MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for February 13th:

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— CFTC: Speculators Cut Net Longs in NYMEX WTI

— January U.S. CPI Slows to 2.4% on Year, Energy Index Dips

— Analysis: 2026 Fuel Margins to Grow Despite Low Oil Prices

— EIA: US Natural Gas Output to Hit Record Highs Through 2027

— Wright: More Reforms Needed for $100B Venezuela Oil Plan

— January U.S. CPI Slows to 2.4% on Year, Energy Index Dips

NEWS:

CFTC: Speculators Cut Net Longs in NYMEX WTI

Speculators added to bearish bets in NYMEX crude oil and distillates during the week to February 10, while turning more bullish on gasoline and natural gas, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed Friday (2/13).

In NYMEX WTI crude futures, noncommercial long positions rose by 5,213 contracts to 320,742, the CFTC said in its weekly Commitment of Traders report. But short positions grew by a wider margin of 11,964 contracts to 202,928.

The difference between the two narrowed the noncommercial net longs by 6,751 contracts to 117,814, eroding the bullish position in WTI.

WTI’s open interest tumbled by 20776 to 2070538, underscoring the tumble in net longs.

In NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures, noncommercial long positions rose by 2,838 contracts to 119,095, but short positions tumbled by a far greater 10,687 contracts to 29,139. As a result, the noncommercial net long position surged by 13,525 contracts to 89,956 as short-covering added to gasoline’s bullish tone.

Open interest in gasoline, meanwhile, fell by 6,109 contracts to 463,056.

In NYMEX ULSD futures, noncommercial long positions rose by a mere 90 contracts to 62,669 while short positions jumped by 5,737 contracts to 43,217. The changes slashed the noncommercial net long position in ULSD by 5,827 contracts to 19,452.

Open interest in ULSD plummeted by 6,850 contracts to 360,147 during the reporting week.

In NYMEX natural gas futures, noncommercial long positions dropped by 6,851 contracts to 208,248, but short positions fell by a wider 7,296 contracts to 380,113. The moves reduced the noncommercial net short position in natural gas by 445 contracts to 171,865. Open interest tumbled by 32,575 contracts to 1,623,408.

Baker Hughes: North America Rig Count Down by 6 on Week

North American energy drilling activity fell by six rigs this week, after the prior week’s one-rig climb, according to Baker Hughes’ weekly rig count report released Friday (2/13).

The report showed the regional rig count at 773 in the current week, versus 779 the week prior. Year-over-year, rigs for Canada and the U.S. combined were down 60 from the 833 actively deployed in the same week of 2025.

The weekly change was driven entirely by Canada, where the rig count fell from 228 to 222.  Of the six rigs Canada lost, four were in gas and two were in oil.

The U.S. rig count was unchanged at 55, with a three-rig decline in oil squared off by a three-rig gain in gas.

By location, land-based rigs in the U.S. fell by one week-over-week to 531. Offshore rigs advanced by one to 17. Inland water rigs were unchanged for a second week in a row at three.

By trajectory, horizontal rigs in the U.S. eased by two to 481 while directional rigs climbed by two to 57. Vertical rigs were unchanged at 13. Year-over-year, the U.S. rig count was lower by 37 from the 588 actively deployed a year ago.

Analysis: 2026 Fuel Margins to Grow Despite Low Oil Prices

U.S. refining margins rose to the highest in years in the fall of 2025 and they remain relatively high propelling refiners to delay non-essential maintenance and maximize operations.

Margins for fuel producers and sellers have improved markedly from a year earlier but are still lagging 2023 averages. Fuel wholesale and retail margins are forecast to continue to grow this year and next – despite softening crude prices.

At the start of 2025, crack spreads broke their multi-year long downward trend, rising rapidly and spiking at record highs in November, spearheaded by a rally in European diesel prices. Using a simplified proxy formula – the wholesale cost of two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of diesel, minus the cost of three barrels of crude – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data show that the average barrel of crude purchased by U.S. refiners yielded some $2.22 bbl, or 9%, more in 2025 than a year earlier, with the difference peaking at $32.78 bbl in November.

This came as input costs for refiners dropped much more precipitously than fuel prices. EIA data show the average crude acquisition cost for U.S. refiners in 2025 decreased more than 13% year-on-year, while average wholesale gasoline and diesel prices were down 9% and 5%, respectively.

While gasoline wholesale margins improved only marginally, up 3% year-on-year to $0.57 gallon, diesel wholesale margins shot up 21% from 2024, surpassing the $1.00 gallon mark in November for the first time in two years. Diesel wholesale margins were supported by global crude oversupply leading to lower input prices, low diesel inventories and fears of shortage due to the European Union ban proposal, which fueled a rally in diesel futures.

Retail margins – the difference between the total retail price for the fuel and its wholesale price – also improved, albeit at a slower pace. Last year, average retail margins for gasoline were up 2.1% year-on-year after rising 6% in 2024, while diesel retail margins were up just 1.1%, after dropping 4.3% the year before.

This trend is likely to continue at an even faster pace this year as the divergence between crude and fuel prices is likely to continue. The world is facing a crude oil glut as supply additions continue to outpace demand growth. Estimates pin the average oversupply this year between 1.5 and 3.7 million bpd, pressuring crude prices.

The drop in fuel prices, however, will likely be much less pronounced as global refining capacity additions slow down, and both the United States and Europe are set to lose refining capacity.

