MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for December 31st:

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— AAR: Petroleum Carloads Up 1% for Week to Dec. 27

— EIA reports 38 Bcf Injection into US NatGas Storage Last Wk

— WTI, Brent Post Steepest Annual Loss Since the Pandemic

— EIA: PADD 3 Gasoline Inventory Reaches Multi-Month High

— EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stocks Fall for Third Week

— Analysis: U.S. Energy Dominance To Face Supply Glut in 2026

— EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline Stocks Climb to 8-Mo High Last Week

— EIA: U.S. Ethanol Output Increases, Stocks 0.6% Down on Year

— EIA: PADD 1 Gasoline Stocks Hit February High Last Week

— EIA: Crude Stocks Down 1.9M Bbl on Week, Fuels Continue Builds

— EIA: Propane/Propylene Stocks Up on Wk, Increase 18% on Yr

NEWS:

AAR: Petroleum Carloads Up 1% for Week to Dec. 27

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) data show petroleum and petroleum product carloads totaled 9,211 in the week ending December 27, up by 1% from the same week a year ago.

Year to date, petroleum and petroleum products carloads totaled 538,051, down 1.6% from the corresponding period of the prior year, an AAR report published on Wednesday (12/31) showed.

Total U.S. weekly rail traffic at 392,295 carloads and intermodal units in the week profiled was down 0.7% when compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week-ended December 27 reached 188,673, up 2.5% compared to the same week last year, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 203,622 containers and trailers, a 1% decrease from the previous year.

For the full 52 weeks of 2025, U.S. railroads reported a cumulative volume of 11,509,099 carloads, up 1.5% on the year. Intermodal units totaled 14,055,601, also up 1.5% from the prior year.

Total combined U.S. traffic for the 52 weeks of the year was 25,564,700 carloads and intermodal units, another 1.5% increase on last year.

EIA reports 38 Bcf Injection into US NatGas Storage Last Wk

Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (12/31) show a 38 billion cubic feet withdrawal into U.S. natural gas storage to 3.375 trillion cubic feet in the week ended December 26.

Natural gas in U.S. storage is 1.6% lower than last year and 1.7% above the five-year average of 3.317 Tcf.

Regionally, EIA reports the East registered a 15 Bcf withdrawal to 736 Bcf, 2.1% less than a year ago and 4.5% lower than the five-year average.

Natural gas in storage in the Midwest decreased 39 Bcf week-on-week to 865 Bcf, a 6.1% deficit compared to the same week a year ago and 6.9% lower than the five-year average.

Mountain region natural gas in storage decreased 2 Bcf, up 0.4% year-on-year to 27.5% above the five-year average.

South Central storage rose 13 Bcf to 1203 Bcf, 0.3% more than in the same week last year and 3.8% above the five-year average.

WTI, Brent Post Steepest Annual Loss Since the Pandemic

Oil futures concluded 2025 with a 19% annual loss, the steepest since the 2020 coronavirus outbreak.

The front-month NYMEX WTI settled at $57.42 bbl below the $71.25 reported in the last day of last year. The ICE Brent contract for February closed at $60.85 bbl versus the 2024 close of $74.64. The declines resulted in an average yearly loss of 19% for the two benchmarks, the steepest since their pandemic year drop of about 21%.

In 2025, the average WTI futures contract price was $62.31 bbl, while the average ICE Brent futures contract price was $65.83 bb. This resulted in a spread of $3.50 -narrower than the $4.50 spread the prior year, but higher than the $2.80 recorded during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

The downturn in crude markets came after OPEC prioritized market share over price, unwinding post-pandemic production cuts that added nearly 2.9 million bpd back into the global market. Record high U.S. production, at 13.9 million bpd, added to the glut.

Supply risks, however, limited some of the downside in crude prices as Western sanctions were tightened on Russian barrels due to the Ukraine war and a U.S. naval blockade restricted the movement of Venezuelan oil.

EIA: PADD 3 Gasoline Inventory Reaches Multi-Month High

U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) gasoline inventories continued climbing and hitting multi-month highs last week amid builds in distillate and jet fuel stocks, according to Energy Information Administration data released late Monday (12/29).

Motor gasoline inventories in the Gulf Coast region amounted to 91 million bbl during the week ended December 26, a 2.9 million bbl increase from prior week to reach an 11-month high for the second consecutive week. This was the highest build since January 24 when it was at 91.617 million, the same data showed. Gasoline stocks were also 4.6 million bbl higher than the volume recorded in the same week last year.

The region saw zero imports in the reference week, compared to 22,000 bpd the prior week and 48,000 bpd in the same week of 2024.

