MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News April 10th:

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— CFTC: Speculators Cut WTI Longs in Brief Return to $100

— Baker Hughes: Weekly North America Rig Count Down by 10

— BTS: U.S. Carriers Had 69.5M Passengers in January

— UMich: U.S. Consumer Sentiment at 4-Month Low

— Analysis: EIA Sees Exports at 4-Mo High Amid Supply Crunch

— Analysis: U.S. Fuel Prices to Stay High Amid Demand Bump

— US CPI Up 3.3% Y-o-Y in March, Gasoline Index Up, USD Drops

NEWS:

CFTC: Speculators Cut WTI Longs in Brief Return to $100

Bullish bets in NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid during the week ended April 7 as futures of the U.S. oil benchmark routinely struggled below the $100 bbl mark from volatility related to the Iran war, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed Friday (4/10).

Speculative net longs in gasoline and distillates also shrank while net shorts in natural gas grew, signaling that money managers were bearish across the board in energy futures.

In WTI, noncommercial long positions rose by 3,528 contracts to 381,615, the CFTC said in its weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report for the week ended April 7. Noncommercial short positions rose by 14,863 contracts to 179,462.

This caused net noncommercial longs in WTI to shrink by 11,335 to 202,153. Open interest in WTI rose by 6,887 contracts to 2,037,857.

Those moves came as the front-month contract in NYMEX WTI witnessed volatility from developments in the Middle East conflict constantly pressured the U.S. crude benchmark below the $100 bbl mark. On April 7, during the final session covered by the CFTC’s latest weekly COT report, WTI’s May delivery contract fell to $96.50 bbl.

In NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures, noncommercial long positions fell by 7,031 contracts to 80,253, while short positions rose by 1,703 contracts to 20,661. This caused the noncommercial net long position to shrink by 8,734 contracts to 59,592.

Open interest in gasoline was down by 8,021 contracts to 320,497.

In NYMEX ULSD futures, noncommercial long positions fell by 1,084 contracts to 34,892, while short positions rose by 121 contracts to 26,005. These changes caused the noncommercial net long position in ULSD to shrink by 1,205 contracts to 8,887.

Open interest in ULSD fell by 5,915 contracts to 228,879.

In NYMEX natural gas futures, noncommercial long positions rose by 8,730 contracts to 212,869 while short positions rose by 25,261 to 396,856. That caused the net short position in natural gas to grow by 16,531 contracts to 183,987. Open interest in natural gas rose by 44,355 contracts to 1,558,863.

Baker Hughes: Weekly North America Rig Count Down by 10

North American energy drilling activity declined by 10 rigs this week, according to Baker Hughes’ weekly report released Friday (4/10).

The report shows the regional rig count at 680 in the current week, compared to 690 recorded the previous week.

Rigs for Canada and the U.S. combined were lower than the 721 actively deployed in the same week of last year. This week’s change was largely driven by declines in Canada, where the count fell by seven to 135 this week, and from 138 a year ago.

In the U.S., the count dropped by three to 545, compared with the prior week’s 548.  A year ago, U.S. rigs totaled 583.

This week in the U.S., rigs in inland waters were unchanged at one, while offshore rigs climbed by three to 14. Rigs on land fell by six to 530.

By trajectory, directional rigs in the U.S. rose by five to 50. Horizontal rigs fell by two to 483 while vertical rigs decreased by four to stand at 12.

BTS: U.S. Carriers Had 69.5M Passengers in January

U.S. airlines carried 69.5 million systemwide passengers in January 2026, a 1.8% decrease from the same month last year, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics reported Friday (4/10).

The total includes 59.1 million domestic and 10.4 million international passengers traveling on U.S. airline flights throughout the month.

The agency noted that seasonally adjusted enplanements fell 1.1% from December and remained 3.7% below the all-time high reached in June 2024. While domestic passenger numbers fell 4.1% from the 2020 high, international boardings reached a new record for the month of January.

UMich: U.S. Consumer Sentiment at 4-Month Low

U.S. consumer sentiment hit four-month lows in April, according to preliminary data on Friday (4/10) from the University of Michigan (UMich), which saw a 11% decline in its headline consumer index as the war in Iran upended U.S. energy prices.

UMich’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 47.6 points in early April from its 53.3-point reading at end-March. Year-on-year, the index was down about 9% from its April 2025 reading of 52.2.

“Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall,” UMich’s Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said, adding that the decline began with the start of the Iran conflict on February 27.

Separately, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that U.S. headline inflation rose in March as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% year-on-year as energy costs surged from the war in Iran.

The CPI reading marked the highest annual inflation rate in almost two years and was below the market expectation of a yearly CPI growth of 3.4% in March versus February’s 2.4%.

Analysis: EIA Sees Exports at 4-Mo High Amid Supply Crunch

U.S. crude oil and product exports combined soared to their highest levels last week since mid-December, underscoring the prolific rise in international demand for energy products out of the United States as refiners and consumers worldwide scramble to replace shut-in supply from the Middle East and curbed production out of Asia.

The export surge during the week ended April 3 was particularly pronounced in refined products, which set one of the fastest paces on record. Over the past four weeks, U.S. product exports averaged more than 7.46 million bpd, up 12% year-on-year, a pace only rivaled by the surge seen last December, according to EIA data released Wednesday (4/8).

In the four weeks preceding the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, product exports averaged less than 6.81 million bpd.

With the outbreak of the war on February 27, international buyers turned to U.S. refiners to fill the gap in middle distillates and blending components. Distillate fuel oil exports clocked in at the fastest pace in 19 weeks at close to 1.58 million bpd last week. On the four-week average, they were 12% higher than in the same period last year.

