MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for March 10th:

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— New 160,000 bpd Texas Refinery Breaks 50-Year U.S. Drought

— Midwest Distillate Basis Jumps 8-9cts on Crude Volatility

— EIA: STEO Eyes Brent at Above $78 bbl, WTI $73 bbl in 2026

— EIA: Henry Hub Spot Price Falls Nearly 13% from Feb. STEO

— U.S. Crude Exports Drop for the First Time in 4 Years

— Analysis: U.S. Refiner Margins At Risk Despite Oil Price Dip

— Analysis: Supply Crunch to Stay Despite Crude Spreads Ease

— EIA: U.S. Diesel Prices Continue to Rise, Up 96.2cts on Week

— EIA: U.S. Gasoline Climbs 48.7cts on Week

— U.S. Rack Gasoline Prices Extend Gains; ULSD Pulls Back

— Shell Sells Jiffy Lube to Monomoy Capital for $1.3B

NEWS:

New 160,000 bpd Texas Refinery Breaks 50-Year U.S. Drought

America First Refining, the first new refinery in the U.S. in almost in 50 years, has been officially launched with a target of processing 160,000 bpd, media reports said Tuesday (3/10).

Located at Port of Brownsville, Texas, the greenfield refinery is owned by Element Fuels Holdings LLC and is engineered to process 100% U.S. shale oil, rather than the imported, heavy crude that most U.S. refineries are built for.

Before America First, the last new refinery constructed in the U.S. was Marathon Petroleum’s facility in Garyville, Louisiana, which opened in 1977 with an initial capacity of 200,000 bpd before expanding to nearly 600,000 bpd.

Midwest Distillate Basis Jumps 8-9cts on Crude Volatility

Midwest ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) basis strengthened Tuesday (3/10) as regional cash markets adjusted following sharp volatility across energy futures markets, which has driven wide swings across the distillates complex.

Chicago ULSD basis strengthened 8cts on the session to a 17cts discount to April NYMEX ULSD futures, while the same product moving through the Buckeye Complex and the Wolverine pipeline strengthened by 9cts to a 16cts discount, according to DTN data. In the jet fuel market, Chicago jet fuel strengthened 9cts to a 16cts discount, while Group 3 jet fuel, commonly referred to as “Q,” strengthened 15cts to a 35cts discount.

“Honestly this swing in distillates is mainly a reflection of the wild swings in crude oil prices,” a source familiar with the Midwest market said. “When crude moves aggressively either way, distillate basis tends to adjust as the market recalibrates replacement costs and traders reassess near term supply.”

The narrowing discounts suggest regional cash markets are reacting to broader movements across the crude and ULSD futures markets rather than a sudden shift in Midwest supply fundamentals. Sharp swings in those contracts often ripple through distillate markets, prompting adjustments in rack and spot pricing as traders reposition around rapidly changing flat price levels.

EIA: STEO Eyes Brent at Above $78 bbl, WTI $73 bbl in 2026

The Energy Information Administration reviewed its 2026 forecast for Brent crude to an average $78.84 bbl, compared to $69.04 bbl recorded in the previous year, according to its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released Tuesday (3/10).

That was sharply higher than the 2026 average of $58 bbl that the EIA predicted for Brent in the short-term outlook issued a month earlier. Oil markets are expected to surge this year due to the war in Iran, the EIA said.

“Crude oil prices have risen as petroleum shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen, and some Middle East oil production has been shut in,” said the latest STEO report, which noted that Brent had settled at around $94 bbl on March 9. In Tuesday’s trading, the front-month contract in ICE Brent hovered at $83 bbl.

The agency said its modeling assumes that the effective closure of the Hormuz – where some 21 million bpd in petroleum liquids pass – will cause oil production in the Middle East to fall further in the coming weeks. Shut-in production will, however, gradually ease as transit resumes through the strait, it added.

As such, the EIA expects a significant price moderation in Brent by 2027, forecasting the global crude benchmark to decline to $64.47 bbl.

On the U.S. front, West Texas Intermediate crude is forecast to average $73.61 bbl this year and $60.81 bbl in 2027, versus last year’s $65.40 bbl. In February’s STEO report, the EIA predicted the U.S. crude benchmark to average $53 through 2026.

