Near Average Temperatures

General Overview: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THROUGHOUT THIS WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH/CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

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EAST: A low pressure system is positioned off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday, accompanied by a cold front pushing through the region, bringing rain to much of the Northeast and New England. A trailing warm front extends back to the southwest, and additional rain and thunderstorm activity is noted along and ahead of these boundaries. The Great Lakes region is also seeing rain during this time frame, with a broad area of rainfall extending from the Upper Midwest southward. By Friday, the frontal system exits the immediate Northeast coastline, though rain lingers across portions of New England and the Great Lakes. A high pressure system builds in from the Atlantic, helping to push the cold front well offshore, though scattered rain and thunderstorm activity continues near the Gulf Coast and Florida. By Saturday, a cold front sweeps through the Great Lakes and Northeast, bringing a renewed round of rain and thunderstorms to the region. The most significant thunderstorm activity pushes into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, with rain extending into New England. By Sunday, the cold front has pushed well offshore of the Northeast, and conditions begin to quiet, though thunderstorm activity continues across portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast as a warm front lifts northward through the region.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1-3: Below normal by 3 to 6°F across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and coastal Northeast on Day 1; below normal anomalies of similar magnitude persist into the Great Lakes through Day 2, with the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast running 3 to 6°F below normal by Day 3.

– Days 4-6: A warming trend takes hold, with temperatures running near to slightly above normal across the Northeast by Day 4, then surging to 6 to over 12°F above normal across the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic corridor by Days 5 and 6.

– Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures remain entrenched across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with anomalies of 6 to 12°F or more above normal persisting through Day 7 and gradually moderating toward near-normal by Days 9 and 10, though the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast continue to run slightly above normal.

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CENTRAL: The Central region is the most active area of the forecast period. On Thursday, a low pressure system is situated over the Central Plains, with a warm front extending to the east and a cold front dropping to the south. Thunderstorm activity is widespread across the Central Plains, stretching from the Northern Plains southward through the South Central region. Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Central Plains on Thursday. By Friday, the low shifts eastward, and while some thunderstorm activity continues across portions of the Central Plains and into the Midwest, a secondary area of thunderstorm development is noted across the South Central region. Severe thunderstorms remain a threat across the Central Plains on Friday, with the hazard area focused over Kansas and surrounding areas. By Saturday, a broad and expansive area of thunderstorm activity erupts across the Central Plains, Midwest, and into the Ohio Valley, driven by a strengthening low pressure system. This represents the most widespread severe weather threat of the period, with thunderstorms covering an enormous swath from the Central Plains through the Great Lakes. By Sunday, the warm front associated with the central low lifts northward across the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest, with thunderstorm activity continuing across the Central Plains, South Central, and into the Southeast. Rain is noted across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest as the system evolves. 

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1-3: Near normal to slightly above normal across much of the Central Plains and Midwest on Days 1 and 2, with a slight below-normal signal of 3 to 6°F developing across portions of the Upper Midwest by Day 3.

– Days 4-6: A significant warm-up takes shape, with temperatures running 6 to over 12°F above normal across the Central Plains and Midwest by Days 4 and 5. By Day 6, a strong cold push brings below-normal anomalies of 6 to over 12°F to the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies, while the southern and eastern portions of the Central region remain well above normal.

– Days 7-10: Below-normal temperatures spread across the Northern Plains and into the Central Plains by Day 7, with anomalies of 3 to 9°F below normal. Temperatures gradually moderate back toward near normal across the Central region by Days 8 through 10, with only isolated above-normal signals remaining.

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WEST: The West is largely dominated by a strong and persistent above-normal temperature regime through much of the forecast period. On Thursday, a low pressure system is noted off the California coast, with rain and mixed precipitation occurring across portions of the Pacific Northwest and into the Northern Rockies. Snow is noted at higher elevations across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. By Friday, precipitation continues across the Pacific Northwest, with rain, mixed precipitation, and snow occurring across the region. The interior West remains largely dry. By Saturday, precipitation continues across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, with snow at higher elevations and rain at lower elevations. The remainder of the West stays dry. By Sunday, precipitation continues across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, with the pattern remaining active in that region while the rest of the West stays quiet.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1-3: Exceptionally above-normal temperatures dominate the Intermountain West, Southwest, and into the Northern Rockies, with anomalies of 12°F or more above normal across portions of the Great Basin and Rockies on Days 1 and 2. Anomalies moderate somewhat by Day 3 but remain 3 to 9°F above normal across most of the West.

– Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures persist across the Southwest and into the Intermountain West, with anomalies of 3 to 9°F above normal. The Pacific Northwest begins to cool, with near-normal to slightly below-normal temperatures developing by Days 5 and 6 as an active weather pattern keeps the region cooler.

– Days 7-10: The above-normal temperature signal becomes more confined to the Pacific Coast and Southwest by Days 7 through 10, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F above normal. The interior West trends toward near normal, and the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains see a brief below-normal signal early in this window before moderating.

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TROPICAL: The tropical weather outlook for both the Atlantic basin and the Eastern Pacific basin indicates that no tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next seven days.