Distillate fuel oil stocks in PADD 3 climbed by 1.2 million bbl to 49.7 million bbl on a weekly basis. This represented a 10 million bbl increase year-over-year, the EIA reported.

In contrast, jet fuel inventories on the Gulf Coast increased by 800,000 bbl to 15 million bbl on a weekly basis and 2.5 million bbl above the same week of the prior year.

As a net exporter of distillates, gasoline and jet fuel, USGC PADD 3 does not report imports of those products.

The largest build in PADD 3 last week was driven by higher refining utilization in the reference week, when it reached 97.8% compared to 97.1% the prior week.

Weak demand and ample supply fundamentals kept USGC fuel prices the most competitive nationwide last week. Average retail gasoline prices in PADD 3 declined by 5.3cts from the previous week and were 42.1cts lower than the national average of $2.811 gallon, according to EIA data released Tuesday (12/30).

Diesel retail prices also fell by 3cts to average $3.184 gallon last week; 31.6cts below the nationwide average of $3.50 gallon.

EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stocks Fall for Third Week

U.S. West Coast (PADD 5) gasoline inventories fell for a third consecutive week in the week ending December 26, while distillate and jet fuel stocks also declined and crude oil inventories were mixed, according to Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (12/31).

Motor gasoline inventories in PADD 5 totaled 29.6 million bbl last week, down by 300,000 bbl from 29.9 million bbl a week earlier, EIA data showed. Despite the weekly decline, gasoline stocks were 800,000 bbl higher than the same week last year. Inventories remained above recent lows but were well off earlier levels, with the most recent comparable low recorded in the week ended Nov. 28, when stocks stood at 27.7 million bbl. Gasoline imports into the region averaged 1,000 bpd in the reference week, down from 2,000 bpd the prior week and flat compared with the same period in 2024.

West Coast distillate fuel inventories fell by 300,000 bbl to 11.6 million bbl week over week and were flat compared with the same week last year. Distillate imports averaged 3,000 bpd in the reference week, compared with 17,000 bpd the prior week and 6,000 bpd during the same period last year.

Jet fuel inventories declined by 800,000 bbl to 11.3 million bbl last week, though they remained 100,000 bbl higher than the same week last year. Jet fuel imports were reported at zero in the week ended December 26, compared with 170,000 bpd a week earlier.

Crude oil inventories in PADD 5 climbed by 200,000 bbl to 47.5 million bbl in the profiled week but remained 2.8 million bbl below the same period last year, EIA data showed.

Gasoline prices in PADD 5 declined by 3.7cts from the previous week, maintaining the region’s position as the most expensive fuel market in the nation. West Coast gasoline averaged 92.0cts above the national average of $2.811 gallon, according to EIA data released Tuesday (12/30).

Analysis: U.S. Energy Dominance To Face Supply Glut in 2026

As 2025 draws to a close, the U.S. oil industry finds itself at a crossroads. The pursuit of energy dominance has successfully pushed domestic production to record highs. Yet, this milestone arrives just as a global supply surge – led primarily by OPEC+ – sends prices tumbling toward four-year lows.

The result is a sector paradox where, despite solidifying its role as the world’s leading producer, the U.S. is facing a price environment that tests the economic limits of the drillers who made it possible.

While the revival of “Drill, Baby, Drill!” defined the domestic production landscape, analysts point out that the 20% drop in crude prices for 2025 is a global phenomenon driven largely by forces outside the Permian.

Beginning in April, OPEC and its allies began unwinding production cuts to reclaim market share. As the pressure from tumbling crude prices became undeniable, the coalition announced in November a pause in all output increments for the first quarter of 2026. By then, the damage had been done.

U.S. production hit 13.9 million bpd in November, stemmed from post-pandemic operational efficiencies and a consolidation in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) consolidation, rather than new regulatory tailwinds.

According to recent Dallas Fed surveys, producers noted that while regulatory loosening under the Trump administration marginally lowered average break-even costs by about $1 bbl, the broader price decline is being dictated by international flows and a growing global glut.

U.S. energy dominance has been supported by the explosive growth in crude exports, which are projected to end 2025 at an average of 4.5 million bpd, a 9.8% year-over-year increase and an all-time high, says the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

This surge is fundamentally shifting global trade flows, particularly into Europe, where U.S. cargoes are replacing sanctioned Russian oil barrels.

The U.S. dominance extended to the natural gas sector, where LNG exports rose 25% this year to 14.9 Bcfd, according to EIA data. 

Fueled by new terminals and bolstered by massive demand from AI data centers, domestic gas prices nearly doubled to a projected $4.20 MmBtu, EIA data showed. While the oil market struggles with a surplus, the 2026 gas market outlook shows tight supply conditions.

