MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for November 12th

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

—  AAR: Petroleum Carloads Down 2.2% for Week to Nov. 8

—  EIA: U.S. Natural Gas Prices to Rise in Winter Driven by Exports

—  IEA Anticipates Global EV Sales to Exceed 50% by 2035

—  EIA Eyes Brent at $55 in 2026 Due to Global Stocks Build

—  JOLT to Expand EV Charging Operations in the U.S.

—  OPEC Flips View to Q3 Surplus on U.S. Output Growth

—  EIA: U.S. Retail Gasoline Average Climbs 3.7cts Last Week

—  EIA: U.S. Diesel Price Rises 8.4cts on Week

—  IEA: Natural Gas Glut Likely on Record LNG Capacity Growth

—  OPEC+ Output Fell 73,000 Bpd in October

—  IEA: Oil Demand to Peak by 2030 Under Stated Policies

NEWS:

AAR: Petroleum Carloads Down 2.2% for Week to Nov. 8

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) data show petroleum and petroleum product carloads totaled 10,843 in the week ending November 8, down by 2.2% from the same week a year ago.

Year to date, petroleum and petroleum products carloads totaled 465,589, down by 1.1% from the corresponding period of the prior year, AAR reported this week.

AAR reports total U.S. weekly rail traffic at 493,493 carloads and intermodal units in the week profiled, down 4.9% when compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week-ended November 8 reached 224,651, down 0.1% compared to the same week last year, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 268,842 containers and trailers, a 8.7% decrease from the previous year.

For the first 45 weeks of 2025, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 10,004,661 carloads, higher by 1.8% compared to the same period of last year, and 12,211,278 intermodal units, up 2.5% from the prior year.

Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 44 weeks of 2025 was 22,215,939 carloads and intermodal units, reflecting a 2.2% increase compared to last year.

EIA: U.S. Natural Gas Prices to Rise in Winter Driven by Exports

U.S. natural gas markets are tightening as winter approaches, with the Energy Information Administration projecting higher Henry Hub prices and continued growth in liquefied natural gas exports through 2026. The agency’s November Short Term Energy Outlook forecasts prices rising amid steady demand and limited production growth.

The agency projects Henry Hub prices will average $4.00/MMBtu in 2026, up 16% from 2025, due largely to expanding LNG export capacity coupled with flat production growth.

The EIA expects the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub spot price to average $4.00 per million British thermal units over the 2025-26 winter heating season, peaking at $4.25/MMBtu in January. October’s average price climbed to about $3.20/MMBtu, marking a 45% increase from the same month last year, even as inventories held roughly steady and sat 4% above the five-year average.

Natural gas prices typically follow seasonal demand patterns, with colder weather driving higher consumption for space heating. EIA analysts, however, say another major factor will drive prices higher next year exports.

U.S. marketed natural gas production is forecast to hover near 118.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026, reflecting only modest year-over-year growth. Consumption trends, meanwhile, are shifting with weather patterns. EIA expects lower residential and commercial demand this winter down about 5% from last winter as forecasts call for warmer temperatures and 3% fewer heating degree days than last year.

Despite easing domestic consumption, U.S. producers are finding strong demand abroad. Industrial and electric power sectors are projected to sustain baseline consumption through 2026, helping stabilize the domestic market.

Liquefied natural gas exports remain the standout story in the EIA’s forecast.

The U.S. is expected to export 14.9 Bcf/d of LNG in 2025, a 25% jump from last year, driven by new capacity coming online ahead of schedule. The Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana, which recently brought its final block into service earlier than expected, boosted the agency’s 4Q25 LNG forecast by 3% compared with October’s outlook.

By 2026, total LNG exports are projected to increase another 10%, reaching 16.3 Bcf/d as Golden Pass LNG Trains 1-2 and Corpus Christi Stage 3 Blocks begin operations. These additions will contribute 2.1 Bcf/d of new export capacity by year’s end.

With domestic production leveling off and LNG exports expanding, the U.S. natural gas market is entering a period of tighter supply and firmer prices. While residential consumers may see only modest changes due to utility regulations; with the average home heating price expected to rise just 2% to $13.80 per thousand cubic feet this winter, industrial users and global buyers could feel the brunt of rising Henry Hub prices through 2026

IEA Anticipates Global EV Sales to Exceed 50% by 2035

Global electric vehicle sales are projected to exceed 50% of the total automobile market over the next decade, displacing 10 million bpd of oil, the International Energy Agency said in its World Energy Outlook 2025 released Wednesday (11/12).

