MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for November 19th

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— AAR: Petroleum Carloads Down 11.3% for Week to Nov. 15

— Fed: Most Policymakers Oppose December Rate Cut

— U.S. August Trade Deficit Down 24% Driven by Tariffs

— EIA: PADD 2 Crude Falls 1.8M Bbl; Distillate Down 400Kb

— EIA: Alaska 2026 Crude Output to Grow 13% on Year

— EIA: PADD 3 Sees 79M Bbl Weekly Build in Gasoline Stocks

—  EIA: PADD 1 Gasoline Up 200K Bbl, Distillates DN 600K

— EIA: U.S. Crude Stocks DN 3.4M Bbl on Week, Fuels Up

— EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stocks Fall to 27M Bbl on Week

— EIA: Propane/Propylene Stockpiles Jump 8.2% Year-over-Year

— U.S. Ethanol Output Drops , Stocks Fall 2.5% on Year

NEWS:

AAR: Petroleum Carloads Down 11.3% for Week to Nov. 15

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) data show petroleum and petroleum product carloads totaled 10,309 in the week ending November 15, down by 11.3% from the same week a year ago.

Year to date, petroleum and petroleum products carloads totaled 475,898, down by 1.4% from the corresponding period of the prior year, an AAR report published on Wednesday (11/19) showed.

Total U.S. weekly rail traffic at 493,880 carloads and intermodal units in the week profiled, down 4.5% when compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week-ended November 15 reached 223,101, down 0.2% compared to the same week last year, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 270,779 containers and trailers, a 7.7% decrease from the previous year.

For the first 46 weeks of 2025, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 10,227,762 carloads, higher by 1.8% compared to the same period of last year, and 12,482,057 intermodal units, up 2.2% from the prior year.

Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 46 weeks of 2025 was 22,709,819 carloads and intermodal units, reflecting a 2% increase compared to last year.

Fed: Most Policymakers Oppose December Rate Cut

Most policymakers on the Federal Reserve oppose an interest rate cut in December and favor keeping monetary policy unchanged through the year-end, according to minutes of the central bank’s latest policy meeting published on Wednesday (11/19).

“Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year,” the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the rates-setting panel of the central bank, said in the minutes of its October 29 meeting. 

FOMC members also unanimously agreed that monetary policy was “not on a preset course”, the Fed said. A decision on rates would be supported by “a wide range of incoming data, the evolving economic outlook and the balance of risks”, according to the minutes.

U.S. August Trade Deficit Down 24% Driven by Tariffs

The U.S. trade deficit fell 24% in August amid full implementation of import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, Commerce Department data showed Wednesday (11/19).

The U.S. goods and services deficit stood at $59.6 billion in August, down $18.6 billion from a revised $78.2 billion in July, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, a unit within the Commerce Department, said in a news release.

August marked the first month of full implementation of tariffs announced by Trump in April. The four-month delay came as impacted countries attempted to negotiate large and unprecedented tariffs imposed upon them.

In August, U.S. imports fell 5.1% month-on-month to $340.4 billion, while exports rose 0.1% to $280.8 billion, the BEA release showed.

The Trump administration has imposed a baseline duty of 10% on goods from most countries, with certain nations, such as China and India, facing 50% or more tariffs.

The U.S. Supreme Court is determining the legality of the administration’s tariff structure after a lawsuit challenging the president’s authority to impose the duties under emergency powers.

EIA: PADD 2 Crude Falls 1.8M Bbl; Distillate Down 400Kb

Midwest PADD 2 gasoline inventories increased during the week ending February 14, while distillate and jet fuel stocks declined, U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (11/19) showed.

PADD 2 gasoline stocks rose by 700,000 bbl to 44.3 million bbl in the profiled week, down by 200,000 bbl from 44.5 million bbl in the same week last year.

PADD 2 distillate inventories slipped by 400,000 bbl to 23.2 million bbl, remaining down by 2.1 million bbl from 25.3 million bbl in the same week last year.

Midwest jet fuel inventories decreased by 400,000 bbl to 6.9 million bbl, and were down by 200,000 bbl from 7.1 million bbl in the same week last year.

Crude oil inventories in PADD 2 fell by 1.8 million bbl to 102.1 million bbl in the week ending November 14 and were 5.8 million bbl lower than the 107.9 million bbl reported during the same week last year.

Intense expectations have built across financial markets for a third straight rate cut this year at the FOMC’s December 10 meeting. The panel had voted for back-to-back ​ point reductions at its September and October meetings.

The Fed acknowledged those expectations in the minutes published Wednesday, saying investors had been leaning on “another 25 basis point lowering at the December meeting.” At the same time, the central bank said “some uncertainty” had since arisen to push back on that, including mixed patterns in U.S. employment and inflation.

Economists say the near-term U.S. outlook had been complicated by a record 43-day long federal government shutdown that led to a blackout of key macroeconomic and other data between October and early November.

