MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for November 18th

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— API: U.S. Crude, Gasoline, Distillate Stocks Rise Last Wk

— PNW Sub-Octane Regular Basis Drops 10cts on Lower Offers

— EIA: U.S. Retail Gasoline Average Climbs 0.6cts on Week

— EIA: U.S. Diesel Price Rises 3.1cts on Week

— Analysis: U.S. Oil Production May Exceed Expectations

NEWS:

API: U.S. Crude, Gasoline, Distillate Stocks Rise Last Wk

SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) – U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories rose during the week ended November 14, marking a build for the third straight week, the American Petroleum Institute reported on Wednesday (11/18).

U.S. commercial crude oil supply increased by 4.4 million bbl in the profiled week, adding to back-to-back prior weekly builds of 1.3 million and 6.5 million bbl.

The crude build for last week was despite inventories easing by 800,000 bbl at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures. The Cushing hub saw a 43,000 bbl decline the previous week.

Gasoline inventories rose by 1.5 million bbl, following a 270,000 bbl draw the prior week.

Distillate fuel stocks rose by 600,000 bbl, after the previous weekly rise of 944,000 bbl.

API: U.S. Crude Stocks Build 4.4M Bbl on Week

U.S. crude oil inventories rose for a third straight week, along with a build in gasoline and distillate fuel supplies, the American Petroleum Institute reported on Wednesday (11/18).

U.S. commercial crude oil supply increased by 4.4 million bbl during the week ended November 14, adding to back-to-back prior weekly builds of 1.3 million and 6.5 million bbl.

The crude build for last week was despite inventories easing by 800,000 bbl at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point for NYMEX West Texas Intermediate futures. The Cushing hub saw a 43,000 bbl decline the previous week.

Gasoline inventories rose by 1.5 million bbl, following a 270,000 bbl draw the prior week.

Distillate fuel stocks rose by 600,000 bbl, after the previous weekly rise of 944,000 bbl.

PNW Sub-Octane Regular Basis Drops 10cts on Lower Offers

Pacific Northwest sub-octane regular basis dipped by 10 cents to a 34.5cts premium against the December NYMEX RBOB futures contract on Tuesday (11/18), after lower offers were heard in early trading.

Market sources said an offer for PNW sub-octane regular was heard at a 35cts premium, shifting the basis down from the 44.5cts premium seen on Monday (11/17) to below the offer at 34.5cts.

Confirmation of a trade at that level was not verified at the time of publication.

The market also continues to watch last week’s Olympic Pipeline shutdown after BP Pipelines North America halted portions of the system on November 11 when a sheen was discovered near a right of way east of Everett, Washington.

The precautionary halt briefly limited regional product flows across the 400-mile network, which typically moves about 325,000 bpd of refined products.

“Olympic continues to investigate a release of refined products east of Everett, Washington,” BP said in a statement to DTN, adding that it restored service on the unimpacted segment on Sunday, November 16, “enabling product delivery”.

EIA: U.S. Retail Gasoline Average Climbs 0.6cts on Week

The national average for retail regular gasoline edged higher in the week ended November 17, marking a second straight weekly increase as prices moved mixed across major regions, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed Tuesday (11/18).

The U.S. average for regular gasoline climbed by 0.6cts to $3.062 gallon, standing 1.6cts higher compared to the same week last year, the EIA’s weekly update on fuel pricing showed.

East Coast (PADD 1) gasoline rose by 4.1cts to $2.953 gallon, while staying 5cts lower than last year.

Within the East Coast, New England (PADD 1A) increased by 0.8cts to $2.98 gallon, remaining 0.3cts below the same week last year.

Central Atlantic (PADD 1B) advanced 3.6cts to $3.131 gallon, while staying 1.6cts higher than year-ago levels.

Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) climbed by 5.2cts to $2.834 gallon, standing 10.3cts lower than the corresponding week of last year.

Midwest (PADD 2) prices slipped 0.3cts to $2.907 gallon, remaining 2.5cts higher than last year.

Gulf Coast (PADD 3) increased 0.1cts to $2.6 gallon, staying 2.9cts lower than a year earlier.

Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) gasoline rose 4cts to $2.949 gallon, standing 3.2cts higher than year-ago levels.

West Coast (PADD 5) gasoline fell 3.9cts to $4.12 gallon, though prices stood 24.5cts above the corresponding week of last year.

