Mostly Dry To End The Week

General Overview: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DRIVE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WHERE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DANGEROUS RAINFALL TOTALS. A BROAD AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL LOW PUSHES PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. MEANWHILE, MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP THE INTERIOR WEST UNSETTLED WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, WHILE A POTENT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY WILL SPREAD A WIDE SWATH OF RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS, AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. WELL-BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH BUILDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

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**EAST:** The eastern United States will be heavily impacted by precipitation through the weekend and into early next week. On Saturday, a coastal low pressure system positioned off the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coastline will drive an expansive area of rain northward along the Eastern Seaboard, with the rain shield extending well inland across the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and into the Northeast. A warm front associated with this system will push moisture northward, while the cold front sweeps rain and thunderstorm activity through the region. Portions of the Gulf Coast and Florida will also see active weather, with thunderstorm activity possible along and ahead of the frontal boundary. **Heavy rain and flash flooding will be a primary concern across the Gulf Coast and lower Southeast through this period, as training convection may produce locally significant rainfall totals.**

By Sunday, the coastal low begins to pull away, but rain lingers across the Northeast and New England, with some mixed precipitation possible across interior portions of the region. The Great Lakes will also see continued rain and snow activity as the system tracks northeastward. High pressure building across the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Atlantic will help suppress activity across the Southeast by Sunday, though scattered showers may linger near the Florida Peninsula.

Into Monday and Tuesday, a new and more potent low pressure system developing across the South Central region will rapidly organize and push a broad cold front northeastward. This will bring a wide swath of rain and thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and into the Northeast. **The threat for heavy rainfall and potentially severe thunderstorms will increase across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic corridor as this system strengthens.** Ahead of the cold front, warm and moist air will fuel active convection, while the cold side of the system will produce snow and mixed precipitation across the Great Lakes and interior Northeast. By Tuesday evening, an occluded front will be draped across the Northeast as the system matures, with snow and mixed precipitation possible across northern New England and the upper Great Lakes. Rain will continue along and ahead of the cold front, which will extend from the Northeast southwestward through the Mid-South.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– **Days 1–3:** Temperatures will run 3 to 9°F below normal across much of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and interior Northeast. The Mid-Atlantic and southern New England will also be on the cool side, running near to slightly below normal. No significant warm anomalies are noted across the East during this period.

– **Days 4–6:** Below-normal temperatures persist across the Southeast, Gulf Coast states, and into the Mid-Atlantic, with anomalies of 3 to 9°F below normal. The interior Northeast and New England begin to moderate, with some areas trending toward near-normal or slightly above-normal readings by Day 6, particularly across the mid-Atlantic corridor.

– **Days 7–10:** The below-normal temperature signal gradually relaxes across much of the East, though the Great Lakes and portions of the Northeast may still see readings running a few degrees below normal. The Mid-Atlantic region trends toward near to slightly above normal by the end of the period.

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**CENTRAL:** The central United States will be at the heart of the most dynamic weather pattern over the coming days. On Saturday, a low pressure system positioned over the Northern Plains will be the primary driver of precipitation across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, with rain and snow affecting portions of the region. Meanwhile, high pressure over the South Central states will keep conditions relatively quiet across the Central and Southern Plains to start the period, though temperatures will be running well below normal.

By Sunday, a low pressure system over the Central Plains will begin to organize, with a cold front sweeping southeastward and triggering rain and thunderstorm activity from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley. Snow will continue across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest behind the front. The Southern Plains will remain largely dry under high pressure influence, but the cold anomaly will be pronounced, particularly across the South Central region.

The most impactful weather for the Central region will develop Monday through Tuesday, as a deepening low pressure system over the South Central Plains drives a powerful cold front northeastward. **A broad corridor of rain and thunderstorms will erupt from the Central Plains through the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes, with the potential for heavy rainfall and severe weather.** On the cold side of this system, snow and mixed precipitation will be possible across the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and into the Great Lakes. By Tuesday, the cold front will extend from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley, with thunderstorm activity continuing along and ahead of the boundary. The Northern and Central Rockies will also see periods of rain and mountain snow throughout the period as multiple disturbances track through the region.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– **Days 1–3:** The most dramatic cold anomalies will be centered over the Central and Southern Plains, with departures of 6 to more than 12°F below normal, particularly across the South Central region. The Northern and Central Plains will also run 6 to 9°F below normal. The Upper Midwest will be 3 to 9°F below normal as well.

– **Days 4–6:** Below-normal temperatures persist across the South Central states and Central Plains, with anomalies of 3 to 9°F below normal. The North Central region begins to moderate slightly, though readings remain below normal. A slight warming trend begins to emerge across portions of the Central Plains by Day 6, with near-normal to slightly above-normal readings in isolated areas.

– **Days 7–10:** The below-normal temperature signal remains entrenched across the Central Plains and Upper Midwest, with anomalies of 3 to more than 12°F below normal, particularly across the North Central states. The South Central region begins to trend back toward near-normal by the end of the period.

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**WEST:** The western United States will experience an unsettled pattern throughout the forecast period, driven by a series of low pressure systems and troughs affecting the Pacific Coast and interior West. On Saturday, multiple low pressure centers are positioned along the Pacific Coast and interior Southwest, bringing widespread rain and mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and portions of the Great Basin. The Sierra Nevada and Cascades will see accumulating mountain snow, while lower elevations receive rain. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible across the Desert Southwest and into the Southern Rockies.

By Sunday, low pressure over the Great Basin and Southwest continues to bring rain and mountain snow to the interior West, with the Northern Rockies and Cascades remaining active. The Pacific Northwest will see continued rounds of rain and higher-elevation snow as additional moisture streams onshore. The Southwest will also see isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Into Monday and Tuesday, a low pressure system over the Northern Rockies will keep precipitation active across the region, with rain and snow continuing across the Cascades, Northern Rockies, and portions of the Great Basin. The Southwest will see lingering shower activity. By Tuesday, the precipitation pattern across the West begins to consolidate, with the most active weather focused on the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, while the Southwest gradually dries out.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– **Days 1–3:** The Pacific Northwest will stand out as the warmest region in the country, with temperature anomalies running 6 to more than 12°F above normal across portions of the region. The interior Northwest and Northern Rockies will also be above normal. In contrast, the Desert Southwest and portions of the Great Basin will run slightly below normal, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F below normal.

– **Days 4–6:** The above-normal temperature signal across the Pacific Northwest intensifies and expands, with anomalies exceeding 12°F above normal in some locations. The warmth spreads into the Northern Rockies and portions of the Great Basin. The Southwest and southern portions of the interior West will see near-normal to slightly below-normal temperatures.

– **Days 7–10:** Above-normal temperatures continue to dominate the West, with the warmth becoming more widespread across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and into the Southwest. Anomalies of 6 to more than 12°F above normal are expected across much of the region by the end of the period, signaling a significant warming trend for the western United States.

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**TROPICAL:** The tropics are currently quiet across both the Atlantic and Pacific basins. No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next seven days, and there are no active disturbances being monitored for development at this time.