MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for December 3rd

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— Trump OKs Domestic Production of Ultra-Compact Cars

— AAR: Petroleum Carloads Down 4.9% for Week to Nov. 29

— Fitch Cuts 2025-2027 Oil Price Forecasts, Cites Oversupply

— EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stockpiles Rise by 400K Bbl on Week

— EIA: PADD 2 Distillate Stocks Rise 1.5M Bbl on Week

— EIA: Fuel Stocks Swell as Refiners Ramp Up Production

— EIA: USGC Gasoline Stocks See 4.2M Bbl Weekly Build

— EIA: Fuel Stocks Swell as Refiners Ramp Up Production

— EIA: U.S. Ethanol Output Up, Stocks Down 2.1% on Year

— EIA: U.S. Crude Stocks Rise 600K Bbl on Week, Fuels Up

— Global Diesel Margins Climb to 2025 Highs as Supply Tightens

— ExxonMobil: Fossil Fuel Demand Steady Through 2050

NEWS:

Trump OKs Domestic Production of Ultra-Compact Cars

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday (12/3) authorized domestic production of low-cost ultra-compact cars as part of a change in fuel economy rules.

The announcement came as the White House rescinded fuel efficiency standards set by the Biden administration yesterday, a decision that the Trump administration says will lower technology costs for automakers, potentially translating into cheaper prices for consumers.

“I believe our auto industry will be bigger than before,” Trump said. He also predicted a “tremendous market” in the U.S. for ultra-compact cars, similar to the types he had seen in Asia.

While there isn’t any outright restriction on the manufacture of ultra-compact cars in the U.S., stringent crash tests and other safety requirements make it difficult and expensive for automakers to certify such tiny vehicles. Trump did not announce on Wednesday any particular waiver and incentive for ultra-compact cars.

The Biden-era fuel efficiency standards rescinded by the current administration involves a mandate for automakers to achieve about 50 miles per gallon on new vehicles from 2031 onwards. Under revised rules issued Wednesday, automakers only have to achieve an average of 34.5 miles per gallon for cars and light trucks in model year 2031.

On the first day of his second presidential term, Trump ordered the elimination of subsidies and all other federal measures supporting electric vehicles (EVs). The Republican-Congress followed by eliminating civil penalties for noncompliance with the earlier rules.

In a coordinated effort, the administration and Congress have also eliminated federal tax credits for EV purchasers and moved to rescind California’s ability to set its own strict emissions limits.

AAR: Petroleum Carloads Down 4.9% for Week to Nov. 29

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) data show petroleum and petroleum product carloads totaled 9,576 in the week ending November 29, down by 4.9% from the same week a year ago.

Year to date, petroleum and petroleum products carloads totaled 496,061, down by 1.7% from the corresponding period of the prior year, an AAR report published on Wednesday (12/3) showed.

Total U.S. weekly rail traffic at 431,435 carloads and intermodal units in the week profiled was down by 1.8% when compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending November 29 reached 197,955, up by 4.3% compared to the same week last year, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 233,480 containers and trailers, a decrease of 6.5% from the previous year.

For the first 48 weeks of 2025, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 10,660,309 carloads, higher by 1.8% compared to the same period of last year, and 12,997,055 intermodal units, up by 1.9% from the prior year.

Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 48 weeks of 2025 was 23,657,364 carloads and intermodal units, up by 1.9% compared to last year.

Fitch Cuts 2025-2027 Oil Price Forecasts,Cites Oversupply

Fitch Ratings announced Wednesday (12/3) it has cut its 2025-2027 forecast for oil prices while raising its expectation for natural gas prices this year, citing supply dynamics for both.

A revised table on oil and gas price assumptions published by the ratings agency showed that its prior forecast of $70 bbl for Brent in 2025 has been reduced to $69 bbl. The 2026-2027 expectation of $65 bbl for Brent was cut to $63 bbl.

For WTI, the original Fitch forecast of $65 bbl for 2025 has been trimmed to $64 bbl. The 2026-2027 expectation of $60 bbl has eased to $58 bbl.

The cut in its crude price forecasts reflects market oversupply, Fitch said.

In the case of U.S. natural gas, Fitch’s 2025 outlook of $3.40 per million cubic feet (Mcf) has been raised to $3.50 Mcf.

