Mostly Dry Today
Mostly dry conditions are expected today with showers and thunderstorms possible across northern areas late this evening and overnight.
GENERAL OVERVIEW: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE COMING DAYS. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WILL DRIVE WIDESPREAD RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS, AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SEE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DOMINANT THEME ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES, PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY ON.
EAST:
A cold front sweeping through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region on Tuesday will bring rain and thunderstorms to the upper Great Lakes and portions of the Northeast. Rain is currently ongoing across portions of the upper Great Lakes and into the Northeast, with a cold front extending from the Great Lakes southwestward. Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region during this period. As the front progresses eastward through Wednesday, rain and thunderstorm activity will shift into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, with mixed precipitation possible across portions of the eastern Great Lakes. By Thursday, rain and thunderstorm activity will expand across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with rain continuing across the Great Lakes region. A high pressure system will settle into the Northeast by Thursday, helping to push the frontal boundary southward. Rain and thunderstorm activity will persist across the Southeast and eastern Gulf Coast through much of the period, with thunderstorms continuing along the Gulf Coast into Friday. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will see lingering rain and thunderstorm activity through the end of the week.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal across much of the East, with modest above-normal readings across the Tennessee Valley, Southeast, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. The upper Great Lakes and portions of the Northeast will see near-normal to slightly below-normal temperatures early, trending above normal by Day 3 across the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley, where anomalies of 6 to locally more than 12 degrees above normal are indicated.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures will become more widespread and pronounced across the East, particularly across the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal are expected across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, with above-normal readings extending into the Northeast and Southeast as well.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures gradually moderate but remain slightly above normal across portions of the Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. Much of the Northeast and Great Lakes region trends toward near-normal conditions by the end of the period.
CENTRAL:
A vigorous frontal system will be the dominant weather feature across the central United States early in the period. On Monday and Tuesday, a low pressure system tracking across the central Plains will generate widespread rain and thunderstorms from the southern Plains northward through the central and northern Plains and into the upper Midwest. Heavy rain and flash flooding are possible across portions of Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, and into Iowa and Illinois, with severe thunderstorms also possible across portions of Nebraska and Kansas into Missouri during this timeframe. A separate area of heavy rain and flash flooding is also indicated across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. By Wednesday, the heavy rain and flash flooding threat shifts eastward into Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois, with rain and thunderstorm activity continuing broadly across the central and northern Plains and into the upper Midwest. Thunderstorm activity will persist across the southern Plains and western Gulf Coast throughout the period. By Thursday and into Friday, a new low pressure system develops across the central Plains, with rain and thunderstorm activity continuing across the northern and central Plains, and a cold front pushing southward through the region. Thunderstorms will remain active across the southern Plains and western Gulf Coast through Friday.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures will be well above normal across the central and southern Plains, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal centered over Oklahoma and Kansas, extending into Nebraska, Missouri, and portions of Texas. The northern Plains will be near normal to slightly above normal.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures continue across the central Plains and southern Plains, though anomalies gradually moderate somewhat. Readings remain 6 or more degrees above normal across portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri, with above-normal temperatures extending into the Midwest.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperature anomalies across the central region continue to diminish, with most areas trending toward near-normal conditions by the end of the period. Isolated pockets of slight above-normal readings may persist across portions of the southern Plains.
WEST:
Multiple low pressure systems will impact the Pacific Northwest and portions of the Intermountain West throughout the forecast period. Rain is ongoing across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies on Monday, associated with a low pressure system tracking through the region. Precipitation will continue across the Pacific Northwest and into portions of the northern Rockies through Tuesday and Wednesday, with additional low pressure systems maintaining unsettled conditions. Scattered rain and thunderstorm activity will also be present across portions of the Great Basin, Southwest, and southern Rockies through much of the period, associated with low pressure systems tracking through Arizona, New Mexico, and southern Utah. By Thursday and Friday, thunderstorm and rain activity continues across portions of the Intermountain West and northern Rockies, with a low pressure system lingering over the northern Rockies region.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Below-normal temperatures are prominent across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees below normal across portions of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho on Day 1, moderating somewhat by Day 3 but remaining below normal across Montana and northern Idaho. The Southwest and southern Rockies will be slightly above normal.
-Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures across the Northwest diminish significantly, with most of the West trending toward near-normal conditions. Slight above-normal readings persist across portions of the Southwest and southern Rockies. The Pacific Northwest sees a brief return to slightly above-normal temperatures by Day 5 and 6.
-Days 7-10: Temperatures across the West are generally near normal to slightly above normal, with modest above-normal anomalies across portions of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest. No significant cold or warm anomalies are indicated through the end of the period.
TROPICAL:
In the Atlantic basin, a disturbance is being monitored in the central Atlantic, located roughly between 25 and 30 degrees north latitude. Development is not expected with this system over the next seven days, and it poses no threat to land areas at this time.
In the Eastern Pacific, two tropical systems are currently active. Tropical Storm Norbert is located well to the southwest of Hawaii in the central Pacific, tracking generally westward. Separately, Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is located in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico. Both systems are being monitored, though neither currently poses a direct threat to the continental United States. Fifteen-E has been referenced in association with moisture being drawn northward into the southwestern United States and Mexico, contributing to the unsettled weather pattern across the Southwest and southern Plains.