OPEC+ Stays Bullish as Output Falls to 4-Month Low

VIENNA (DTN) – The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners kept its demand growth forecast for 2026 unchanged at 1.38 million bpd in its latest monthly oil report published Wednesday (1/14). The group’s oil output continued to be plagued by outages, dropping to the lowest level since August.

Combined crude oil production by OPEC and its partners fell in December. Output from OPEC+’s so-called group of eight – member countries which had agreed to hike output by 137,000 bpd in December – fell by 202,000 bpd from the prior month, and declines in output from other members led to supply shrinking by 238,000 bpd.

Kazakh oil production alone plummeted by 237,000 bpd after a Ukrainian attack on the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk left only one of three moorings operational, forcing shut some production. Russian output fell by 73,000 bpd on the month, and production in Venezuela – one of three countries not part of the production curtailment agreement, was down by 60,000 bpd amid sanctions pressure.

The newest report also contained OPEC’s first demand growth forecast for 2027, which at 1.34 million bpd just a tick below the 1.38 million bpd projected for this year. Optimistic demand growth expectations – some 500,000 bpd higher than IEA’s – coupled with a relatively modest non-OPEC output growth forecast, implies a well-balanced crude oil market in 2026, which puts the group at odds with most major forecasting agencies and analysts who are expecting a sizable crude overhang this year.