OPEC+ Stays Bullish as Output Rises

VIENNA (DTN) – The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners kept demand growth forecast for 2026 unchanged at 1.38 million bpd in their latest monthly oil report published Thursday (12/11). The group’s oil output edged higher last month, but continued to be plagued by outages.

Combined crude oil production by OPEC+ – the alliance of 12 OPEC countries and 10 partners – rose by less than expected in November. Eight key nations in the alliance agreed to a 137,000 bpd production increase in November, but put out an additional 126,000 bpd instead. Output declines from others in OPEC+ offset much of that surplus, effectively curtailing supply growth to 43,000 bpd.

Modest increases in Saudi oil production and an uptick in Kazakh output were also largely offset by declines elsewhere.

Output from members of the Declaration of Cooperation, the OPEC+ group excluding Libya, Venezuela and Iran, rose by 85,000 bpd month-on-month. But supply outages which led to a surprising drop in production in October continued to weigh on the group’s output. Sanctions on Russia and heavy maintenance at Kazakh oil fields kept output constrained.

Optimistic demand growth expectations – some 500,000 bpd higher than forecast by the International Energy Agency – coupled with a relatively modest non-OPEC output growth forecast, implies a well-balanced crude oil market in 2026, OPEC’s final analysis shows.

That puts the group at odds with most major forecasting agencies and analysts who are expecting a sizable crude overhang next year.