West Coast less California declined 3.7cts to $3.746 gallon, while remaining 22cts higher year-on-year.

EIA: U.S. Diesel Price Rises 3.1cts on Week

DAVENPORT, FL (DTN) – The national average price for retail diesel fuel climbed by 3.1cts as of Monday (11/17), extending last week’s rise, with increases seen across all U.S. regions, according to latest fuel pricing data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The national average for retail diesel fuel was at $3.868 gallon, standing 37.7cts above levels from a year ago, the EIA’s weekly update on fuel pricing showed on Tuesday (11/19).

Gulf Coast (PADD 3) posted the largest weekly increase, up by 5.4cts to $3.49 gallon, or 33.7cts above last year’s level.

East Coast (PADD 1) average diesel prices increased by 3.3cts to $3.856 gallon as of November 17, while remaining 30.4cts higher than a year earlier. On the East Coast as well, Central Atlantic (PADD 1B) rose by 4.3cts to $3.999 gallon, Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) advanced by 2.6cts to $3.787 gallon, and New England (PADD 1A) edged higher by 6.6cts to $4.021 gallon.

Midwest (PADD 2) prices were up by 2.2cts to $3.913 gallon, remaining 44.7cts above the same week last year.

West Coast (PADD 5) average diesel prices rose by 1.4cts to $4.559 gallon, marking a 41cts year-on-year rise.

West Coast less California gained by 1.9cts to $4.18 gallon, while California edged higher by 0.8cts to $4.996 gallon, both standing well above levels from a year earlier.

Analysis: U.S. Oil Production May Exceed Expectations

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook published on November 12 contained a sharp upward revision to U.S. production estimates. Despite softening crude oil prices, often written-off U.S. production growth now looks to have outpaced year-ago levels in 2025.

Efficiency gains in existing wells have more than made up for the falling number of active rigs, leading to a record-high crude oil production of 13.76 million bpd in the third quarter, according to the EIA. The agency estimates domestic crude oil production to average 13.59 million bpd this year, implying a 2.7% annual growth rate, compared to 2.2% from 2023 to 2024.

This latest adjustment, which was far from the first upward revision to U.S. oil production estimates this year, did however not impact EIA’s view on production peaking in the fourth quarter before gradually easing next year. This forecast is likely in part based on softening crude oil prices amid a growing global oil surplus.

While prices may have slipped to a level disincentivizing the drilling of some new wells, they are forecasted to remain far above break-even prices for existing production, and, given steadfast efficiency gains, may still provide U.S. crude oil production more room to grow than expected.

Earlier this year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, for their quarterly energy survey polled production and exploration companies in Texas about break-even oil prices. On average, the minimum WTI price needed to cover expenses for existing wells ranged between $26 bbl in the Eagle Ford shale to $45 bbl in the non-Midland Permian. Break-evens for new wells, however, were significantly higher. Survey respondents said an average WTI spot price of $61 bbl to $70 bbl is needed to profitably drill new wells. The EIA expects an average WTI spot price of $51.26 bbl in 2026.

New wells are needed as legacy production tends to rapidly deplete, and a spot price in the low 50s may render replacement rate required to keep up with current production levels unfeasible. In fact, oil producers’ outlooks have soured considerably, according to the Dallas Fed’s third quarter survey. Companies reported above-average rising costs and falling capital expenditures.

The index for E&P firms’ expected level of capital expenditures next year was down 16 points year-on-year and close to 10 points from last quarter, with 43.7% of respondents reporting a decrease.

Regulatory changes by the federal government, meanwhile, seem to have only marginally boosted an industry which is ailing from global overproduction, high borrowing costs and tariffs raising the cost of business.

More than half of exploration and production firm executives polled by the third quarter survey estimated that regulatory changes lowered their break-even costs by less than $1 bbl. Given current market conditions and outlooks, U.S. production growth is set to slow down, but may still peak later than expected.

Tougher sanctions enforcement on Russian and Iranian oil could provide support to prices, and the cancellation of tariffs could lower input prices, both factors which would delay peak production.

Downside risks remain from OPEC doubling down on their strategy to regain market share and stimy U.S. shale by opening the spigots. In the face of still growing global demand, an all-out market share war like in early 2020, however, is unlikely, not least given member states’ vastly different break-even prices, economic interests and levels of reliance on oil export revenues.