The agency also forecasts retail gasoline to average $3.34 gallon this year, versus last year’s $3.10, indicating that some of the upside pressure in WTI pricing will likely pass downstream. For 2027, the EIA’s average forecast for gasoline is $3.18 gallon.

Natural gas prices will likely follow a similar trajectory, according to the EIA, which predicts $3.76 mmBtu this year versus $3.53 last year. For next year, gas is expected to reach $3.85 mmBtu.

U.S. crude oil production is expected to average at 13.6 million bpd this year, matching the 2025 record, before rising to 13.8 million bpd in 2027.

EIA: Henry Hub Spot Price Falls Nearly 13% from Feb. STEO

The Energy Information Administration lowered its U.S. natural gas price outlook after milder-than-expected temperatures in February left more gas in storage and eased market tightness, according to the agency’s latest Short Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday (3/10) .
The Henry Hub spot price averaged $3.53/MMBtu in 2025 and is now forecast to average $3.76/MMBtu in 2026, down by nearly 13% from the February STEO forecast of $4.31/MMBtu. EIA data showed that the downward revision reflects milder winter weather in February, which slowed storage withdrawals and increased expected inventories compared with last month’s outlook.

The EIA expects Henry Hub prices to average nearly $3.90/MMBtu in 2027, also about 12% lower than last month’s outlook, reflecting higher than expected production and larger inventories as supply growth outpaces demand over the next several years.
U.S. natural gas prices also faced limited upward pressure from international markets despite disruptions to global LNG trade tied to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, U.S. prices are expected to remain relatively insulated because LNG export facilities were already operating near capacity, limiting the ability to ship additional volumes abroad in the near term.

U.S. natural gas inventories are now expected to exit the withdrawal season in March near 1,840 Bcf, roughly in line with the five- year average. Storage withdrawals slowed in February as milder weather spread across much of the country following historic draws earlier in the winter tied to Winter Storm Fern and subsequent cold temperatures.

The EIA-STEO anticipates increased crude oil activity to drive higher associated natural gas production in the coming years. Marketed natural gas production is forecast to average about 118 Bcfd in 2026, up from roughly 116 Bcfd in 2025, before rising further to about 121 Bcfd in 2027, the data showed. Growth is expected to come primarily from the Haynesville, Permian, and Appalachia regions.

Higher oil prices are expected to encourage additional drilling in the Permian Basin increasing associated gas output as new pipeline capacity allows producers to bring more supply to market. The EIA said stronger oil directed drilling activity will continue supporting natural gas production growth through the forecast period.  

U.S. Crude Exports Drop for the First Time in 4 Years

U.S. crude oil exports declined in 2025 for the first time since 2021, even as domestic production hit a record, reflecting a tactical shift in how U.S. barrels were allocated rather than a structural downturn in export capacity, the Energy Information Administration reported on Tuesday (3/10).

In 2025, U.S. crude oil exports fell by 3% to 4 million bpd from the prior year, with production rising by 3% to a record 13.6 million bpd, the EIA stated. Following that downward trend, crude imports were down from 2.5 million bpd to 2.2 million bpd, in the same period.

The 2025 export decline primarily reflects record U.S. output being redirected toward domestic stock builds – especially the Strategic Petroleum Reserve – and refineries, amid shifting regional demand and stronger supply from competitors such as OPEC.

Exports to the two main regional markets, Europe and Asia, also decreased. In 2025, U.S. exports to Europe fell by 7% year-over-year. During the same period, shipments to the United Kingdom dropped by over 100,000 bpd, that’s about 35%. However, total flows to Europe remained above pre-Ukraine war levels. 

In Asia, exports to Singapore and China plunged 75% and 89%, respectively, even as India and Japan increased imports by about 90,000 bpd and 80,000 bpd. Aside from those markets, Nigeria’s imports of U.S. crude oil also rose from 40,000 bpd in 2024 to 110,000 bpd in 2025. The growth was driven by the ramp up of the 650,000 bpd Dangote refinery that began processing crude in early 2024.

The decline in U.S. crude exports in 2025 are best interpreted as a recalibration within a high export regime, rather than a reversal of the prior upward trend. With net imports still falling and exports remaining at historically high levels, the United States remains a key supplier in global crude markets, the EIA said.

