Shell Expects Lower Q1 Upstream Output, Refining Climbs

HOUSTON, TX (DTN) – Shell expects its first-quarter upstream production to range from about 1.76 million to 1.86 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), down from 1.88 million boepd in the fourth quarter, the company said in an updated note released Wednesday (4/8).

“In light of the ongoing situation in the Middle East, the outlook provided is subject to increased uncertainty,” Shell stated.

Adjusted earnings for the upstream segment are projected to range from $0.2 billion to $3.1 billion, benefiting from higher Trading and Optimization results compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.

Refinery utilization for the first quarter is expected to range from 95% to 99%, up from 95% in the fourth quarter, while the indicative refining margin rose from $14 bbl to $17 bbl. Integrated gas production, meanwhile, is estimated to range from 880,000 to 920,000 boepd, below the 948,000 boepd recorded in the fourth quarter.