The last time the U.S. Labor Department published the monthly non-farm payroll report was in September, when it reported an addition of 22,000 jobs for August – one of the weakest in years. The department has not said when the October report will be published.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September on October 24, reporting a 3% annual inflation growth that was above the Fed’s preferred target of 2%. The next CPI report is due on December 10 – the same day as the next FOMC meeting.

EIA: Alaska 2026 Crude Output to Grow 13% on Year

Alaska’s crude output is forecast to grow by 13% year-on-year in 2026 to 477,000 bpd, reaching its highest annual expansion in four decades as two major oil production projects come onstream, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday (11/19).

The Santos and Repsol Pikka Phase 1 project will start in the first quarter of next year and reach a peak output of 80,000 bpd by mid-year, nearly equal to 20% of Alaska’s 2024 production, the EIA said.

ConocoPhillips’ Nuna project, which started production in December last year, is expected to peak at 20,000 bpd. In August this year, Nuna produced 7,000 bpd, offsetting existing production declines.

The wells from these new projects are expected to outperform most Alaskan wells, the agency noted. It pointed to recent production records from the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission that put combined production of these wells at around 480 boed on average, whereas 78% of Alaskan wells produced less than 400 boed in 2023.

“After decades of decline, we expect a 13% (55,000 bpd) increase in Alaska oil production, the largest annual increase since the 1980s,” the EIA added.

EIA: PADD 3 Sees 79M Bbl Weekly Build in Gasoline Stocks

U.S. Gulf Coast PADD 3 refined product inventories were mixed during the week ending November 14, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (11/19).

Gasoline stocks in PADD 3 climbed by 1.5 million bbl to 79.1 million bbl last week but was lower than 79.2 million bbl reported in the same period of last year. Gasoline imports in the region fell by 31 bpd to 9 bpd, below 17 bpd year-over-year.

U.S. Gulf Coast distillate inventories rose by 1.6 million bbl to 46.5 million bbl in the profiled week,  above 40.8 million bbl in the same week of the previous year. 

Crude oil stocks in PADD 3 dropped by 2 million bbl to 241.3 million bbl on the week ended November 14,  below 242.1 million bbl reported in the same period of last year.

Crude imports increased by 178 bpd to 1,006 bpd, which is  2,002 bpd lower than the volume reported in the same week of 2024.

Jet fuel inventories in PADD 3 dropped by 700,000 bbl to 13.8 million bbl, down from 14.3 million bbl.

The PADD 3 region does not import distillates or jet fuel.

Crude oil stocks in PADD 5 climbed by 200,000 bbl to 47.7 million bbl, compared with the year-ago level of 48.4 million bbl.

EIA: PADD 1 Gasoline Up 200K Bbl, Distillates DN 600K

East Coast PADD 1 gasoline inventories increased during the week ending November 14, as stocks of jet fuel and crude oil rose too amid a drop in distillates, U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (11/19) showed.

PADD 1 gasoline stocks rose by 200,000 bbl to 49.6 million bbl in the profiled week and were 2.2 million bbl lower than the level recorded in the same week last year. Motor gasoline blending component stocks stood at 47 million bbl, down 2.1 million bbl from the same week last year.

PADD 1 distillate inventories fell by 600,000 bbl to 26.5 million bbl, well below the 33.3 million bbl reported in the same week last year. The region held 25.2 million bbl of ultra-low sulfur diesel, compared with 31.9 million bbl last year.

East Coast jet fuel inventories increased by 900,000 bbl to 10.1 million bbl, though inventories remained 200,000 bbl below the level reported in the same week last year. This comes as the region continues to experience steady flight activity despite seasonal fluctuations.

Crude oil inventories in PADD 1 stood at 8.4 million bbl, compared with 8.1 million bbl in the same week last year.

EIA: U.S. Crude Stocks DN 3.4M Bbl on Week, Fuels Up

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell during the week ended November 14, while gasoline and distillate fuel oil stocks rose, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday (11/19).

Commercial crude stocks declined by 3.4 million bbl to 424.2 million bbl, following the prior week’s build of 6.4 million bbl, the EIA said in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

The EIA’s latest weekly report on U.S. crude inventories put stockpiles at 6.1 million bbl, or 1.4%, below levels from a year earlier.

Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures, retreated by 700,000 bbl to 21.8 million bbl in the reference period, after the prior weekly drop of 400,000 bbl.

Distillate oil inventories rose by 200,000 bbl to 111.1 million bbl in the week ending November 14, after a 600,000 bbl decline in the prior week. Distillate stocks are now 3.2 million bbl below the same period last year, with most of the draw occurring in low-sulfur grades.

Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.3 million bbl to 207.4 million bbl in the profiled week, following a 900,000-bbl drop the prior week. Blending components rose by 2.8 million bbl to 193 million bbl, accounting for most of the increase, while conventional gasoline edged lower by 400,000 bbl to 14.4 million bbl.

