will shift slightly, remaining focused across portions of Missouri and Arkansas. Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Northern Plains. Rain will continue across much of the Plains and Midwest, with additional activity developing across the Great Lakes.

Tuesday evening will feature continued rain and thunderstorm activity across the Plains and Midwest, though the most significant heavy rain threat will begin to diminish. Scattered precipitation will persist across much of the region through midweek.

Wednesday, dry conditions are possible across southern areas, with some shower/thunderstorm chances continuing across the Northern Plains in relation to a low-pressure system. 

**Temperature Anomalies:**

-**Days 1-3:** The Central region will see a mix of temperature anomalies. The Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will be 3 to 6 degrees above normal. The Central Plains will experience near to slightly above-normal temperatures. The South Central states will see temperatures near to slightly above normal.

-**Days 4-6:** Above-normal temperatures will expand across the region. The Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will be 6 to 12 degrees above normal. The Central Plains and South Central states will be 3 to 6 degrees above normal.

-**Days 7-10:** The warmth will intensify further across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with temperatures 9 to 15 degrees above normal. The Central Plains will be 3 to 9 degrees above normal, while the South Central states remain near to slightly above normal.

# WEST

The West will experience an active weather pattern, particularly across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, where multiple systems will bring precipitation through the period. Snow will affect higher terrain areas, while rain will be more common at lower elevations.

Saturday evening will feature rain across the Pacific Northwest, with snow in the higher elevations of the Cascades and Northern Rockies. Thunderstorms will develop across portions of the Intermountain West. Rain will also affect portions of the Northern Rockies.

Sunday evening will see wintry mix conditions across portions of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, with rain continuing at lower elevations. Snow will persist in the higher terrain of the Cascades and Northern Rockies.

Monday evening will bring rain to the Pacific Northwest and portions of the Northern Rockies, with wintry mix conditions in the higher terrain. The Intermountain West will see scattered precipitation, including some wintry mix at higher elevations.

By Tuesday evening, wintry mix will continue across portions of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, with rain at lower elevations. The Southwest will remain largely dry through the period.

On Wednesday, additional showers and higher elevations snow showers remain possible throughout the day. 

**Temperature Anomalies:**

-**Days 1-3:** Temperature anomalies will be mixed across the West. The Southwest will see above-normal temperatures of 6 to 12 degrees. The Pacific Northwest and portions of the Northern Rockies will experience below-normal temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees in some areas. Much of the Intermountain West will be near normal.

-**Days 4-6:** Below-normal temperatures will expand across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, with anomalies of 3 to 9 degrees below normal. The Southwest and portions of the Intermountain West will remain near to slightly above normal.

-**Days 7-10:** The cool pattern will persist across the Northern Rockies, with temperatures 3 to 9 degrees below normal. The Pacific Northwest will see below-normal temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees. The Southwest will trend warmer, with temperatures 6 to 12 degrees above normal.

# TROPICAL

Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next seven days.