The EIA, in its February Short-Term Energy outlook, forecast that wholesale fuel prices will drop by as much 7%, contrasting with the 16% decline in crude prices. This translates to a 22% rise in wholesale gasoline margins and a 10% increase in diesel margins for refiners. Gasoline and diesel retail margins are also expected to continue growing, by 2.1% and 1.6% year-on-year, respectively.

While the drop in U.S. refining capacity is set in stone, with some closures likely leading to higher gasoline prices in certain regions of the country, crude supply risks have only grown so far this year, making the prognosticated steep decline in oil prices less certain.

Crude prices rocketed in January amid mounting tensions between the U.S. and Iran, and a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine seems unlikely to arrive any time soon. A war with Iran carries the potential to not only jeopardize the 3.2 million bpd of oil supply from the country. The risk of neighboring countries, some of the largest oil producers in the world, being dragged into an armed conflict aside, Iran could temporarily blockade the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil supply transits daily.

Additionally, the return of Venezuelan crude oil flows to the U.S. may push wholesale margins even higher, as it will result in lower prices for heavy sour crude grades, a staple feedstock for U.S. refineries. 

EIA: US Natural Gas Output to Hit Record Highs Through 2027

U.S. natural gas production is expected to hit record highs this year and next, driven by higher prices and growing output from three major shale regions, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast in a report issued Friday (2/13).

Gas output is projected to rise 2% this year to average 120.8 billion cubic feet per day, before rising to 122.3 Bcfd in 2027, the EIA said.

Nearly 70% of the forecast growth over the next two years is expected to come from the Appalachia, Haynesville, and Permian regions.

Production gains are expected to be led by the Haynesville shale in eastern Texas and Louisiana, where higher natural gas prices are keeping drilling activity economical despite rising development costs. Haynesville output itself is expected to grow by 1.2 Bcfd this year and by another 1.6 Bcfd in 2027.

The Permian Basin is also expected to contribute meaningfully to production growth, adding an estimated 1.4 Bcfd in 2026 and 0.6 Bcf/d in 2027.

Gas prices, meanwhile, forecast to rise from $3.52 per million British thermal units in 2025 to $4.31 MMBtu in 2026 and $4.38 MMBtu in 2027.

Wright: More Reforms Needed for $100B Venezuela Oil Plan

The Trump administration seeks to further liberalize Venezuela’s oil sector, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Friday (2/13) as the U.S. pivots from industry oversight to full-scale privatization and auctioning of the country’s untapped reserves.

During a three-day visit to Caracas, Wright discussed a $100-billion reconstruction plan that would move beyond the current maintenance-phase of Venezuelan oil adopted by the White House to active scouting of locations for new drilling operations. That would be in line with U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent remarks that U.S. oil companies were “scouting it out and picking their locations” in Venezuela to bring back wealth for both nations.

The U.S. Treasury has also issued two licenses that would allow global companies to negotiate contracts on investments in new energy operations in Venezuela, essentially greenlighting the groundwork for future block auctions.

Venezuela’s recent passing of laws to allow private companies to control production and pricing of oil was “a meaningful step in the right direction” after years of monopoly held by the state-owned PDVSA, Wright noted. The new regulations establish independent arbitration for contract disputes, a move intended to provide legal security for international firms eyeing a stake in a nation with the world’s largest proven crude reserves.

Yet to spur the kind of large investments needed to upscale the industry, Venezuela needs to undertake more reforms and provide clarity on the changes made, Wright said.

On the White House’s part, he said it was moving “as fast as it can” in assisting Chevron, the U.S. driller on the ground in Venezuela, to expand its production license.

The Trump administration took charge of Venezuela’s oil industry in January after capturing the country’s leader Nicolas Maduro and installing his number two Delcy Rodriguez as interim president.

It has since begun lifting sanctions on the country to facilitate the return of foreign oil operators. OPEC, in its monthly report issued Tuesday (2/11), estimated that Venezuela produced 830,000 bpd in January, down 87,000 from December.

January U.S. CPI Slows to 2.4% on Year, Energy Index Dips

U.S. headline inflation cooled in January as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 2.4% year-on-year, retreating from December’s print of 2.7% and economists’ forecasts of 2.5%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday (2/13).

Core inflation, as measured by the CPI’s all-items less food and energy index, matched expectations by expanding 2.5% year-on-year in January versus a prior 2.6%.

The 2.4% annual expansion in headline CPI represents the smallest yearly increase since May 2025, though price growth remains above the Federal Reserve’s long-term 2% target. The central bank maintained interest rates in a 3.5%-3.75% range at a policy decision on January 28, after three rate cuts in the previous year.

The January CPI data showed the energy index sliding 1.5% over the month, which partially offset gains in the food and shelter categories. For the 12 months ending in January, the energy index decreased 0.1%.

The food index, in comparison, rose 0.2% in January and 2.9% for the year.  The shelter index climbed 0.2% in January and 3.0% year-on-year.

The sub-indexes for airline fares, personal care, recreation, medical care and communication registered monthly gains too. Conversely, the indexes for used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, and motor vehicle insurance recorded decreases during the first month of the year.

In response to the data, the August NYMEX WTI futures contract eased losses to trade $0.11 lower at $62.73 bbl. The U.S. dollar index dropped by 0.022 points to 96.815 against a basket of foreign currencies.