Exports of other oils, which include light liquids from natural gas processing, condensates not classified as crude oil, unfinished oils, and a slew of fuel blending components, stood at 2.73 million bpd over the past four weeks, marking a more than 16% year-on-year increase.

U.S. crude exports rebounded from a two-week lull, averaging just shy of 4.15 million bpd, and up 628,000 bpd week-on-week. WTI’s steep discount to Brent in March likely led to a surge in cargo bookings, which will show up in export data in the next few weeks. This, in combination with high demand for refined products, may push total petroleum exports to new heights in the weeks to come. Storage capacity at export ports and pipeline capacity transporting crude oil to terminals will likely be the limiting factors.

The arbitrage window for crude has since narrowed, but the one for clean cargo shipments to Asia and Europe stays wide open. The two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran may lead to a resumption of crude oil flows from the Persian Gulf, but it will take weeks for global refined product supply to normalize once traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is back to business as usual.

Analysis: U.S. Fuel Prices to Stay High Amid Demand Bump

Last week, the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline at the pump breached the $4-mark for the first time in four years. In March alone, it rocketed by more than 33%, driven by the oil price rally kicked off by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and the subsequent shut-in of almost a fifth of global petroleum supply. This week, retail prices inched lower as oil prices dropped in reaction to a two-week ceasefire. However, prices at the pump are set to stay elevated, amid an expected surge in domestic and international demand, and fuel prices will likely take weeks if not months to normalize once the largest oil supply crisis in history has been fully resolved.

Front-month WTI futures have rallied 55% in March and are currently 50% higher than at the start of the conflict, on February 27. RBOB and ULSD futures mimicked the movement in crude futures. Consequently, retail gasoline prices have soared more than $1.2 gallon and were 27% higher than at the same time last year, according to the American Automobile Association. The surge in diesel prices was even steeper, with the national average topping $5.6 gallon, up 56% year-on-year.

Oil prices are bound to soften with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and resumption of oil flows from the Persian Gulf, once permanent. They may, however, stay considerably above pre-war levels, as some oil and product supply will take time to be fully restored. Oil fields, refineries and loading terminals were damaged in the war, and production which was forced shut amid the lack of outlets will take time to return. Oil inventories, filled to the brim, will be able to bridge this gap on the export side, but a risk premium tied to the volatile geopolitical situation is likely to remain.

The supply screws are being loosened just as the U.S. is heading into the main summer driving season and international demand for U.S. fuels is skyrocketing as refiners and consumers worldwide are scrambling to replace shut-in supply from the Middle East and curbed production from Asia. The Energy Information Administration last week reported U.S. product exports at an all-time high. Over the past four weeks, they have averaged more than 7.46 million bpd, up 12% year-on-year.

While the price increase in gasoline has been steep, it was dwarfed by the jump in diesel and jet fuel prices. In addition to cutting off millions of barrels of medium and heavy crude flows with a high diesel yield, the more than month-long de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also shut in some 5 million bpd of refined products, mostly in the form of middle distillates. The lack of crude flows forced refiners particularly in Asia to throttle production and halt fuel exports, further tightening global diesel supply.

The EIA in its latest short-term energy outlook flipped the global inventory forecast for 2026 from a 1.9 million bpd build to a 300,000-bpd draw, with an average WTI spot price of $87.41 bbl, marking an 18.7% upward revision from last month’s STEO. Given the steep increase in input costs and the outsized effect the Middle East supply crisis has on middle distillates, average 2026 retail diesel and gasoline prices are expected to be 31% and 19% above year-ago levels, respectively.

The current supply crisis underlying last month’s price spike is affecting more actual barrels than the one leading to $5 gallon prices in the summer of 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This time around, the crude price rally was less pronounced as the market entered the current situation with much higher reserves, oil oversupply, and production in particular outside of the Middle East outgrowing demand for at least a year. Given the restraints on the fuels side, however, gasoline and diesel prices are likely to soften at a much slower pace than underlying oil prices.

US CPI Up 3.3% Y-o-Y in March, Gasoline Index Up, USD Drops

U.S. headline inflation rose in March as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% year-on-year, posting a reading just below expectations but well above the prior month, as energy costs surged from the war in Iran.

It was the highest annual inflation rate in almost two years and was below the market expectation of a yearly CPI growth of 3.4% in March versus February’s 2.4% .

Core inflation, as measured by the CPI’s all-items less food and energy index, came in at 2.6%, versus an expectation of 2.7% after a 2.5% growth in February.

Broader inflation itself has persistently remained above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2% per annum, undermining the central bank’s rationale for interest rate cuts.

The Fed, which relies more on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index for its inflation readings, withheld a rate cut in March for a second time since the start of the year on inflation concerns. Its last cut of 25 basis points in December % left rates in a range of 3.5–3.75%.

The March CPI data showed the energy index rising 10.9% over the month, after a mere 0.6% expansion in February.  That was driven primarily by a 21.2% increase in the index for gasoline as average pump prices in the U.S. stood at $4.12 gallon last week versus $3.516 a month ago, driven primarily by global oil supply disruptions triggered by the war in Iran, data from the Energy Information Administration showed.

The surge in March energy costs also coincided with higher heating bills for many consumers in the U.S. amid rallying prices of natural gas, the main energy component used during the winter. Both natural gas and crude oil prices have remained higher since the start of March, responding to the Iran war that has disrupted the global supply chain in energy.

By comparison, the food index rose by a more modest 2.7% year-on-year in March. The shelter index climbed by an annual 0.3%.

On the heels of the latest CPI data, WTI crude oil for April delivery on NYMEX was down $0.29, or 0.3%, at $97.58 bbl by 8:55 a.m. ET.

The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.114 points to 98.475 against a basket of currencies.