Consolidation 

The wave of 2024 M&A activity – headlined by ExxonMobil’s $64.5 billion acquisition of Pioneer and Chevron’s $53 billion takeover of Hess – created a super-major class capable of weathering lower prices.

The math for the rest of the shale patch is increasingly difficult, as the Permian Basin requires roughly $61 per barrel for new drilling break-evens, while the Eagle Ford and Bakken plays generally require $70 bbl to justify new activity.

With WTI hovering near $55 bbl, new drilling in these basins is effectively underwater for many mid-sized players, Phil Davis, energy trader at PSW Investments, said. “Producers will keep existing wells pumping because of sunk costs that had already been cleared,” Davis said.

The administration’s impact on the market remains a double-edged sword. While trade tariffs have raised concerns over dampened global demand, efforts to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve provided buyers for domestic crude. Sanctions on Russian, Venezuelan and Iranian oil trade have also created a mass shadow inventory that has added to the global glut.

The current surplus, estimated at 2.3 million bpd by the International Energy Agency, has been forecast to reach 4 million bpd by 2026 – a figure that would surpass pandemic-era oversupply levels.

EIA: PADD 2 Gasoline Stocks Climb to 8-Mo High Last Week

Midwest (PADD 2) gasoline inventories increased last week, while distillate inventories declined and jet fuel stocks also edged higher in the week ended December 26, according to Energy Information Administration data released Tuesday (12/30).

Motor gasoline inventories in the Midwest amounted to 50.6 million bbl last week, rising from the prior week and reaching the highest level reported since the week ended May 2, when stocks stood at 51.5 million bbl, EIA data showed. Stocks remained modestly below the same period a year earlier, reflecting a still tighter year over year balance despite recent builds. The inventory increase coincided with softer seasonal demand across the region, improving near term supply coverage. Retail prices reflected the steadier supply backdrop, with Midwest gasoline prices edging up 0.1ct to average $2.606 gallon in the week ended December 29, standing 26.9cts below the same period last year.

Distillate fuel oil stocks in PADD 2 declined by 200,000 bbl to 25.9 million bbl during the reference week, reversing part of the prior week’s build and leaving inventories below the 27.2 million bbl reported in the same week last year. The tighter stock position persisted as winter demand remained elevated across northern markets. Retail diesel prices eased alongside the inventory draw, with Midwest diesel prices dropping 5.9cts to average $3.424 gallon in the week ended December 29. Even with the weekly decline, Midwest diesel prices stood 4.5cts lower than the same week last year.

Jet fuel inventories in the Midwest increased by 200,000 bbl to 8.1 million bbl, up from  7.9 million bbl the prior week and 7.3 million bbl in the same week last year, adding to supply coverage following earlier seasonal draws.

EIA: U.S. Ethanol Output Increases, Stocks 0.6% Down on Year

The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (12/31) that overall ethanol production in the United States averaged 1.12 million bpd, up 25,000 bpd week-on-week and 13,000 bpd, or 1.2% higher than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.119 million bpd was 26,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.

Midwest ethanol production averaged 1.063 million bpd, up 25,000 bpd week-on-week and 18,000 bpd, or 1.7% higher than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.062 million bpd was 31,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.

Ethanol blending activity in the U.S. averaged 888,000 bpd, down 24,000 bpd week-on-week and 32,000 bpd, or 3.5% lower than in the same week last year. Four-week average blending demand at 875,000 bpd was 12,000 bpd below the same four weeks last year.

Blender inputs at the East Coast were down 14,000 bpd on the week while inputs in the Midwest were down 2,000 bpd, down 1,000 bpd on the Gulf Coast and down 6,000 bpd on the West Coast.

Domestic ethanol inventories ended the week at 22.944 million bbl, up 416,000 bbl week-on-week and 130,000 bbl, or 0.6% lower than in the same week last year.

East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 6.159 million bbl, down 163,000 bbl week-on-week and 612,000 bbl, or 9% lower than in the same week last year.

Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 10.321 million bbl, up 942,000 bbl week-on-week and 1.222 million bbl, or 13.4% higher than in the same week last year.

Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 3.737 million bbl, down 115,000 bbl week-on-week and 563,000 bbl, or 13.1% lower than in the same week last year.

West Coast PADD 5 inventories ended the week at 2.359 million bbl, down 234,000 bbl week-on-week and 165,000 bbl, or 6.5% lower than in the same week last year.

EIA: PADD 1 Gasoline Stocks Hit February High Last Week

East Coast (PADD 1) gasoline inventories increased while distillate and jet fuel stocks both fell during the week ended December 26, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released Wednesday (12/31).

