Showers and Storms Return

General Overview: SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER THREATS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE GULF COAST REGION WHILE MIXED PRECIPITATION AFFECTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL STATES WITH WARMING EXPECTED IN THE WEST LATER IN THE PERIOD.

EAST:  A complex winter weather pattern will affect the eastern United States over the next several days. Initially, mixed precipitation including possible freezing rain will impact portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. As the system evolves, a significant freezing rain threat develops across the Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley by Monday. This hazardous wintry precipitation will spread from West Virginia and Virginia southwestward into Tennessee and northern portions of the Southeast states. 

By Tuesday, high pressure builds into the Northeast while low pressure along the Southeast coast maintains rain along the Atlantic seaboard. The Gulf Coast states will experience periods of rain and thunderstorms, particularly across Florida and the coastal regions. Precipitation will gradually diminish midweek as the coastal low moves offshore and high pressure builds in from the west.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Near to slightly below normal temperatures across most of the region, with the coldest anomalies (3-6°F below normal) in the interior Northeast and northern Appalachians.

-Days 4-6: Moderating temperatures with near normal readings returning to most areas except for continued below normal temperatures in the northern portions of the region.

-Days 7-10: Generally near normal temperatures prevailing across the East, with slightly below normal conditions persisting in New England and slightly above normal readings possible in the Southeast.

CENTRAL:  The Central United States will experience a significant weather pattern featuring multiple low pressure systems and below normal temperatures. Initially, a broad area of high pressure will dominate the Northern Plains, but this will give way to developing low pressure systems. Mixed precipitation will spread across portions of the Midwest and Central Plains, with rain transitioning to freezing rain in some locations.

By Monday, a more organized system brings potential for freezing rain across Arkansas and portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This hazardous winter precipitation will be the primary concern for the region through midweek. The Southern Plains will see rain and thunderstorms, particularly along the Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana.

As the week progresses, high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley while low pressure develops in the Northern Plains, bringing another round of precipitation to the region by late week. The overall pattern favors continued below normal temperatures across much of the Central states.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Significantly below normal temperatures (6-12°F below average) across the Northern and Central Plains into the Midwest, with the coldest anomalies centered on Iowa, Nebraska, and the Dakotas.

-Days 4-6: Continued below normal temperatures across most of the region, with the coldest anomalies shifting slightly eastward into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

-Days 7-10: Persistent below normal temperatures across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, gradually moderating toward normal in the Southern Plains by day 10.

WEST:  The Western United States will see a variable weather pattern with several systems affecting the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West. Initially, areas of mixed precipitation will impact Washington, Oregon, and portions of Idaho and Nevada. High pressure centers over the Pacific Northwest and the Southwest will create a split flow pattern.

By Monday, low pressure systems along the West Coast bring additional precipitation to the Pacific Northwest, with mixed precipitation extending inland. The Southwest will remain generally dry under high pressure influence. As the week progresses, low pressure develops in the Northern Rockies, bringing precipitation to Montana and the Northern Plains.

Later in the period, high pressure builds across the Western states, leading to drier conditions for most areas except for lingering precipitation in the Pacific Northwest. The overall pattern favors near to slightly above normal temperatures for much of the Southwest, while the Pacific Northwest experiences periods of cooler conditions with precipitation.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Near normal temperatures for most of the region with slightly below normal readings in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.

-Days 4-6: Warming trend begins with above normal temperatures (3-6°F above average) developing across the Southwest and Great Basin, while the Pacific Northwest remains near normal.

-Days 7-10: Above normal temperatures (3-6°F above average) expand across much of the West, particularly in the Southwest, Great Basin, and portions of the Pacific Northwest.

TROPICAL: No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next 7 days in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific basins according to the National Hurricane Center.