The higher gas price assumption reflects tighter European gas balances as supply growth of U.S. liquefied natural gas is constrained by project-timing slippage, Fitch added.

EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stockpiles Rise by 400K Bbl on Week

U.S. West Coast (PADD 5) refined product inventories were mostly higher during the week ending November 28, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (12/03).

Gasoline stocks in PADD 5 climbed by 400,000 bbl to 27.7 million bbl in the reference week, which is 1.4 million bbl lower than the 26.3 million bbl inventory reported in the same week of last year. Gasoline imports in the region declined by 27,000 bpd to 243,000 bpd, above the 31,000 bpd recorded the previous year.

PADD 5 distillate inventories rose by 300,000 bbl to 11.5 million bbl in the reference week, below 11.8 million bbl reported in the same week of last year. Distillate imports fell by 18,000 bpd to 5,000 bpd week-over-week, 9,000 bpd lower year-over-year.

Crude oil stocks in PADD 5 fell by 600,000 bbl to 46.5 million bbl in the week ending November 28, below the 47.7 million bbl in the same period the previous year. Crude oil imports in the same region fell by 175,000 bpd to 1.049 million bpd during the week ending November 28. On a yearly basis, imports dropped 788,000 bpd, EIA data showed.

Jet fuel inventories in PADD 5 were unchanged at 11.2 million bbl in the profiled week, above the 10.4 million bbl reported last year. Jet fuel imports climbed by 18,000 bpd to 129 bpd, compared with 45,000 bpd last year.

EIA: PADD 2 Distillate Stocks Rise 1.5M Bbl on Week

Midwest inventories for distillate fuel, gasoline, jet fuel and crude oil all increased in the week ending November 28, U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (12/03) showed.

Regional distillate fuel oil inventories increased by 1.5 million bbl to 24.9 million bbl, while remaining under the 27.4 million bbl reported in the same week of last year. The region held 24 million bbl of ultra-low sulfur diesel, compared with 26.8 million bbl last year.

PADD 2 gasoline stocks rose by 300,000 bbl to 44.9 million bbl in the profiled week, compared with 45.3 million bbl in the same week last year. Motor gasoline blending component stocks also posted a small build, up 100,000 bbl to 41.1 million bbl, versus the 41.5 million bbl inventory for the same week of last year.

Jet fuel stockpiles in the Midwest recorded a slight build, rising 100,000 bbl to 7.7 million bbl, identical to the inventory level from a year ago.

Crude oil stockpiles in PADD 2 edged up 100,000 bbl to 101 million bbl, compared with 107.7 million bbl in the same week last year.

EIA: USGC Gasoline Stocks See 4.2M Bbl Weekly Build

U.S. Gulf Coast refined product inventories were mixed during the week ending November 28, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (12/03).

Gasoline stocks in PADD 3 climbed by 4.2 million bbl to 85.5 million bbl last week, compared with the 81.8 million bbl inventory in the same week last year. Gasoline imports in the region rose to 3,000 bpd from zero imports in the same week of last year.

PADD 3 crude oil stocks slipped by 500,000 bbl to 246.5 million bbl in the reference week, which is 10.9 million higher than the 235.6 million bbl level in the previous year. Crude oil imports in the same region dropped by 404,000 bpd to 881,000 bpd week-over-week. This was 675,000 bpd lower than the volume imported in the same week of the prior year.

U.S. Gulf Coast distillate inventories fell by 800,000 bbl to 45.4 million bbl in the week ending November 28, above the 40.3 million bbl stockpile reported in the same period of the previous year.

Jet fuel inventories in PADD 3 declined by 200,000 bbl to 14.4 million bbl in the reference week, above the 12.8 million bbl level reported last year.

No imports of distillate and jet fuel were recorded in the region.

EIA: Fuel Stocks Swell as Refiners Ramp Up Production

U.S. inventories of gasoline and middle distillates continued to expand in the last week of November, according to Energy Information Administration data published Wednesday (12/3). The product builds were typical for the season as refiners ramp up operations in the last quarter of the year.