Analysis: U.S. Refiner Margins At Risk Despite Oil Price Dip

Crude prices have dropped 30% on Wednesday (3/10) from the nearly $120 bbl recorded the previous day, but U.S. refining margins remain vulnerable in an oil market sharply elevated by the Iran war.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange hovered at around $85 bbl on Tuesday (3/9) from four-year highs hit the prior day. That was still nearly $20 bbl above WTI’s closing price on February 27, just before the start of U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iran.

The concern to U.S. refiners is, of course, whether they can continue maintaining positive margins at current crude prices.

Generally, if crude prices rise, refiners adjust by passing costs down the line; product prices for gasoline and diesel tend to increase to compensate and maintain margins. 

For the week ended March 6, Gulf Coast’s benchmark Light Louisiana Sweet 3-2-1 crack spread stood at $20.76 bbl, down 28% decline from the prior week.

Regional spot markets experienced a recalibration recently, with CBOB and ULSD differentials initially dipping on cycle changes before roaring back as waterborne export demand intensified.

Chicago CBOB basis surged by 8 cents as regional inventories hit multi-year lows. California and Pacific Northwest markets saw the biggest moves, with spot gasoline premiums surging to push retail averages past $5.20 in some zones.

Another immediate concern for U.S. refiners is balancing feedstock availability against their highly specialized, capital-intensive infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia and Iraq supplied U.S. refiners with roughly 520,000 bpd and 154,000 bpd, respectively, in 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

While there’s talk that the Iran war might end sooner than the 4-5-week timeline given by the U.S., supply from the Middle East is still being throttled. Only two crude or refined product tankers reportedly exited the Persian Gulf on Sunday (3/8) – versus the typical daily average of 35 – as Iran continued to blockade the Strait of Hormuz where some 21 million bpd of petroleum liquids pass.

The Hormuz blockade effectively severs these primary import channels, forcing these refiners to pivot to Western Hemisphere and domestic sources to mitigate the shortfall.

Roughly 70% of U.S. refining capacity is engineered to run most efficiently on heavier, sour crudes, which are traditionally imported. If the blockade forces a sustained reduction in these heavy imports, U.S. refiners cannot simply substitute domestic light, sweet shale oil without incurring significant efficiency losses.

Theoretically, cushion could emerge if Venezuela’s production intensified, as its output is now under White House custodianship. Venezuela’s heavy, sour crude is ideal for U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, but scaling its approximately 900,000 bpd output requires tens of billions in investment.

Furthermore, the Trump administration’s recent easing of Russian crude sanctions aims to stabilize global prices, providing the broader market with needed relief rather than directly supplying U.S. refiners.

Without adequate sour crude, feeding light, sweet crude into systems built for heavy feedstock could lead to severe bottlenecks in light-ends distillation, leaving expensive assets like cokers and hydrocrackers critically underutilized. The mismatch effectively reduces the operational throughput of a refinery, meaning a plant designed for 300,000 bpd may be constrained to significantly lower levels when forced to process a suboptimal crude slate.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.8 million bpd for the week ended February 27, with facilities operating at 89.2% of their operable capacity.

Analysis: Supply Crunch to Stay Despite Crude Spreads Ease

A prolonged supply disruption is taking shape for Middle East oil, even if the Iran war is to come to a quicker-than-thought end as U.S. President Donald Trump suggests.

Crude futures rapidly declined on Tuesday (3/10), with West Texas Intermediate crude falling to $80 bbl and North Sea Brent to the low $90s, after both reached four-year highs of nearly $120 just a day earlier.

Prompt spreads also retraced their extreme highs as the market sentiment shifted from panic to a more measured outlook on current supply and demand balances.

WTI’s prompt spread has more than halved from the intraday high of $6.07 bbl recorded early Monday (3/9) as buyers became more cautious about sustaining those elevated price levels.

The spread between the first and second month delivered Brent, which rocketed to an intraday high of $9.38 bbl in the previous session, has dropped to around $4. The compression reflects a cooling in the aggressive buying behavior that previously dominated the market’s front-end structure following the initial reports of supply issues.

The pullback signaled some optimism in the market that the intense, near-term tightness stemming from the initial cessation of global oil flows could ease if trade routes stabilize.