Motor gasoline inventories in the East Coast region amounted to 56.2 million bbl last week, up 3.2 million bbl from the prior week and registering the highest volume reported since February, EIA data showed. Despite the build, inventories remained 2.4 million bbl below the same week last year, underscoring a tighter year-over-year supply position.

Gasoline imports in the region averaged 358,000 bpd in the reference week, down from the prior week’s 565,000 bpd and the year-ago level of 595,000 bpd. Retail prices reflected the improving supply picture, with East Coast gasoline prices slipping 3.9cts to average $2.781 gallon in the week ended December 29, and standing 17.5cts below the same period last year.

Distillate fuel oil stocks in PADD 1 declined by 2.6 million bbl to 31.1 million bbl week over week. Inventories of the same products were down 5.5 million bbl year over year, the EIA reported.

The tighter inventory structure in distillates coincided with firmer seasonal demand, keeping retail diesel prices elevated even as they eased modestly on the week. East Coast diesel prices fell 2.9cts to average $3.645 gallon as of December 29, while remaining 5.8cts above the same period last year as colder temperatures began to lift heating oil demand in the region.

In contrast, jet fuel inventories on the East Coast dropped by 300,000 bbl to 9.3 million on a weekly basis and remained below the year-ago level of 9.5 million.

Colder weather across the East Coast continued to shape refined product balances late in the month, with distillate inventories tightening while gasoline stocks rebuilt amid seasonally lower consumption.

EIA: Crude Stocks Down 1.9M Bbl on Week, Fuels Continue Builds

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories saw a drawdown last week, while gasoline and distillate fuel oil stocks continued their builds, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported Wednesday (12/31).

Commercial crude stocks fell by 1.9 million bbl to 422.9 million bbl during the week ended December 26, following a 400,000 bbl increase the prior week, the EIA said in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

With the weekly draw, U.S. crude inventories stood at 7.3 million bbl, or 1.8%, higher than levels a year earlier, the report showed.

Crude stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures, however, extended their growth, climbing by 500,000 bbl to 22.1 million after the prior week’s addition of 700,000 bbl.

Distillate fuel oil inventories rose by 5 million bbl to 123.7 million, supported by continuous increases across ultra low sulfur and higher sulfur categories. In the previous week, distillates saw a build of 2.2 million.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 5.8 million bbl to 234.3 million during the reference week, adding to the prior week’s surplus of 2.9 million. Blending components rose by 4.3 million bbl to 218.3 million, accounting for most of the increase, while conventional gasoline stocks edged up by 1.5 million to 16 million.

Refinery utilization averaged 94.7% of operable capacity, up marginally from 94.6% in the prior week. Crude oil inputs to refineries averaged 16.8 million bpd, also fractionally higher than the previous week’s 16.78 million.

Crude oil exports averaged 3.44 million bpd, down by about 176,000 bpd from the previous week, while crude imports fell by 1.14 million bpd to 4.95 million bpd.

Total products supplied over the last four weeks averaged 19.34 million bpd, down by 4.5% from the same period a year earlier. Gasoline demand averaged 8.56 million bpd, down by 4.8% from a year earlier, while distillate demand averaged 3.38 million bpd, down by 4.5% from the same period last year.

EIA: Propane/Propylene Stocks Up on Wk, Increase 18% on Yr

The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday total domestic propane/propylene stocks of 100.324 million bbl in the week ending December 26, up 785,000 bbl week-on-week and 15.281 million bbl, or 18% higher than in the same week last year.

Data show propane/propylene exports last week averaged 1.692 million bpd, down 418,000 bpd week-on-week and 19,000 bpd, or 1.1%, lower than in the same week last year.

Implied demand for propane/propylene in the United States averaged 1.224 million bpd, up 314,000 bpd week-on-week and 510,000 bpd, or 29.4% lower than in the same week last year.

EIA reports domestic propane/propylene production averaged 2.853 million bpd, up 65,000 bpd week-on-week and 176,000 bpd, or 6.6% higher than in the same week last year.

East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 7.733 million bbl, down 277,000 bbl week-on-week and 237,000 bbl, or 3.2% higher than in the same week last year.

Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 23.639 million bbl, down 855,000 bbl week-on-week and 1.506 million bbl, or 6.8% higher than in the same week last year.

Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 63.975 million bbl, up 2.012 million bbl week-on-week and 13.293 million bbl, or 26.2% higher than in the same week last year.

Combined inventories in the Rockies and the West Coast, PADD 4 and 5, ended the week at 4.976 million bbl, down 94,000 bbl week-on-week and 245,000 bbl, or 5.2% higher than in the same week last year.