Under the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the global electric vehicle (EV) sales share is projected to rise from over 20% today to over 50% by 2035. This trajectory would increase the global electric vehicle stock — excluding two/three-wheelers — from under 45 million recorded in 2023 to 525 million by 2035.

This increase will be driven by manufacturing competition and policy support in key markets including China, Europe, and the U.S. The projected fleet of over 840 million electric vehicles is expected to displace 10 million bpd of oil by 2035, primarily in Asia and Europe, according to the agency.

However, the IEA highlights two structural challenges requiring action to sustain the transition. First is the supply chain for critical minerals; the electrification process requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car. Supply from existing mines and projects under construction is estimated to meet only half of the projected lithium and cobalt requirements by 2030.

Second is electricity grid congestion. Proactive grid expansion and regulatory reforms are required to accommodate increased electricity demand from EVs and charge point deployment, particularly for heavy-duty vehicles.

EIA Eyes Brent at $55 in 2026 Due to Global Stocks Build

Brent crude is expected to average $55 bbl in 2026, compared with $69 bbl in 2025 and $81 bbl in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for November released Wednesday (11/12). The agency said Brent prices will likely fall to $54 bbl in the first quarter of 2026 as rising global oil inventories continue to weigh on markets.

U.S. crude prices are seen following a similar path, with values declining through early 2026 as global supplies outpace demand. The EIA said its 2026 Brent forecast is $3 bbl higher than last month’s due to revised assumptions about Chinese stockpiling and the impact of recent sanctions on Russia.

The EIA projects global oil inventories will increase by an average of 1.8 million bpd in 2025 and 2.2 million bpd in 2026, with the largest builds expected in the fourth quarter of this year and  the first quarter of next year, averaging 2.7 million bpd.

OPEC+ production is anticipated to rise in line with the group’s output targets through year end, though members plan to pause additional increases through March 2026 amid lower seasonal demand.

U.S. crude oil production is projected to average 13.6 million bpd in both 2025 and 2026, maintaining record highs.

The EIA raised its domestic forecast slightly from October after reporting July production above 13.6 million bpd. Supply growth continues to be driven by the United States, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada, which together account for more than two-thirds of global output increases through next year.

With crude prices easing, the EIA expects the average U.S. retail gasoline price to remain near $3.10 gallon in 2025 before falling to just under $3.00 gallon in 2026, the lowest annual average since 2020.

The EIA-STEO report projects U.S. diesel prices to average about $3.66 gallon this year and decline to roughly $3.50 gallon in 2026. The EIA said lower crude costs remain the main driver, though rising diesel crack spreads could limit how much of the crude price decline reaches consumers.

JOLT to Expand EV Charging Operations in the U.S.

Electric vehicle charging network JOLT announced Wednesday (11/12) it was officially entering the U.S. market after acquiring Shell’s Volta Media Network to provide free or subsidized EV charging.

With operations across Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the U.K., JOLT’s is expected to add thousands of new U.S. locations to the Volta network, covering 34 states and 64 designated marketing areas that include Los Angeles, Chicago and Dallas–Fort Worth, to offer “subsidized (and often free) charging sessions to drivers”.

The acquisition, announced Wednesday, is scheduled to conclude on January 1, 2026, JOLT stated.

OPEC Flips View to Q3 Surplus on U.S. Output Growth

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries estimated that the global oil market was oversupplied in the third quarter as a result of growing U.S. production, according to its latest monthly oil market report released Wednesday (11/12) morning.

OPEC’s November report pegged the global surplus at 500,000 bpd in the third quarter of the year, a 900,000-bpd swing from its estimate a month earlier. Global oil inventories have increased by 304 million bbl in the first nine months of 2025, the report stated.

Oil stocks within the Organization for Economic Co-operation (OECD) expanded by 90 million bbl, while non-OECD inventories by 62 million bbl in the January to September period. Oil on water, meanwhile, climbed by 156 million bbl.

In the OECD Americas region, crude oil inventories expanded by 12 million bbl due to year-on-year drop in refining activity. Oil product stockpiles grew by 46 million bbl. The swelling of product inventories in the Americas was entirely concentrated in the second and third quarters.

