Passing Showers Return Today

General Overview: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, WHERE A MULTI-DAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ANTICIPATED, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ALSO A CONCERN. A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD WILL DRIVE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE, WHILE THE NORTHWEST DEALS WITH ITS OWN ACTIVE PATTERN. THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE PATTERN FEATURES A NOTABLE CONTRAST, WITH WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATING THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING, WHILE WELL-BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRIP THE INTERIOR WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY ON BEFORE EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO A BROADER WARM-UP ACROSS THE NATION HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

—

EAST: The eastern United States will be the recipient of a very active weather pattern as a potent low pressure system and associated cold front push through the region. On Tuesday, a low pressure center is positioned near the Gulf Coast, with a cold front extending northeastward all the way into the Northeast. Ahead of this boundary, widespread thunderstorm activity is ongoing from the Gulf Coast northward through the Southeast, the Ohio Valley, and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A warm front is draped across the northern tier, with rain and mixed precipitation occurring across portions of the Great Lakes and into New England. The threat for heavy rain and flash flooding is particularly notable across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Monday and Tuesday, where multiple rounds of intense thunderstorms are expected to produce locally significant rainfall totals.

By Wednesday, the low pressure system has deepened and shifted, with a secondary low developing near the Mid-Atlantic coast. The cold front pushes through the region, bringing a swath of rain and thunderstorms from the Southeast northward through the Carolinas and into the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Severe thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic corridor. Rain and mixed precipitation continue across the northern Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The trailing cold front passage will eventually usher in a drier and cooler airmass behind it.

By Thursday, the cold front has pushed offshore along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts, with a high pressure center settling in over the Great Lakes. Rain lingers along the immediate coastline from the Carolinas northward through the Mid-Atlantic, while the interior Northeast and Great Lakes begin to dry out. The Southeast and Gulf Coast continue to see scattered thunderstorm activity in the warm, moist airmass south of the departing front. By Friday, a new low pressure system develops across the Central Plains, with a warm front extending eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley. This will reinvigorate rain and thunderstorm chances across the Southeast and portions of the Ohio Valley heading into the weekend.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Temperatures will run significantly above normal across much of the East, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above average from the Mid-Atlantic through New England and the Ohio Valley. The Great Lakes region also sees above-normal readings, particularly on Days 1 and 2. The Southeast sees near- to slightly above-normal temperatures.

-Days 4-6: The above-normal temperature signal weakens considerably across the East as the cold front pushes through. By Day 4, anomalies of 6 to 12 degrees above normal are confined mainly to New England and the immediate Mid-Atlantic coast, while the interior East trends toward near-normal. By Days 5 and 6, temperatures across the East are largely near to slightly below normal, with only isolated pockets of modest above-normal readings remaining along the immediate coastline.

-Days 7-10: The East trends back toward near- to slightly above-normal temperatures through the Day 7-10 period, with modest warm anomalies of 3 to 6 degrees above average returning to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region by Days 8 through 10.

—

CENTRAL: The central United States will be the focal point for the most significant and dangerous weather over the next several days. On Monday, a vigorous low pressure system is positioned over the Central Plains, with multiple surface lows and a complex frontal structure in place. A major severe thunderstorm threat is underway, with the greatest risk for severe weather — including the potential for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds — focused across a corridor from the Central Plains through the Midwest and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Heavy rain and flash flooding are also a serious concern across this same region, with the potential for significant rainfall accumulations over a short period of time. Critical fire weather conditions are also possible across portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest, where dry and windy conditions are expected.

By Tuesday, the severe thunderstorm threat shifts eastward, but a new round of severe weather remains possible from the South Central region northward through the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorm activity is widespread across the Gulf Coast states, the South Central, and into the Midwest. The low pressure system over the Central Plains continues to influence the weather pattern, with rain and thunderstorms extending from the Gulf Coast all the way northward into the Northern Plains.

By Wednesday, a low pressure center is located over the Northern Rockies, with widespread rain and thunderstorms continuing across the Central and Southern Plains, the Mississippi Valley, and into the Midwest. By Thursday, the Central Plains and Midwest begin to see a gradual decrease in precipitation coverage as the frontal system pushes eastward, though scattered thunderstorms persist across the South Central region. By Friday, a new low pressure system develops across the Central Plains, with a warm front extending eastward and a cold front dropping southward. This will set the stage for another round of thunderstorms across the Central Plains and South Central region heading into the weekend, with severe weather again possible.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: A sharp temperature contrast exists across the Central region. The eastern portions of the Central region, including the Midwest and Upper Mississippi Valley, are running 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal on Day 1, reflecting the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Meanwhile, the Northern Plains and High Plains are running 6 to more than 12 degrees below normal, with the coldest anomalies centered over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. By Day 3, the below-normal signal expands across a broader portion of the Central region, with anomalies of 6 to 12 degrees below normal extending from the Northern Plains southward through the Central Plains and into the Central Rockies.

-Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures dominate much of the Central region through Days 4 and 5, with the coldest anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees below normal focused over the Central and Southern Plains and into the Central Rockies. By Day 6, the below-normal signal weakens considerably, with temperatures trending back toward near-normal across most of the Central region.

-Days 7-10: A broad warm-up takes hold across the Central region during Days 7 through 10, with above-normal temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees spreading across the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Central Plains by Days 8 through 10. The South Central region trends toward near-normal through this period.

—

WEST: The western United States will experience an unsettled and active weather pattern through much of the forecast period. On Tuesday, rain and snow showers are ongoing across the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies, with a mix of precipitation types at various elevations. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also present across portions of the Southwest and the Intermountain West. A low pressure system is positioned off the California coast, contributing to the unsettled conditions across the region.

By Wednesday, the active pattern continues across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, with widespread rain and thunderstorms across a large portion of the region. Snow continues at higher elevations across the Northern Rockies and Cascades. A separate low pressure system is located over the Great Basin, contributing to precipitation across the Intermountain West. By Thursday, precipitation coverage across the West begins to decrease somewhat, though isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible across the Northern Rockies and portions of the Southwest. The Pacific Northwest continues to see periods of rain and mountain snow. By Friday, the overall precipitation pattern across the West becomes more scattered, with the primary focus of activity shifting to the Northern Rockies and portions of the Northwest.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: The West features a pronounced below-normal temperature signal during the Days 1-3 period. The Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Intermountain West are running 6 to more than 12 degrees below normal, with the most extreme cold anomalies centered over the Northern Rockies and Great Basin. The Pacific Coast sees near- to slightly below-normal temperatures, while portions of California trend slightly above normal by Day 3.

-Days 4-6: The below-normal temperature signal across the interior West begins to moderate during Days 4 through 6. By Day 5, California and the Pacific Coast see a return to above-normal temperatures, with anomalies of 3 to 6 degrees above average. The interior West trends toward near-normal by Day 6, with the exception of isolated pockets of slightly below-normal readings across the Intermountain West.

-Days 7-10: The West transitions to a broadly above-normal temperature pattern during Days 7 through 10. Above-normal anomalies of 3 to 6 degrees spread across the Pacific Northwest, California, and the Intermountain West by Days 8 through 10, signaling a warming trend across the region heading into the extended period.

—

TROPICAL: No tropical cyclone activity is expected across either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific basins during the next seven days. There are currently no active storms, tropical disturbances, or areas of development being monitored at this time.