Mostly Dry Conditions

**General Overview:**

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREATS CENTERED ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST. A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DRIVE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS — INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER — FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE A BROAD AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATES THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SURGES INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY BY MID-PERIOD.

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**EAST:** A cold front sweeping through the region on Friday evening will bring rain to much of the Northeast and into the Mid-Atlantic, with snow possible across interior portions of northern New England. High pressure situated over the Southeast will keep conditions relatively quiet across the Carolinas and much of the Southeast initially, though rain will be noted along the immediate Gulf Coast and into southern Florida. By Saturday evening, the cold front pushes offshore and the Northeast transitions to a period of rain, with mixed precipitation possible across the interior Great Lakes and northern New England. A notable area of thunderstorm activity will develop and expand across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region as the frontal system advances, with rain spreading broadly across the Mid-Atlantic and into New England. Severe thunderstorms will be a concern across portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley corridor during this timeframe. By Sunday evening, a warm front lifting northeastward will focus heavy rainfall and thunderstorm activity across the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A cold front trailing southward will push through the region, with thunderstorms continuing to pose a threat across a wide area from the Tennessee Valley northward through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. As the pattern evolves into Monday, a deepening low pressure system near the upper Great Lakes will drive a cold front southward through the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with widespread thunderstorm activity persisting across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. Rain will be widespread across the Northeast and into New England as the system pushes through. Snow will be possible across the far northern Great Lakes region behind the cold front.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– Days 1–3: Temperatures will run below normal across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, with anomalies of 6 to locally more than 12°F below average. The Northeast will also trend below normal on Day 2, before a warming trend returns by Day 3 as above-normal temperatures spread into the region from the south and west. The Southeast will be near to slightly below normal.

– Days 4–6: A significant warming trend takes hold across the East. The Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes will surge to well above normal, with anomalies of 6 to greater than 12°F above average by Days 5 and 6. The Northeast will also trend above normal, particularly along the coastal corridor.

– Days 7–10: Above-normal temperatures persist and even intensify across the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and Ohio Valley, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12°F above average focused from the central Appalachians northward through New England. The Southeast transitions to near-normal conditions by the end of the period.

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**CENTRAL:** The most significant weather threat over the next several days will be centered on the Central Plains and Midwest, where a series of low pressure systems will generate rounds of severe thunderstorms. On Friday evening, a low pressure system over the Central Plains will be the focal point for thunderstorm development, with **severe thunderstorms possible** across portions of the Central Plains — particularly over Kansas and into Missouri. This severe weather threat is a highlighted concern heading into the weekend. By Saturday evening, the threat for severe thunderstorms continues and even expands, with activity spreading from the Central Plains northeastward through the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley. A warm front will be draped from the Central Plains into the lower Great Lakes, helping to focus the most intense convective activity. Thunderstorms will be widespread from the South Central region northward through the Central Plains and into the upper Midwest. By Sunday evening, the low pressure system will have shifted into the Central Plains and Midwest, with a warm front extending into the Great Lakes and a cold front sweeping westward. Thunderstorm activity will be widespread and heavy rain will be a concern across the South Central region and northward through the Central Plains. Snow will be noted across the Northern Plains behind the cold front as colder air filters in. By Monday, the cold front will have pushed through much of the Central region, with snow and mixed precipitation possible across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest. Thunderstorms will continue to be the primary hazard across the South Central region and lower Mississippi Valley.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– Days 1–3: The Central Plains and South Central region will be near to slightly below normal on Day 1, with the Northern Plains running near normal. By Days 2 and 3, a broad warming trend takes hold across the Central Plains and South Central region, with above-normal temperatures of 6 to greater than 12°F developing, particularly across the Central Plains, South Central, and into the lower Midwest.

– Days 4–6: Temperatures will surge well above normal across the Central Plains, South Central, and Midwest, with anomalies of 6 to greater than 12°F above average. The most pronounced warmth will be focused from the Central Plains through the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley by Days 5 and 6.

– Days 7–10: Above-normal temperatures gradually moderate across the Central Plains and South Central region, trending closer to near-normal by the end of the period. The Northern Plains will continue to see below-normal temperatures through much of the extended period, with anomalies of 6 to locally more than 12°F below average persisting through Days 7 and 8 before moderating.

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**WEST:** The West will be dominated by a broad area of above-normal temperatures through much of the period, with the most notable warmth centered over the Intermountain West and Southwest. A low pressure system off the California coast on Friday evening will bring some precipitation to the Pacific Coast, while snow will continue to impact the higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. By Saturday, the Pacific Northwest will continue to see a mix of rain, snow, and mixed precipitation across the mountains, with additional low pressure activity keeping the region unsettled. The Intermountain West will remain largely dry but warm. A low pressure system near the California coast will persist into Sunday, maintaining the potential for precipitation along the immediate Pacific Coast. Snow will continue in the northern Rockies and Cascades. By Monday, the Pacific Northwest will remain active with rain and mountain snow, while the remainder of the West trends drier.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– Days 1–3: Temperatures will run well above normal across the Intermountain West, Southwest, and into the Rockies, with anomalies of 6 to greater than 12°F above average — particularly over the central Rockies and Great Basin. The Pacific Northwest will be near to slightly below normal.

– Days 4–6: Above-normal temperatures persist across the Southwest and portions of the Intermountain West, though anomalies will moderate somewhat. The Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies will trend below normal, with anomalies of 6 to greater than 12°F below average developing by Days 5 and 6 across the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.

– Days 7–10: Below-normal temperatures will be confined primarily to the northern Rockies and portions of the northern Great Basin, while the Southwest and California will return to near-normal or slightly above-normal conditions. Much of the West will trend toward near-normal by the end of the period.

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**TROPICAL:** The Atlantic basin and the Eastern Pacific basin are both quiet at this time. No tropical cyclone activity is expected across either basin during the next seven days, and there are no areas of active development being monitored.