Crude oil net inputs clocked in at 16.88 million bpd in the week ending November 28, in line with year-ago levels, and slightly above the three-year average pace. On the four-week average and the cumulative daily average, they were within 0.6% of levels this time last year – despite a 166,000-bpd year-on-year decline in operable capacity.

The highest refining margins in years, coupled with a global refining rut and tight middle distillate inventories, have incentivized refiners to maximize operations. While crack spreads have eased with the end of a diesel rally that peaked in mid-November, they remain at their highest since early 2023. Further supporting margins is the drop in crude oil prices, which has more than made up for increases in other operational costs.

Despite a 4.5 million bbl build in gasoline inventories and a 2.1 million bbl build in distillate fuel oil stocks, U.S. transportation fuel stockpiles remained near the lower end of historical norms. Total gasoline inventories were in line with year-ago levels, while diesel and heating oil stocks continued to trail 2024 levels, down 3.2% year-on-year.

The margin-induced refining push has led to some delayed maintenance in the fall season, which typically implies a steeper pullback than usual, starting less than a month from now. For now, high product prices and healthy margins continue to incentivize maximal utilization.

Inventories should not expect much respite, however. Domestic demand is close to year-ago levels, and stronger international demand has been pulling more barrels onto the export market, all while the steep backwardation in diesel futures is disincentivizing excess barrel storage.

EIA: U.S. Ethanol Output Up, Stocks Down 2.1% on Year

The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday (12/3) that overall ethanol production in the United States averaged 1.126 million bpd, up 13,000 bpd week-on-week and 53,000 bpd, or 4.7% higher than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.102 million bpd was 2,000 bpd below the same four weeks last year.

Midwest ethanol production averaged 1.068 million bpd, up 13,000 bpd week-on-week and 54,000 bpd, or 5.1% higher than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.042 million bpd was 4,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.

Ethanol blending activity in the U.S. averaged 857,000 bpd, down 28,000 bpd week-on-week and 16,000 bpd, or 1.9% lower than in the same week last year. Four-week average blending demand at 881,000 bpd was 10,000 bpd below the same four weeks last year.

Blender inputs at the East Coast were down 22,000 bpd on the week while inputs in the Midwest were down 9,000 bpd, up 4,000 bpd on the Gulf Coast and up 1,000 bpd on the West Coast.

Domestic ethanol inventories ended the week at 22.511 million bbl, up 543,000 bbl week-on-week and 492,000 bbl, or 2.1% lower than in the same week last year.

East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 6.554 million bbl, up 85,000 bbl week-on-week and 414,000 bbl, or 6.3% lower than in the same week last year.

Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 9.015 million bbl, up 687,000 bbl week-on-week and 347,000 bbl, or 3.8% lower than in the same week last year.

Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 4.062 million bbl, down 116,000 bbl week-on-week and 4,000 bbl, or 0.1% higher than in the same week last year.

West Coast PADD 5 inventories ended the week at 2.495 million bbl, down 121,000 bbl week-on-week and 314,000 bbl, or 12.6% higher than in the same week last year.

EIA: U.S. Crude Stocks Rise 600K Bbl on Week, Fuels Up

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose during the week ended November 28, along with a surge in gasoline and distillate fuel oil stocks, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday (12/3).

Commercial crude stocks rose by 600,000 bbl to 427.5 million bbl, following the prior week’s climb of 2.8 million bbl, the EIA said in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

The latest weekly update on U.S. crude inventories put stockpiles at 4.1 million bbl, or 1%, above year-ago levels.

Despite the broader crude inventory build, stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures, fell 500,000 bbl from the prior week to stand at 21.3 million bbl during the week ended November 28.

Distillate oil inventories rose by 2.1 million bbl to 114.3 million bbl, after the prior weekly growth of 1.1 million bbl. Year-on-year, however, distillate stocks were down 3.8 million bbl, with most of the draw occurring in low-sulfur grades.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 4.5 million bbl to 209.9 million bbl during the profiled week, adding to the prior week’s rise of 2.5 million bbl. Blending components rose by 2.7 million bbl to 199.5 million bbl, accounting for most of the increase, while conventional gasoline gained1.8 million bbl to 14.9 million bbl.

Refinery utilization stood at 94.1% of capacity, up by 1.8% from the prior week. Crude runs averaged 16.9 million bpd, up 500,000 bpd week-on-week.

