Rain Shifting to South, North Drying Out Next Week

In the Midwest, a slow-moving front has been working across the region this week. It has already produced widespread rainfall for the Upper Midwest and will continue across the south and east into the weekend. Very few issues with regard to soil moisture are currently noted, and are due more to excess than limited moisture. The pattern will be drier for next week, drying out some areas, but perhaps a bit too much. There may still be a front that drifts south into the region that could spark some showers next week, but the chances are low.

In the Northern Plains, systems and disturbances have been bringing through rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms this week. The last one will move through Thursday into early Friday. That will be followed by hotter and drier weather for several days. Chances for rain will return toward the end of next week, but may not be all that widespread. Though some small improvements were made on the drought monitor this week, soil moisture is likely to fall next week and we could be shifting the momentum toward building drought again.

In the Central and Southern Plains, showers were isolated early this week, but more scattered showers developed midweek as a front slipped into the region. The front will continue southward through the weekend at a very slow pace, allowing for widespread chances for precipitation. Drought has been slowly improving in recent weeks because of some better rainfall. However, while southern areas may still find scattered showers next week, much of the region will be drier, especially across the north. Nebraska in particular continues to have issues with soil moisture and the coming forecast could make that worse.

In the Delta, isolated showers have been falling across the region all week. A front drifting into the region this weekend will stall and produce more widespread showers well into next week. Improvements to long-term deficits continue to occur in the busy pattern. With more rain coming, some areas of flooding may be possible.

In the Southeast U.S., pop-up showers and thunderstorms have been fairly widespread this week, though areas across the north have seen the most consistent showers. A front moving in this weekend will enhance the showers across the region and the front should stall across the south as showers continue next week. Improvements to long-term rainfall deficits in parts of the region continue. Some areas of the Carolinas have seen improvements as well.

In the Western U.S., isolated showers and thunderstorms favored the eastern half of the region this week with a couple of disturbances floating through and some monsoon showers starting up in the Four Corners area. With a ridge building overhead this weekend, this will tend to suppress everything but the monsoon activity, which is likely to spread farther west and north next week. Thunderstorms could initially create more wildfires, but should have an overall moistening effect as time goes on for the rest of this summer.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com