U.S. liquids production at 22.81 million bpd in the third quarter, up from 22.43 million bpd quarter on quarter, and pegged the average U.S. production growth rate in 2025 at 410,000 bpd. Production growth is expected to slow markedly in 2026, however, it is expected to reach at 100,000 bpd, with Brazil and Canada overtaking the U.S. in the top non-OPEC production growth ranking.

OPEC’s monthly report left global oil demand growth forecasts for this and next year unchanged at 1.3 million bpd and 1.38 million bpd, respectively, but lowered forecasted demand for OPEC crude oil by 100,000 bpd for both this year and next to annual growth rates of 300,000 bpd in 2025 and 600,000 bpd in 2026. Demand forecasts for OPEC crude oil are based on the difference between expected non-OPEC supply and global oil demand.

Refining margins improved across all regions last month, driven by lower processing rates and lower crude prices. Middle distillate cracks fared particularly well. On the U.S. Gulf Coast, refining margins reached a 19-month high in October as tight product balances and low inventories led to gains for middle distillates and heavier products.

In contrast, the outlook for U.S. gasoline softened amid seasonally lower demand and the switch to winter-grade gasoline resulting in higher gasoline yields. Cracks for light products fared less well than for middle and heavy distillates, despite a significant decline in gasoline stocks in October.

EIA: U.S. Retail Gasoline Average Climbs 3.7cts Last Week

The national average for retail regular gasoline rose in the week ended November 10, marking the first increase in two weeks as prices advanced in most major regions, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed Tuesday (11/12).

The U.S. average for regular gasoline climbed by 3.7cts to $3.056 gallon, standing 0.4cts higher compared to the same week last year.

East Coast (PADD 1) gasoline prices slipped by 0.5cts to $2.912 gallon, 9.0cts lower than last year.

Within the East Coast, New England (PADD 1A) increased by 4.1cts to $2.972 gallon, 2.6cts below the same week last year.

Central Atlantic (PADD 1B) rose by 3.5cts to $3.095 gallon, down 2.2cts from 2024.

Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) fell by 4.1cts to $2.782 gallon, 15.0cts lower than the corresponding week in 2024.

Midwest (PADD 2) prices advanced 8.2cts to $2.910 gallon, standing 4.4cts higher compared to last year.

Gulf Coast (PADD 3) posted the largest weekly rise, climbing 8.8cts to $2.599 gallon, while remaining 3.1cts lower than a year earlier.

Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) prices slipped 2.9cts to $2.909 gallon, 16.6cts below last year.

West Coast (PADD 5) gasoline edged up 3.1cts to $4.159 gallon, standing 23.5cts above the corresponding week of 2024.  West Coast less California dipped by 0.8cts to $3.783 gallon, 21.8cts higher year-on-year.

EIA: U.S. Diesel Price Rises 8.4cts on Week

The national average price for retail diesel fuel climbed by 8.4cts as of Monday (11/10), extending last week’s increase, with increases seen across all U.S. regions, according to the latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The national average for retail diesel fuel rose by 8.4cts to $3.837 gallon, standing 31.6cts above the price from the same week last year, EIA data on Tuesday (11/12) showed.

Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) posted the largest weekly increase, up 12.7cts to $3.803 gallon, 27.8cts above last year’s level.

Following closely, Midwest (PADD 2) advanced 11.8cts to $3.891 gallon as of November 10, while standing 38.7cts higher on the year.

East Coast (PADD 1) average diesel prices increased by 6.9cts to $3.823 gallon, while remaining 24.4cts higher than a year ago.

On the East Coast, Central Atlantic (PADD 1B) rose 4.8cts to $3.956 gallon, Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) advanced 8.3cts to $3.761 gallon, and New England (PADD 1A) edged 1.9cts higher to $3.955 gallon.

Gulf Coast (PADD 3) prices were up 6.2cts to $3.436 gallon, remaining 26.6cts above the same week last year.

West Coast (PADD 5) average diesel prices rose 4.6cts to $4.545 gallon, marking a 36.5cts year-on-year rise. West Coast less California gained 4.0cts to $4.161 gallon, while California edged 5.5cts higher to $4.988 gallon, both standing well above year-ago levels.

