Near to Above Normal Today

General Overview: THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION, WHERE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO POSE A SERIOUS THREAT, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A BROAD AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE EAST, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WILL BRING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTEND WITH MULTIPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH CENTRAL REGIONS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES GRIP PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER EXPAND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION.

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EAST: A complex and evolving weather pattern will impact the eastern United States over the coming days. On Thursday, a broad area of thunderstorm activity extends from the Gulf Coast northward through the Southeast and into portions of the Mid-Atlantic, fueled by a cold front pushing through the region. A high pressure center situated over the Great Lakes will help funnel moisture into the region, maintaining active storm coverage. Rain is noted across much of New England and the Northeast, with some rain possible across interior northern New England and the Canadian border region. By Friday, a low pressure system develops and tracks into the Northeast, bringing rain and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Rain continues across the interior Northeast and northern New England as the low deepens. The Southeast and Gulf Coast remain active with ongoing thunderstorm coverage. Into Saturday, the low pressure system shifts offshore, with a cold front and warm front extending outward from it. Rain spreads along the immediate coastline from the Mid-Atlantic northward, while the interior begins to dry out behind the departing system. The Southeast and portions of the Gulf Coast continue to see thunderstorm activity. By Sunday, high pressure builds into the region from the north, bringing drier and quieter conditions to much of the East. Rain lingers along the Gulf Coast and into the Deep South, while the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic transition to mostly dry weather. A cold front approaches from the south and east, keeping some rain in the picture for the immediate coastline.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the Northeast and New England will run near to slightly above normal early in the period, with modest above-normal readings of around 3 to 6°F. The Southeast and Gulf Coast will be near normal to slightly above normal.

-Days 4-6: The Northeast transitions to below-normal temperatures, running roughly 3 to 6°F below average by Days 5 and 6, particularly across New England and the Mid-Atlantic. The Southeast remains near to slightly below normal.

-Days 7-10: Below-normal temperatures persist and expand across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F below average. The Northeast gradually moderates but remains near or slightly below normal through the end of the period.

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CENTRAL: The most impactful weather across the central United States will be focused on the South Central region, where a potent area of heavy rain and flash flooding is expected during the Wednesday through Thursday timeframe. A well-defined area of heavy rain and flash flooding potential is highlighted across the lower Mississippi Valley and into the central Gulf Coast region, with thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous rainfall rates. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of this same region, adding to the overall threat level. Residents across the lower Mississippi Valley, including the Gulf Coast, should be prepared for the potential of significant rainfall accumulations and associated flooding impacts. Elsewhere across the Central Plains and Midwest, widespread rain and thunderstorm activity will be ongoing through Thursday, associated with a broad frontal zone and multiple low pressure centers tracking through the region. A cold front sweeps southeastward through the Central Plains by Friday, with rain and thunderstorm activity shifting toward the South Central states. By Saturday, a new low pressure system develops over the Central Plains, helping to reinvigorate thunderstorm activity across the region. High pressure builds across the upper Midwest by Saturday and Sunday, bringing a drying trend to the northern portions of the central United States. By Sunday, the Central Plains and Midwest see a notable reduction in precipitation coverage as high pressure dominates. Thunderstorms continue across the South Central region and into the Gulf Coast, with moisture continuing to stream northward ahead of the frontal boundary.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: The Northern Plains and North Central region will experience exceptionally warm temperatures, running 9 to more than 12°F above normal, particularly across the northern tier. The South Central region, including portions of the Southern Plains, will be near to slightly below normal, with anomalies of around 3 to 6°F below average.

-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures persist across the Northern Plains and North Central region, though the magnitude of the anomalies begins to decrease slightly, remaining 6 to 12°F above normal. The South Central region continues to trend below normal.

-Days 7-10: The warm anomaly across the Northern Plains and North Central region gradually diminishes but remains above normal. The South Central region, particularly across the Southern Plains and into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley, sees below-normal temperatures of 3 to 6°F develop and expand through the end of the period.

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WEST: The western United States will be influenced by a series of frontal boundaries and low pressure systems tracking through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies over the coming days. On Thursday, a low pressure system is positioned over the northern Rockies, bringing rain and thunderstorm activity to portions of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies. Rain and some mixed precipitation are noted along the Pacific Coast and into the Pacific Northwest. By Friday, a cold front pushes southward through the Pacific Northwest, bringing rain and thunderstorm activity to the region. Multiple low pressure systems are active across the West, maintaining unsettled conditions from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Basin and into the Desert Southwest. Mixed precipitation is possible at higher elevations across the northern Rockies and Intermountain West. By Saturday, a low pressure system tracks into the northern Rockies from the north, with a warm front extending northward. Rain and thunderstorm activity continue across the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and portions of the Great Basin. The Desert Southwest remains relatively quiet. Sunday brings a gradual transition, with the Pacific Northwest continuing to see rain and some thunderstorm activity, while the northern Rockies and Intermountain West see decreasing precipitation coverage as the frontal system pushes eastward.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: The Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies will be near to slightly above normal. The Great Basin, California, and Desert Southwest will see below-normal temperatures, running 3 to 9°F below average, with the most pronounced cold anomalies centered over Nevada and portions of California.

-Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures persist across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest, though the anomalies moderate somewhat. The Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies remain near to slightly above normal.

-Days 7-10: A notable warming trend develops across the West, with above-normal temperatures spreading across much of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Desert Southwest, running 3 to 9°F above average by the end of the period. This represents a significant pattern change for the region.

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TROPICAL: No tropical cyclone activity is expected across either the Atlantic or Pacific basins during the next seven days.