Refinery utilization stood at 90% of capacity, up by 0.6% from the prior week. Crude runs averaged 16.2 million bpd, up by 258,000 bpd week-on-week.

Crude exports averaged 4.158 million bpd, up by 1.342 million bpd from the previous week, while crude imports rose by 729,000 bpd to 5.95 million bpd.

Total products supplied over the last four weeks averaged 20.16 million bpd, up by 386,000 bpd from the same period a year earlier. Gasoline demand averaged 8.528 million bpd last week, up by 1.3% year-on-year, while distillate demand averaged 3.88 million bpd, higher by 2.8% year-on-year.

EIA: PADD 5 Gasoline Stocks Fall to 27M Bbl on Week

West Coast PADD 5 refined product inventories shifted during the week ending November 14, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday (11/19).

Gasoline stocks in PADD 5 fell by 300,000 bbl during the week to 27 million bbl, and compared with 26.4 million bbl a year ago. Gasoline imports in the region climbed by 145,000 bpd to 253,000 bpd, above 25 bpd in 2024.

Distillate inventories in PADD 5 fell by 500,000 bbl to 11.2 million bbl, compared with 11.1 million bbl a year ago. Distillate imports climbed by 3,000 bpd to 12,000 bpd, but remained below last year’s level of 16,000 bpd.

Jet fuel inventories in the region climbed by 300,000 bbl to 11.4 million bbl, compared with 10.3 million bbl a year ago. Jet fuel imports fell by 23,000 bpd to 92,000 bpd, compared with last year’s level of 108,000 bpd.

Crude oil stocks in PADD 5 climbed by 200,000 bbl to 47.7 million bbl, compared with the year-ago level of 48.4 million bbl.

EIA: Propane/Propylene Stockpiles Jump 8.2% Year-over-Year

The Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday (11/19) that the total domestic propane/propylene stocks of 105.361 million bbl in the week ending November 14, down 42,000 bbl week-on-week and 8.667 million bbl, or 8.2% higher than in the same week last year.

Data show propane/propylene exports last week averaged 1.894 million bpd, down 35,000 bpd week-on-week and 525,000 bpd, or 27.7%, higher than in the same week last year.

Implied demand for propane/propylene in the United States averaged 1.122 million bpd, down 36,000 bpd week-on-week and 563,000 bpd, or 50.2% lower than in the same week last year.

EIA reports domestic propane/propylene production averaged 2.86 million bpd, down 13,000 bpd week-on-week and 103,000 bpd, or 3.6% higher than in the same week last year.

East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 9.724 million bbl, up 1.093 million bbl week-on-week and 1.657 million bbl, or 17% higher than in the same week last year.

Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 28.021 million bbl, up 11,000 bbl week-on-week and 523,000 bbl, or 1.9% higher than in the same week last year.

Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 62.335 million bbl, down 932,000 bbl week-on-week and 6.7 million bbl, or 10.7% higher than in the same week last year.

Combined inventories in the Rockies and the West Coast, PADD 4 and 5, ended the week at 5.281 million bbl, down 214,000 bbl week-on-week and 213,000 bbl, or 4% lower than in the same week last year.

U.S. Ethanol Output Drops , Stocks Fall 2.5% on Year

The Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday (11/19) that overall ethanol production in the United States averaged 1.091 million bpd, up 16,000 bpd week-on-week and 28,000 bpd, or 2.6% lower than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.097 million bpd was 15,000 bpd below the same four weeks last year.

Midwest ethanol production averaged 1.033 million bpd, up 19,000 bpd week-on-week and 15,000 bpd, or 1.5% lower than in the same week last year. Four-week average output at 1.038 million bpd was 7,000 bpd below the same four weeks last year.

Ethanol blending activity in the U.S. averaged 888,000 bpd, down 7,000 bpd week-on-week and 2,000 bpd, or 0.2% lower than in the same week last year. Four-week average blendind demand at 913,000 bpd was 11,000 bpd above the same four weeks last year.

Blender inputs at the East Coast were down 10,000 bpd on the week while inputs in the Midwest were down 1,000 bpd, up 1,000 bpd on the Gulf Coast and up 3,000 bpd on the West Coast.

Domestic ethanol inventories ended the week at 22.307 million bbl, up 88,000 bbl week-on-week and 562,000 bbl, or 2.5% lower than in the same week last year.

East Coast PADD 1 inventories ended the week at 6.831 million bbl, up 189,000 bbl week-on-week and 309,000 bbl, or 4.5% lower than in the same week last year.

Midwest PADD 2 inventories ended the week at 8.841 million bbl, down 134,000 bbl week-on-week and 96,000 bbl, or 1.1% lower than in the same week last year.

Gulf Coast PADD 3 inventories ended the week at 3.799 million bbl, down 83,000 bbl week-on-week and 375,000 bbl, or 9.9% lower than in the same week last year.

West Coast PADD 5 inventories ended the week at 2.469 million bbl, up 108,000 bbl week-on-week and 241,000 bbl, or 9.8% higher than in the same week last year.