IEA: Natural Gas Glut Likely on Record LNG Capacity Growth

Global natural gas markets are poised for a supply glut driven by an unprecedented wave of LNG capacity coming online by the end of the decade, the International Energy Agency said in its World Energy Outlook 2025 published Wednesday (11/12).

The IEA projects that around 300 billion cubic meters per year of new LNG export capacity will enter operation by 2030.

Representing a 50% increase in global LNG availability, it will be the largest wave of capacity additions in history and is expected to profoundly shift market dynamics.

Much of the additional supply will be in the U.S. and Qatar, which together account for 70% of new liquefaction capacity.

The U.S. alone could account for one-third of global LNG supply by 2030, up from 20% in 2024, cementing its role as the largest exporter of the commodity, with a record amount of liquefaction capacity reaching Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) in 2025.

Global demand growth for gas may not be sufficient to absorb the supply coming on board, says the IEA, which expects a 65-billion cubic meters surplus over the 2024-2030 period. 

While the supply influx will significantly enhance global energy security, it will also place downward pressure on gas prices.

New demand for natural gas – which saw the strongest growth among fossil fuels in 2024 – will be centered in Asia. Emerging and developing Asian economies led by India and China drove nearly 40% of additional gas consumption last year, primarily due to rising industrial activity and increased electricity generation to meet growing cooling demand.

Under the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), global gas demand continues to climb through 2035 before plateauing. However, in the less stringent Current Policies Scenario (CPS), consumption continues its ascent to 5,600 billion cubic meters by 2050, underscoring the fuel’s vital, but controversial, role as a transition bridge for developing economies.

OPEC+ Output Fell 73,000 Bpd in October

Combined crude oil production by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners surprisingly fell last month, despite a 137,000-bpd increase in production targets, according to the organization’s latest monthly oil report published Wednesday (11/12). The decline was spearheaded by a 155,000-bpd decrease in Kazakh crude oil production, as its main Tengiz field was under maintenance. Output from members of the Declaration of Cooperation, the OPEC+ group excluding Libya, Venezuela and Iran, rose by 31,000 bpd month-on-month.

OPEC+’s so-called group of eight – member countries which had agreed to hike output by 137,000 bpd in October, was up 25,000 bpd from September as the drop in Kazakh production cancelled out increases from Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The production estimates are based on secondary sources as opposed to direct communication from member countries.

OPEC’s latest report left global oil demand growth forecasts for this and next year unchanged at 1.3 million bpd and 1.38 million bpd, respectively. Despite this, the report for the first time flagged a market surplus in the third quarter on the back of rising U.S. production, joining forecasting agencies like the International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

IEA: Oil Demand to Peak by 2030 Under Stated Policies

Global oil demand is on track to peak around 2030, but only if governments deliver fully on their stated climate and energy targets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported in its latest World Energy Outlook 2025 published Wednesday (11/12) morning.

The IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which accounts for current government policies and announced ambitions, projects global oil demand will reach a high of approximately 102 million bpd near the end of the decade before entering a gradual decline.

This forecast underpins a long-term structural shift in the energy landscape, evidenced by oil’s share of total global energy demand falling below 30% in 2024 for the first time in five decades.

However, the outlook changes sharply under the more conservative Current Policies Scenario (CPS), which considers only laws already enacted. Under this trajectory, global oil demand continues to rise, reaching 113 million bpd by 2050, with no peak occurring before mid-century.

The downward pressure on road transport oil consumption from electric vehicle uptake is projected to be partially offset by other sectors. The agency notes that demand for oil in non-road sectors, specifically petrochemicals and aviation, is forecast to continue increasing through 2050, even in the STEPS.

Oil markets appear well-supplied in the near term, the IEA projects largely due to a surge in output from a quintet of producers in the Americas — the U.S., Canada, Guyana, Brazil, and Argentina. This current supply surplus coexists with geopolitical fragility and subdued oil prices.

Looking forward, the IEA stresses that underlying production declines from existing fields mean the current supply overhang will dissipate relatively quickly in the CPS.

To keep markets balanced under this scenario, some 25 million bpd of new oil supply projects are needed by 2035, a requirement that would necessitate a rise in oil prices to incentivize the necessary upstream investment.

Furthermore, energy market dynamics are increasingly being shaped by a group of emerging economies, including India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa, who are collectively taking up the baton of energy demand growth from China.