Scattered Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms

General Overview: A SIGNIFICANT AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. QUIETER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN US, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS WEEK.

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EAST: A low pressure system positioned near the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday evening is the dominant weather feature for the eastern United States early in the period. This system is drawing a warm front northward through the Northeast while a cold front extends southward along the Southeast coast. A broad area of rain is expected to cover much of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and into the Great Lakes region, with mixed precipitation possible across interior portions of the Northeast and into northern New England where the thermal boundary is most pronounced. Thunderstorm activity is also expected across portions of the Southeast and into the Gulf Coast states in association with the trailing cold front and warm, moist air streaming northward ahead of the system.

By Thursday evening, the low pressure center has shifted offshore and the cold front pushes through the Southeast, with rain and thunderstorm activity continuing along and ahead of the front across the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Areas of rain and snow will linger across the Great Lakes and into portions of the interior Northeast as colder air wraps in behind the departing system. Freezing rain remains a notable hazard across the Great Lakes region during this timeframe.

Into Friday evening, a new low pressure system develops near the Gulf Coast, and rain spreads broadly across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. The Northeast continues to see lingering mixed precipitation and snow across the interior, with freezing rain possible along the transitional zone. By Saturday, this Gulf Coast low tracks northeastward, bringing a fresh round of rain and thunderstorms to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, with the cold front pushing offshore. Rain coverage remains extensive across the eastern seaboard, and the potential for additional mixed precipitation persists across the interior Northeast and Great Lakes.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1-3: Temperatures will run well above normal across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and much of the Northeast, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12°F above average in some locations early in the period. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic also trend above normal. By Day 3, anomalies moderate considerably, with near-normal readings returning to much of the East.

– Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures begin to push into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F below average. The Northeast trends toward near to slightly below normal as the cold air mass expands. The Southeast sees near-normal readings.

– Days 7-10: Below-normal temperatures become more widespread across the eastern United States, particularly across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, where anomalies of 3 to 6°F below normal are expected. The Northeast trends near normal by the end of the period.

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CENTRAL: The most significant and immediately impactful weather across the central United States centers on the threat for severe thunderstorms across the lower Mississippi Valley, Mid-South, and into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. A well-defined low pressure system positioned over this region, combined with a strong cold front and ample moisture streaming northward from the Gulf, will create an environment favorable for organized severe weather, including the potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. 

As the initial system exits to the northeast by Wednesday, precipitation coverage across the central United States diminishes, though rain and thunderstorm activity continues across the South Central states and into the lower Mississippi Valley. A high pressure system builds into the Central Plains behind the departing low, bringing a brief period of quieter weather to the region.

By Friday, a new low pressure system develops near the Gulf Coast, and rain spreads northward across the South Central region and into the Central Plains. This system brings another round of widespread rain and thunderstorm activity to the region through the weekend, with the cold front eventually pushing through the Gulf Coast states by Saturday. Critical fire weather conditions were noted across portions of the southern High Plains earlier in the period, a reminder that the dry and windy conditions ahead of the frontal passage can pose elevated fire danger in that region.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1-3: A strong temperature contrast exists across the central United States. The North Central and Central Plains regions are running 6 to more than 12°F below normal, with the most pronounced cold anomalies centered over the Northern Plains and upper Midwest. Meanwhile, the South Central states — particularly Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley — are running 6 to locally 9°F above normal, fueling the severe weather potential.

– Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures expand and intensify across the Central Plains and into the South Central region. Anomalies of 9 to more than 12°F below normal are expected across portions of the Southern Rockies and Central Plains by Day 5, representing a significant cold intrusion. This cold air pushes southward into Texas and the Gulf Coast states, with anomalies of 6 to 9°F below normal by Day 6.

– Days 7-10: Below-normal temperatures persist across the South Central states and into the lower Mississippi Valley, with anomalies of 6 to locally 9°F below normal. The Central Plains trend toward near-normal readings by the end of the period as the cold air mass gradually moderates.

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WEST: The western United States will see an active precipitation pattern across the Northwest and Intermountain West throughout much of the period. A series of low pressure systems and associated frontal boundaries will bring rounds of rain and mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and portions of the Great Basin. Mixed precipitation, including snow at higher elevations, is expected across the Northern Rockies and into the northern Great Basin on Wednesday, with precipitation continuing to spread across the region through Thursday. The Cascades and Northern Rockies will see the most consistent snowfall, with lower elevation rain also possible across the Pacific Northwest coast.

By Friday, a low pressure system is positioned over the northern Intermountain West, bringing rain and mountain snow to portions of the Northern Rockies and into the Central Rockies. Thunderstorm activity is also possible across the Southwest in association with a separate disturbance. Into Saturday, the Northwest continues to see precipitation, with rain and snow showers persisting across the mountains. A low pressure system over the Great Basin will continue to support unsettled conditions across the region.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1-3: Below-normal temperatures are widespread across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12°F below average across Montana and the Northern Plains. The Southwest and portions of the Great Basin trend slightly above normal.

– Days 4-6: A significant shift occurs as above-normal temperatures build into the Pacific Northwest and portions of the Intermountain West, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F above normal across the Pacific Northwest by Days 5 and 6. The Southwest also trends above normal. The Northern Rockies see near-normal readings.

– Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures become well established across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12°F above normal in the Pacific Northwest by Days 7 and 8. This warming trend moderates somewhat by Days 9 and 10, though above-normal readings persist across much of the West.

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TROPICAL: The Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins are currently quiet, with no tropical cyclone activity expected over the next seven days.