MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for October 31^st

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— USWC Fuel Market Volatile on Seasonal Spec Changes

— U.S. Natural Gas Output Sets Record in August

— Baker Hughes: North America Rig Count Down 16 Last week

— Chevron Q3 Earnings Down 21% vs 3Q24 on Weaker Upstream

— PCE Index Release Delayed by U.S. Government Shutdown

— Exxon Q3 Profit Down 12% Y-o-Y on Weak Crude Prices

NEWS:

USWC Fuel Market Volatile on Seasonal Spec Changes

The U.S. West Coast fuel market remained volatile in October  as refiners completed the seasonal transition from summer-grade to winter-grade gasoline, a process that often disrupts supply balances and trading dynamics across the region.
The shift, mandated by environmental regulations, allows refiners to produce fuels with higher Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) in cooler months to enhance vehicle performance.

However, that transition also typically forces refiners to draw down summer grade inventories before introducing winter grade blends, leading to temporary tightness and price swings.

Los Angeles CARBOB traded at a 71 cents premium to December NYMEX RBOB futures on Friday (10/31)  – the highest since early September – reflecting continued tightness and uneven inventory levels across the U.S. West Coast as refiners complete the seasonal transition to winter-grade gasoline.

The sharp premium also marks a significant widening from August levels, when Los Angeles CARBOB spot differentials traded at a 10 cents premium to September NYMEX RBOB futures.

Chevron’s 269,000 bpd El Segundo refinery a key supplier of transportation fuels for Southern California has faced multiple incidents this month. This includes a flaring event on October 21, which was reported to the South Coast Air Quality Management District with the cause listed as “initial determination unknown.”

Earlier this month, the refinery experienced additional flaring on October 9, 14, and 15, following an October 2 explosion that impacted the Isomax 7 hydrocracking unit, critical for producing jet fuel and gasoline. The facility supplies about 20% of Southern California’s gasoline and 40% of its jet fuel, making any operational setbacks highly consequential for regional pricing.

Jet fuel markets have mirrored this disruption in its price volatility. Los Angeles jet fuel basis now stands at 25cts premium to December NYMEX RBOB futures, supported by tight supply fundamentals linked to the ongoing flaring and constrained output at El Segundo. Earlier in the month, jet fuel basis briefly spiked to 35cts premium over November futures before retreating, as traders cited limited availability and disrupted deliveries.

Logistical challenges, including restricted terminal storage and staggered delivery schedules, have further amplified volatility across Los Angeles and San Francisco markets. Similar conditions have been observed in the Pacific Northwest, where cooler temperatures have accelerated the switch to winter-grade gasoline.
While the seasonal shift is expected to stabilize by mid-November, market participants say lingering refinery issues and thin inventories could keep West Coast fuel premiums elevated into early winter.

U.S. Natural Gas Output Sets Record in August

U.S. dry natural gas production rose for the sixth consecutive month in August 2025, hitting the highest level since records began in 1973, the Energy Information Administration reported.

Dry gas output totaled 3,382 Bcf versus 3,195 Bcf in August last year. On a daily basis, divided over 31 days for a month, that would be 109.1 Bcfd for August, up about 5.8% from 103.1 Bcfd a year ago.

Gross withdrawals for August also increased 5.9% to 4,078 Bcf. The daily rate of 131.5 Bcfd makes it the strongest since 1980.

Consumption declined 3% year over year to 2,642 Bcf, or 85.2 Bcfd, with lower use across most sectors. Residential deliveries fell 2.8%, industrial use dipped 0.6%, and electric power demand dropped 5.8%. Only commercial deliveries rose, up 2.7% to 4.9 Bcfd; the highest for August since 2001 according to EIA data.

Exports surged to a record 761 Bcf, or 24.5 Bcfd, up 17.1% from a year earlier, while imports fell 8.8% to 7.7 Bcfd. Liquefied natural gas exports climbed around 24% to 14.5 Bcfd, reaching 32 countries. The U.S. remained a strong net exporter, with the lowest net import volume since 1973.