Yet, there was no sign yet of an imminent all-clear on the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East’s busiest shipping lane for petroleum, with Iranian national security chief Ali Larijani’s warning there will be no safe passage on the waterway until U.S.-Israel attacks against Iran ceased.

This indicates that the decline in oil prices is driven by speculative cooling and political headlines rather than any real-time improvements to the situation on the strait.

Most oil exports from the Middle East are loaded onto tankers in the Persian Gulf before navigating their way through the strait. The halt of tanker traffic on the chokepoint led to quickly filling storage tanks, forcing producers to halt operations.

Iraq, where northern oilfields were shut down in the first days of the war, has halted more than two thirds of production at its southern fields. Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also had to throttle output amid swelling inventories and attacks near energy infrastructure. The longer the strait remains untraversable, the longer wells will stay idle, which could prolong the time needed to restart production.

News of Group 7 nations discussing releasing crude oil from their strategic reserves in coordination with the International Energy Agency pumped the brakes on soaring time spreads. Finance ministers from the developed countries’ club met Monday to discuss a potential release of 300 million to 400 million bbl from their 1.2 billion bbl collective emergency reserves, saying necessary measures will be made according to market requirements.

Despite the pullback, the crude market’s backwardation remains historically steep, with WTI’s prompt spread near $2.50 bbl and Brent’s around $4 bbl.

EIA: U.S. Diesel Prices Continue to Rise, Up 96.2cts on Week

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Tuesday (3/10) that retail diesel prices rose for a fifth consecutive week, climbing 96.2cts during the week ended March 9 to average $4.859 gallon, while increasing $1.277 on the year.

The weekly increase was the largest since the week ended June 23, 2025, when prices jumped 20.4cts. Diesel prices trended higher for a fifth consecutive week, with increases recorded across all major regions.

East Coast diesel prices rose by 97.7cts to $4.901 gallon. For the year, this PADD 1 region showed a $1.202 increase.

New England diesel prices climbed by 65.6cts to $4.970 gallon while climbing 93.9cts on the year.

In the latest week, the biggest diesel weekly appreciation was in the Lower Atlantic. This PADD 1C region had a $1.072 rise on the week and a $1.293 surge on the year to average at $4.880 gallon.

Diesel prices in the Central Atlantic witnessed a 81.8cts rise on the week to average at $4.940 gallon. For the year, the PADD 1B region saw a $1.033 climb.

In the Gulf Coast region, diesel averaged $4.627 gallon, with the PADD 3 region up $1.029 on the week and $1.343 on the year.

In the Midwest, or PADD 2 region, gasoline perked up by 91.3cts on the week and $1.304 on the year to average at $4.801 gallon.

In the Rocky Mountain area, diesel prices rose 66.0cts on the week and 98.3cts on the year to average at $4.397 gallon.

West Coast diesel saw a $1.022 increase on the week to average at $5.556 gallon. For the year, the PADD 5 witnessed a surge of $1.306.

West Coast less California diesel climbed 95.0cts on a weekly basis to $5.088 gallon, while rising $1.320 on the year.

California diesel itself rose $1.106 on the week and $1.289 on the year to average at $6.096 gallon.

EIA: U.S. Gasoline Climbs 48.7cts on Week

The national average for retail regular gasoline increased in the week ended March 9, with broad gains across major regions, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed Tuesday (3/10).

The U.S. average for regular gasoline surged by 48.7cts to $3.502 gallon last week, while standing 43.3cts higher compared to the same week last year, the EIA’s weekly update on fuel pricing showed.

East Coast (PADD 1) gasoline increased by 48.1cts to $3.363 gallon in the week ended March 9, while standing 41.8cts higher than the same period last year.

Within the East Coast, New England (PADD 1A) increased by 47.4cts to $3.352 gallon week-over-week, while standing 39.1cts above the same week of 2025.

Central Atlantic (PADD 1B) gasoline prices increased by 45.2cts on a weekly basis to reach $3.419 gallon last week, while standing 34.8cts higher than the same week of last year.

Lower Atlantic (PADD 1C) gasoline prices climbed by 50.0cts to $3.330 gallon in the profiled week, while standing 46.7cts higher than year-ago levels.