Crude exports averaged 3.598 million bpd, down by 560,000 bpd from the previous week, while crude imports rose by 1.046 million bpd to 2.838 million bpd.

Total products supplied over the last four weeks averaged 20.19 million bpd, up 221,000 bpd from the same period a year earlier. Gasoline demand averaged 8.34 million bpd last week, down 4.7% year-on-year, while distillate demand averaged 3.43 million bpd, up 0.9% year-on-year.

Global Diesel Margins Climb to 2025 Highs as Supply Tightens

Global diesel refinery margins have reached their highest level this year, widening steadily since late October as outages in Russia and the Middle East and new European Union (EU) sanctions tightened supply, according to a U.S. Energy Information Administration report released Wednesday (12/3).

The impact has been most pronounced in the Atlantic Basin, where tighter balances lifted prices at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub, New York Harbor and the U.S. Gulf Coast, the EIA stated.

Crack spreads reflected those shifts. Diesel spreads in New York Harbor, the Gulf Coast and ARA all climbed above $1 gallon for the first time in more than a year between mid-October and mid-November, signaling stronger refining profitability amid constrained global inventories, according to the EIA.

In October restricted activity by Rosneft, Lukoil and Gazprom Neft and targeted refineries in Turkey and India that had been processing discounted Russian crude. Those measures followed earlier EU bans on Russian crude and refined products imposed after the invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries reduced exportable diesel, forcing buyers to compete more aggressively for non-Russian barrels, EIA said.

Additional outages deepened the shortage. Kuwait’s Al Zour refinery has been offline since late October, and maintenance across the Middle East combined with uncertainty surrounding Nigeria’s Dangote refinery added further strain to Atlantic Basin supply, according to the agency.

EIA said constrained global supply and firm demand have boosted the call on U.S. Gulf Coast refiners, where gasoline and distillate exports have climbed above typical levels. With several international refineries still running at reduced rates, the EIA said diesel margins are likely to stay elevated in the near term.

ExxonMobil: Fossil Fuel Demand Steady Through 2050

ExxonMobil expects world reliance on fossil fuels to remain steady through 2050, even with a multi-fold surge in the power generation capacity of key renewable sources solar and wind.

In its 2025 Global Outlook, the world’s largest energy company projects that global oil consumption will stabilize after 2030, remaining above 100 million bpd and reaching approximately 105 million bpd by 2050.

ExxonMobil projects demand could still reach 65 million bpd in restrictive scenarios that include low-carbon climate pathways.

Such stable demand will face severe challenges from naturally declining production, especially from fast-depleting sources like U.S. shale.

ExxonMobil emphasizes that stopping all new investments in oil would cause production to fall rapidly, projecting a severe 70 million bpd shortfall by 2030 that would spark massive economic disruption. A scenario limiting investment only to existing fields would slow the decline rate; yet, it would still fall well short of the oil volumes required even in climate goal models.

Natural gas faces similar supply constraints, necessitating significant and sustained investment to maintain current production and develop new resources globally. Without new capital deployed, global natural gas supply is anticipated to drop by 11% annually, creating a shortfall equal to half of the world’s projected demand by 2030.

Exxon Mobil expects that liquefied natural gas (LNG)  to nearly double in volume and meet over 20% of the world’s gas demand by 2050. New LNG supplies are forecasted to emerge predominantly from North America, the Middle East, and Africa, driven primarily by sustained economic growth across Asia Pacific nations.

Regarding global electricity demand, the oil company predicts it will surge by 70% by 2050, primarily due to rising living standards in developing economies worldwide. Renewable energy, specifically solar and wind, is slated for substantial growth, increasing its share of global electricity generation from less than 15% today to over 40% by 2050.

Solar generation is projected to rise from 8.4 quadrillion British Thermal Units  (BTUs) in 2024 to 40.7 quadrillion BTUs in 2050, accompanying data released by ExxonMobil showed.

Wind generation is projected to increase from 8.8 quadrillion BTUs in 2024 to 36.4 quadrillion BTUs in 2050.

The growth in renewables is expected to displace coal, with lower-emission natural gas also gaining share to meet the 70% increase in global electricity demand.