Mostly Dry

A RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES AND A SUBTLE TROUGH OUT EAST WILL FAVOR COOL TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EAST LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. QUIETER CONDITIONS RETURN BRIEFLY THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS WITH A COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNING TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS NEXT WEEK.

EAST: A slow moving storm system will move into the east today and Thursday and bring widespread moderate rain for most areas and some thunderstorms to the south. Some strong or severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast. Rain will continue into Friday across the Northeast with a few thunderstorms possible as well. Quieter weather then settles in through the weekend with just some scattered rain showers possible. Some active weather will occur in the Mid-Atlantic for next week, with moderate rain and thunderstorms expected. The Northeast could see some scattered rain showers at times next week with a chance for some high elevation snow as well. 

Temperatures:
– Some warming expected today throughout the eastern seaboard, but still only near to 5 degrees above average.
– Another shot for colder air will slide in by later Thursday and Friday, with temperatures running 2-8 degrees below normal, coolest in the Mid-Atlantic.
– Temperatures will briefly warm to near to 10 degrees above normal for Sunday. 
– Below normal temperatures will return for much of week, with cold anomalies around 10-20 degrees by later next week. 

CENTRAL: A substantial ridge will build today through Saturday, bringing tranquil weather. Thunderstorms will develop on the fringe of the ridge later this weekend into Monday, mainly targeting the northern Plains. A stormier pattern could develop across the Central Plains next week, with moderate rain and thunderstorms. Scattered rain is expected further north with some snow mixing in near the Canadian border. 

Temperatures:
– Temperatures will run 6-18 degrees above normal for most areas through the rest of the week, the largest departures will be in western sections.
– A brief shot of cold air will swing through the Upper Midwest today, with temperatures closer to normal.
– Warmth continues into the weekend and early next week, with the warmest anomalies sliding into the Southern Plains. Temp of 5-10 degrees above normal for most continue with near to below normal temperatures expected in the Northern Plains by Monday and Tuesday.
– Near to below normal temperatures are expected for most areas by the middle of next week. Temperatures could fall to 10-20 degrees below normal by late next week, with the coldest air across the north.

WEST: A ridge will continue to bring warmth to much of the region through this week, with a few storm system clipping the Pacific Northwest today and Thursday with rain showers. Things may turn a tad stormier in the Northwest for the weekend into early next week. Dry weather will return for most areas by the middle of next week as the ridge builds again.

Temperatures:
– Temperatures of 10-20 degrees above normal likely across the Southwest the rest of the week, 6-12 degrees above elsewhere.
– Some cooling is possible by the weekend with temperatures closer to normal across the Pacific Northwest and 5-15 degrees above normal elsewhere.
– Cooler air will settle in briefly for most areas early next week with temperatures near to 10 degrees below normal.
– Temperatures will quickly moderate to 10-20 degrees above normal again for the middle and end of next week.

Model Discussion:
– The forecast remains a blend of ECMWF/GFS/GEM models through the end of the week with ensembles used thereafter.
– The overall pattern through this week will feature warmth out west, cooler east. A few fluctuations in the West and Central will occur at times, confidence is lowest in central areas.
– Temperatures may trend higher in areas east of the Rockies. Much of the period will favor downslope/warming winds.
– Weak clippers or shortwave trough may quickly move through the Northern Plains and Great Lakes through this upcoming weekend, bringing brief cool shots and gusty winds, yet temperatures should still average above normal.
– A more significant cold push will affect central and eastern areas for next week, bringing below normal temperatures for much of the central and east.

Meteorologist: Michael Phillips/David Moran