Scattered Rain Showers

General Overview: THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, AREAS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US, WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE PNW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST US. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN US INTO NEXT WEEK.

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EAST: A complex system is the dominant weather story across the eastern United States to start the period. On Saturday, a well-defined low pressure system is positioned along the mid-Atlantic coast, with a cold front extending southward and a warm front arching northward into the Northeast. This setup is generating widespread rain across the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and into New England. Thunderstorm activity is also widespread across the Southeast and Gulf Coast states, where warm, moist air ahead of the frontal boundary is fueling convection. The cold front sweeping through the region will push rain and thunderstorms southward and eastward, with the Gulf Coast seeing persistent thunderstorm coverage through the weekend.

By Sunday, the primary low pressure system has lifted northeastward and is now situated near the Northeast coast, with an occluded front extending northward. Rain will continue to impact the Great Lakes and interior Northeast, while thunderstorms remain active across the South Central region and Gulf Coast, where a new low pressure center has developed. A broad area of rain extends from the mid-Mississippi Valley eastward through the Ohio Valley and into the mid-Atlantic. The threat for heavy rainfall is notable across portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast, where persistent thunderstorm activity could produce locally significant rainfall totals.

Into Monday, the cold front has pushed well offshore along the Eastern Seaboard, with a low pressure center near the mid-Atlantic coast. Rain continues along the immediate coast and offshore, while the interior East dries out behind the departing system. Thunderstorm activity along the Gulf Coast diminishes as the frontal boundary pushes southward. By Tuesday, high pressure builds across the central and eastern United States, bringing a period of quieter and drier conditions to much of the East. However, a new low pressure system tracking through the Great Lakes region will bring rain back to portions of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1-3: Temperatures across the Northeast and Great Lakes will run 3 to 9 degrees below normal, with the most pronounced cold anomalies centered over the upper Great Lakes and northern New England. The Southeast and mid-Atlantic will be near to slightly below normal.

– Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures persist across the Great Lakes and into portions of the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, with anomalies of 3 to 9 degrees below average. The Southeast trends closer to normal as the cold air moderates.

– Days 7-10: The cold anomaly across the East diminishes significantly, with temperatures trending back toward or near normal across most of the region by the end of the period.

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CENTRAL: The central United States will be a focal point for active and potentially hazardous weather over the coming days. On Saturday, a broad area of thunderstorm activity extends from the Gulf Coast northward through the South Central region and into the lower Mississippi Valley, driven by a cold front and associated low pressure. Heavy rainfall is a concern across this corridor, particularly where thunderstorms become organized and persistent.

By Sunday, a strong low pressure center has developed over the South Central region, with a cold front pushing westward across the southern Plains and into Texas. Thunderstorm activity remains widespread and vigorous from the Gulf Coast northward through the lower Mississippi Valley and into the mid-South. The threat for heavy rain and severe thunderstorms is elevated across this area. Meanwhile, a high pressure system is building across the Central Plains, keeping conditions drier across the northern and central Plains.

Into Monday, a new low pressure system has developed over the northern Plains, with a cold front and warm front extending outward. Rain will develop across the northern Plains, with thunderstorm activity continuing across portions of the South Central region. The Central Plains remain relatively quiet under the influence of high pressure. By Tuesday, the low pressure system over the upper Midwest deepens, with an occluded front spreading rain across the upper Midwest. Thunderstorm activity is noted near the low center, with a cold front sweeping southwestward across the Central Plains. The South Central region sees a gradual decrease in thunderstorm coverage as the frontal boundary pushes through.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1-3: The North Central region, including the northern Plains and upper Midwest, will experience temperatures running 3 to more than 12 degrees below normal, with the most significant cold anomalies over northern Montana and the Dakotas. The South Central region is near to slightly below normal.

– Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures shift southward and eastward, with the upper Midwest and Great Lakes seeing anomalies of 3 to 9 degrees below average. The Central and Southern Plains trend closer to normal.

– Days 7-10: Temperatures across the central United States moderate considerably, with much of the region trending back toward or slightly above normal by the end of the period.

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WEST: The western United States will experience a relatively quiet but not entirely inactive weather pattern over the coming days. On Saturday, a low pressure system is positioned over the Southwest, bringing some shower activity to portions of the Desert Southwest and southern California. The Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies are largely dry, though some light precipitation is noted in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies.

By Sunday, shower activity continues across the Southwest, while the Pacific Northwest remains mostly quiet. A low pressure system near the Southwest persists, maintaining the threat for scattered showers across the Desert Southwest and into the southern Rockies. Into Monday, a low pressure system develops near the northern Rockies, bringing rain and snow to portions of Montana and Idaho, with thunderstorm activity noted near the low center. High pressure dominates across the Central Basin and Range, keeping conditions dry and warm across much of the interior West. By Tuesday, the low pressure system over the northern Rockies continues to produce rain and snow in that region, while the remainder of the West sees mostly dry conditions.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1-3: Above-normal temperatures are well established across the Southwest, Great Basin, and into the Intermountain West, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal across portions of Nevada, Utah, and the Desert Southwest. The Pacific Northwest is near to slightly above normal.

– Days 4-6: The above-normal temperature signal strengthens and expands across the West, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal spreading across California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and into the central Rockies. This warmth will be notable and could approach record territory in some locations across the Southwest and Great Basin.

– Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures gradually moderate but remain in place across much of the West, with anomalies of 3 to 9 degrees above normal persisting across the Intermountain West and Central Rockies. The Pacific Northwest trends closer to normal by the end of the period.

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TROPICAL: The Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins are both quiet at this time, no tropical cyclone activity is expected over the next seven days.