Record output and exports in August underscored the U.S. natural gas sector’s growing global influence, even as domestic demand softened.

Baker Hughes: North America Rig Count Down 16 Last week

North American drilling activity fell sharply this week, with a net drop of 16 rigs across the U.S. and Canada to 733, according to Baker Hughes data released Friday (10/31).

Total rigs operating in the United States fell by four to 546, while staying 39 below from the same week last year.

In the U.S., oil-directed rigs were down six at 414, while gas rigs rose by four to 125 week-over-week. Miscellaneous rigs fell by two to seven.

On the North American front, land-based drilling lost two rigs to 525. Offshore activity also slid by two to 19, while inland waters were unchanged at two rigs. The Gulf of Mexico rig count fell by one to 11.

Canada’s total rig count dropped by 12 to 187, with oil-directed rigs down 11 to 127 and gas rigs lower by one to 60. Total rigs for Canada were 26 below last year’s level.

Chevron Q3 Earnings Down 21% vs 3Q24 on Weaker Upstream

Chevron reported third quarter earnings of $3.5 billion, down 21% from $4.5 billion in the third quarter 2024, as higher production volumes were offset by lower upstream realizations, weaker oil prices and acquisition costs for Hess Corp., the company said.

Sales and other operating revenues in the third quarter were $48.17 billion, down from $48.93 billion in the year-ago period due primarily to lower crude prices, which fell 16% on the year, according to the release.

U.S. upstream earnings totaled $3.3 billion versus $4.59 billion last year, primarily on lower realizations partially offset by higher production volumes in the Permian Basin, Chevron said.

U.S. net oil-equivalent production was up 435,000 bpd from third quarter 2024, primarily due to strong performance that boosted U.S. production by a record 27%, the company said.

Chevron’s third quarter U.S. downstream earnings at $1.137 billion were higher from $595 million in the year ago quarter, mostly due to higher margins on refined product sales, according to the release.

Refinery crude oil inputs increased 7% from the year-ago period, primarily due to increased capacity at the Pasadena, Texas refinery, the company said.

Refinery product sales were down 0.7% from the year ago period, primarily due to lower gasoline and diesel demand, Chevron said.

PCE Index Release Delayed by U.S. Government Shutdown

Publication of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index for September has been delayed by the federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said Friday (10/31).

“Due to a lapse in appropriations, this website is not being updated,” the BEA said.

The last PCE update was for August was published on September 26.

Exxon Q3 Profit Down 12% Y-o-Y on Weak Crude Prices

ExxonMobil reported on Friday (10/31) a 12% drop in third-quarter net profit from a year ago, citing record oil production in the Permian basin and Guyana that were offset by weaker crude prices, chemical margins and growth costs, the company said in its earnings release.

Net profit for the three months ending September was $7.55 billion versus $8.61 billion in the July-September period of last year, the company said. It was slightly higher than the $7.08 billion in the second quarter of this year, according to the release.

“We delivered the highest earnings per share we’ve had compared to other quarters in a similar oil-price environment,” Chairman and CEO Darren Woods said. EPS for the quarter in review was at $1.76, against $1.92 in the third quarter 2024, the company said.

Woods said ExxonMobil broke production quarterly production records in Guyana, surpassing 700,000 bpd, and started up the Yellowtail development there four months early and under budget.

In the Permian, the oil major set another all-time high for output, with nearly 1.7 million boepd, according to the release. It also continued to expand the use of proprietary technologies that improved well recoveries by up to 20% and started up eight of its 10 key projects for 2025, with the balance two on track, the company said.

At the same time, earnings were decreased by weaker crude prices, bottom-of-cycle chemical margins, higher depreciation, growth costs, and lower base volumes from strategic divestments, ExxonMobil said.

Crude prices have tumbled this year amid record U.S. oil output and also higher production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Brent, the global benchmark for crude, currently trades at under $65 bbl, down almost 16% on the year.