Mostly dry conditions

**General Overview:**

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREATS FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION WILL DRIVE A BROAD SWATH OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSING A SERIOUS THREAT — PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SNOW WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE A BROAD AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE A WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

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**EAST:** The eastern United States will be caught in an active pattern through the forecast period, with rain and thunderstorms affecting a broad area from the Ohio Valley southward through the Southeast and Gulf Coast. On Thursday, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will keep conditions relatively quiet across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, though rain will be ongoing across portions of the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast. As a low pressure system develops and tracks northeastward out of the South Central region through Friday and into the weekend, a warm front will extend across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, fueling widespread thunderstorm activity across the region. Rain will be the dominant precipitation type from the Carolinas northward through the Mid-Atlantic and into New England, while thunderstorms will be more prevalent from the Tennessee Valley southward through the Gulf Coast states. By Saturday evening, the low pressure center will have shifted into the Ohio Valley, with a cold front sweeping through the region and a secondary low developing near the Mid-Atlantic coast. This frontal passage will maintain a broad area of thunderstorms across the Southeast and Gulf Coast, while rain transitions to the northern tier of the East. By Sunday, the low will be positioned over the Ohio Valley, continuing to drive rain and thunderstorm coverage across the Southeast and Gulf Coast, with a warm front and associated cold front extending off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The Northeast will see lingering rain through the period before conditions gradually improve. The Great Lakes region will experience rain transitioning to a mix of precipitation types along the northern fringe of the system as colder air filters in from Canada.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– **Days 1–3:** Temperatures across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will run well above normal, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12°F above average — particularly pronounced across the interior Northeast and the Appalachian corridor. The Southeast will be near to slightly above normal. By Day 3, above-normal readings begin to moderate somewhat across the Northeast, though pockets of above-normal temperatures persist.

– **Days 4–6:** Temperature anomalies across the East become more modest. A slight below-normal signal emerges briefly near the Mid-Atlantic and parts of New England around Day 5, while the Ohio Valley and interior Southeast remain near to slightly above normal. By Day 6, above-normal temperatures return to portions of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

– **Days 7–10:** A warming trend becomes well established across the eastern United States. Above-normal temperatures of 3 to 6°F or more spread across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic through the end of the period, with the warmest anomalies concentrated across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Near-normal to slightly below-normal readings may linger along the immediate Atlantic Coast early in this window before giving way to the broader warm pattern.

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**CENTRAL:** The central United States will be the focal point for the most impactful weather of the forecast period. On Wednesday into Thursday, a complex of low pressure systems and frontal boundaries will set the stage for significant weather across the region. Severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the South Central states — particularly over and near the Southern Plains — where the combination of instability and wind shear will support the threat for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. **Heavy rain and flash flooding will be a significant concern** across the South Central states, especially from the Southern Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley, as slow-moving thunderstorm complexes tap into deep moisture. This heavy rain and flash flooding threat will be especially pronounced Thursday into Friday as the low deepens and tracks northeastward. Mixed precipitation, including snow, will impact the Northern Rockies and adjacent Northern Plains through Thursday, with wintry conditions possible at higher elevations and across the northern tier. By Friday, the low pressure center will be positioned over the South Central region, with a warm front extending eastward and a cold front dropping southward — maintaining widespread thunderstorm activity from the Central Plains through the Gulf Coast. As the system lifts northeastward through the weekend, rain and thunderstorms will continue to affect the Central and Southern Plains, with the heaviest rainfall threat gradually shifting eastward. By Sunday, the central United States will begin to see a gradual drying trend from west to east as the system departs.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– **Days 1–3:** The central United States will experience a pronounced cold anomaly, with temperatures running 6 to more than 12°F below normal across the Central Rockies, Central Plains, and Northern Plains. The coldest departures will be centered over the Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. The South Central region will be near normal to slightly below normal.

– **Days 4–6:** The below-normal temperature signal gradually moderates across the Central Plains, though readings remain 3 to 6°F below average across portions of the Central Plains and Central Rockies through Day 4. By Days 5 and 6, temperatures trend back toward or slightly below normal across much of the central region, with isolated below-normal pockets persisting over the South Central states.

– **Days 7–10:** A significant warming trend takes hold across the central United States. Above-normal temperatures of 3 to 6°F spread broadly across the Central Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes by Days 7 through 10, with the warmest anomalies concentrated over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The South Central region trends near to slightly above normal by the end of the period.

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**WEST:** The western United States will see a more active weather pattern across the northern tier early in the period. A low pressure system over the Intermountain West on Wednesday will drive mixed precipitation — including snow at higher elevations — across the Northern Rockies, with wintry conditions extending into portions of the Northern Plains. Rain and snow showers will be scattered across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies through Thursday as additional energy moves through the region. The Southwest will remain relatively quiet and dry through much of the period. By Friday, the active weather will shift eastward, and the West will trend drier overall, with high pressure building across the region through the weekend and into next week.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– **Days 1–3:** Temperatures across the West will be generally below normal, with the most significant cold anomalies of 6 to 9°F below average concentrated over the Central Rockies and portions of the Intermountain West. California will be near to slightly above normal, particularly along the coast. The Pacific Northwest will be near normal.

– **Days 4–6:** A warming trend begins to develop across the West, particularly along the Pacific Coast and into the Intermountain West. Above-normal temperatures of 3 to 6°F emerge across California, the Pacific Northwest, and the Great Basin by Days 5 and 6, while the Central Rockies trend back toward near normal.

– **Days 7–10:** Above-normal temperatures become more widespread across the western United States, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F above average extending from the Pacific Coast inland across the Intermountain West and into the Northern Rockies. The warming trend is well established across the region by the end of the period, with only isolated near-normal pockets remaining.

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**TROPICAL:** Tropical cyclone activity is not expected across either the Atlantic basin or the eastern Pacific basin during the next seven days. No active storms, disturbances, or areas of development concern are currently being monitored in either basin.