Near to above normal temperatures.

**General Overview:**

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS RAINFALL TOTALS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, WHILE A SEPARATE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL READINGS WILL SETTLE INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL REGIONS LATER IN THE PERIOD.

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**EAST:** A complex frontal pattern will keep the eastern United States active through much of the forecast period. To start the week, a broad area of thunderstorm activity extends from the Mid-Atlantic southward through the Carolinas and into the Southeast and Gulf Coast, with a high pressure system anchored over the central Appalachian region helping to funnel moisture onshore. The most significant concern during the early part of the period is across the Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley, where **heavy rain and flash flooding are possible**. Thunderstorm clusters are expected to repeatedly train over portions of the central Gulf Coast, with the threat of dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding in place. This heavy rain and flash flooding threat persists into the Monday through Tuesday timeframe as a low pressure system lingers near the central Gulf Coast, keeping a focus for excessive rainfall over the region.

As the week progresses, a cold front sweeping through the Northeast will bring a swath of rain and thunderstorms from the Great Lakes southeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic. By Wednesday, rain coverage expands across the Northeast and into New England as the frontal boundary pushes through. A low pressure system near the Northeast coast by Thursday will keep rain in the forecast for coastal areas, with the cold front eventually pushing the precipitation shield offshore. The Great Lakes region will see periods of rain and thunderstorms as frontal boundaries track through, with some mixed precipitation possible in the far northern reaches near the Canadian border during the early part of the period.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– **Days 1-3:** Temperatures will run slightly below normal across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and interior Northeast, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F below average. Much of the Southeast and Gulf Coast will be near to slightly above normal.

– **Days 4-6:** Above-normal temperatures build across the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley, with anomalies of 3 to 9°F above average. The Mid-Atlantic and coastal Northeast trend toward near-normal readings. Some below-normal temperatures are noted across portions of the Carolinas and Southeast by the end of this period.

– **Days 7-10:** Below-normal temperatures become more established across the Southeast and Carolinas, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F below average. The Great Lakes and Upper Midwest maintain a slightly above-normal signal. Portions of the Mid-Atlantic also trend a few degrees below normal by the end of the period.

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**CENTRAL:** The central United States will be one of the more active regions over the coming days. A low pressure system over the Central Plains early in the period will serve as a focal point for widespread thunderstorm development, with activity spreading from the Central Plains southward through the South Central region. **Heavy rain and flash flooding** remain the primary concern across the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast, where slow-moving thunderstorm complexes are expected to produce significant rainfall accumulations. This threat is particularly acute across portions of the South Central states and the central Gulf Coast through at least midweek.

As the week progresses, a cold front sweeping southward through the Northern Plains and into the Central Plains will bring additional rounds of thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity will be widespread from the Central Plains through the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley by mid-to-late week. Behind the front, drier and cooler conditions will gradually filter into the Northern Plains and North Central regions. The South Central region will continue to see active weather through the latter half of the period as moisture remains plentiful.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– **Days 1-3:** Temperatures across the Central Plains and South Central region will be near to slightly below normal in some areas, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F below average noted across portions of Texas and the Southern Plains. The Northern Plains trend above normal, with anomalies of 6 to 12°F or more above average, particularly across the Dakotas and into Minnesota.

– **Days 4-6:** A broad and pronounced above-normal temperature signal dominates the Northern and Central Plains, with anomalies of 6 to 12°F above average stretching from Montana and the Dakotas southward through Nebraska and Iowa. The South Central region, particularly Texas, trends below normal with anomalies of 3 to 6°F below average.

– **Days 7-10:** The above-normal temperature signal across the Northern Plains begins to erode, though some warmth persists across the north-central tier. A notable cold anomaly develops across the South Central region, with Texas seeing temperatures 3 to 9°F below normal by the end of the period. The Central Plains trend toward near-normal readings.

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**WEST:** The western United States will see an active pattern across the Pacific Northwest early in the period, with a frontal system bringing rain to the coast and mountain snow to the higher elevations. A warm front and associated low pressure system near the Pacific Northwest will keep precipitation chances elevated through the early part of the week, with mixed precipitation possible at some elevations. Behind this system, a cold front will sweep southward along the West Coast by Tuesday, spreading rain from the Pacific Northwest into Northern California. The interior West will remain relatively quiet, though scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Intermountain West.

By mid-to-late week, the active pattern across the Pacific Northwest diminishes somewhat as the frontal boundary pushes offshore. The Southwest will remain largely dry throughout the period. Temperatures across the West will be a notable story, with above-normal readings across the Northern Rockies and Intermountain West early in the period giving way to a cooling trend across the Southwest and Great Basin by the middle of the forecast period.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– **Days 1-3:** Above-normal temperatures are well established across the Northern Rockies, Intermountain West, and into the Pacific Northwest, with anomalies of 3 to 9°F above average. Portions of the Southwest and Southern California will be near to slightly below normal.

– **Days 4-6:** A significant cooling trend takes hold across the Great Basin, Southwest, and into the Pacific Coast, with anomalies dropping to 6 to 12°F below normal across portions of Nevada, Utah, and California. The Northern Rockies maintain above-normal temperatures, though the anomalies begin to moderate.

– **Days 7-10:** Below-normal temperatures persist across portions of the Great Basin and Southwest, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F below average. The Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies see a return to above-normal readings, while California trends back toward near-normal to slightly above-normal conditions.

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**TROPICAL:** The Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins are both quiet at this time. No tropical cyclone activity is expected across either basin during the next seven days, and no areas of disturbed weather are currently being monitored for potential development.