Midwest (PADD 2) prices climbed by 48.2cts to $3.276 gallon last week, while standing 37.7cts higher compared to the same period of previous year. Prices for the same product at the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) increased 46.5cts to $3.109 gallon and stood 42.9cts above the previous year.

Rocky Mountain (PADD 4) gasoline increased by 50.0cts to $3.258 gallon, while standing 29.8cts higher year-over-year.

West Coast (PADD 5) gasoline prices rose by 53.0cts on the week and 59.1cts on the year to $4.690 gallon. Gasoline prices at West Coast less California climbed 42.4cts on a weekly basis and 53.5cts for the year to $4.215 gallon.

U.S. Rack Gasoline Prices Extend Gains; ULSD Pulls Back

Wholesale rack prices for gasoline across the United States moved modestly higher Tuesday (3/10) while diesel prices retreated from recent highs as crude futures pulled back after briefly trading above $100 barrel earlier this week.

Conventional unleaded gasoline rack prices averaged $2.8285 gallon, edging up 0.04cts from Monday’s $2.8281 gallon, according to DTN data. The national average remains sharply higher compared with last week after gasoline racks rallied more than 40cts over the past several trading sessions.

Nationwide ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) rack prices averaged $3.6420 gallon, declining 8.35cts from Monday’s $3.7255 gallon, reversing part of last week’s sharp advance that pushed diesel racks more than $1 gallon higher from early March levels.

On gasoline racks, PADD 1 posted the largest increase, rising 11.86cts to $2.5437 gallon, followed by PADD 3, up 9.41cts to $2.4707 gallon. PADD 5 climbed 9.29cts to $3.5365 gallon, while PADD 4 increased 8.32cts to $2.5858 gallon. PADD 2 saw the smallest rise, gaining 4.78cts to $2.3833 gallon, the same data showed.

Compared with the national average of $2.8285 gallon, all PADDs traded at a discount except PADD 5, which stood at a 70.80cts premium to the U.S. benchmark. The deepest discount was seen in PADD 2 at 44.52cts below the national average, followed by PADD 3 at 35.78cts, PADD 1 at 28.48cts, and PADD 4 at 24.27cts below the benchmark.

ULSD racks declined across most PADDs with the exception of PADD 4, where prices increased 4.34cts to $3.4881 gallon. The largest decline occurred in PADD 1, where ULSD dropped 12.45cts to $3.7688 gallon. PADD 3 fell 10.29cts to $3.5786 gallon, followed by PADD 2, down 6.06cts to $3.4402 gallon, while PADD 5 edged lower 2.57cts to $4.1662 gallon.

Relative to the national ULSD rack average of $3.6420 gallon, PADD 5 held the strongest premium at 52.42cts, followed by PADD 1 at 12.68cts above the U.S. benchmark. PADD 4 traded slightly above the national average at 4.61cts premium, while PADD 3 and PADD 2 stood 6.34cts and 20.18cts below the national average, respectively.

In the futures market, the front month NYMEX ULSD contract for April delivery traded at $3.5397 gallon, up 4.59cts, while NYMEX RBOB gasoline for April fell 9.68cts to $2.7116 gallon. Crude benchmarks also retreated, with WTI April crude trading at $88.78 barrel, down $5.99, pulling back from levels above $100 barrel reached earlier yesterday.

Shell Sells Jiffy Lube to Monomoy Capital for $1.3B

Shell announced Tuesday (3/10) that it has agreed to sell Jiffy Lube International and its subsidiary, Premium Velocity Auto, to private equity firm Monomoy Capital Partners for $1.3 billion.

The deal transfers the Jiffy Lube brand and its network of more than 2,000 franchised and company-owned service centers to Monomoy. Premium Velocity Auto, the second-largest Jiffy Lube franchisee with over 360 locations across 20 states, is also included in the transaction.

Shell will retain its core Pennzoil, Quaker State, and Rotella lubricants brands, along with U.S. and Canadian manufacturing, marketing, and distribution operations. As part of the agreement, Shell has secured a long-term lubricants supply deal with Monomoy, preserving a commercial link between the two companies.

The divestment allows the company to “monetize an asset that is not central to Shell’s lubricants portfolio in the US and reinvest in opportunities that generate higher returns,” Machteld de Haan, President of Downstream, Renewables and Energy Solutions at Shell, said. The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2026, pending regulatory approval.