Oil Halts Selloff as U.S. Federal Government Reopens

VIENNA (DTN) – Oil prices edged up Thursday (11/13) morning after slumping 4% in the previous session on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ acknowledgement the global oil market was in oversupply last quarter. The U.S. federal government reopening after a record long 43-day shutdown, meanwhile, provided some support to prices.

The NYMEX WTI contract for December delivery rose $0.54 to $59.03 bbl, and ICE Brent for January delivery advanced $0.56 to $63.27 bbl.

December RBOB gasoline futures edged up $0.0138 to $1.9692 gallon, while front-month ULSD futures slipped $0.0033 to $2.4783 gallon.

The U.S. Dollar Index softened by 0.214 points to 99.160 against a basket of foreign currencies.

In its monthly oil market report published yesterday, OPEC flipped its view from a 400,000-bpd deficit to a 500,000-bpd surplus in the third quarter, joining forecasting agencies like the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration in their estimates that the global oil market balance has already tilted into oversupply.

The EIA reaffirmed its view of a growing surplus in its latest short-term energy outlook published yesterday. The agency raised demand growth forecasts for this year and next by 100,000 bpd from last month’s report, but hiked production growth estimates for 2025 and 2026 by 200,000 bpd, leading to an oversupply-forecast of 2.2 million bpd.

The IEA’s newest outlook published this morning contained similar revisions, raising their expected oil overhang in 2026 to 4.09 million bpd, up from 3.97 million bpd in the October report.

U.S. President Donald Trump late Wednesday signed into law a funding bill allowing the federal government to resume operations after being shut down for 43 days. The longest shutdown in U.S. history has weighed on consumer spending and business optimism, souring the outlook for fuel demand. Air traffic controllers, who have been working without compensation since October 1, have over the past five weeks retired at record rates, prompting the Federal Aviation Administration to mandate reductions in flights that could impact near-term jet fuel demand.

Domestic crude oil inventories again expanded last week, according to a report by the American Petroleum Institute published Wednesday. The API estimated a crude oil build of 1.3 million bbl for the week ending November 7, following a 5.2 million bbl build in the week prior as reported by the EIA. Official government inventory data is scheduled for 12pm ET release today, delayed by one day due to Veteran’s Day federal holiday Tuesday (11/11).