MARKETWIRE ALERTS

MARKETWIRE ALERTS 

MarketWire Afternoon News for February 9th:

Updated at 5:00 PM ET 

HEADLINES:

— SF CARBOB Regular Basis Surges over 15cts after trade

— Whiting Refinery: Work Stoppage Looms as Talks Drag

— Vitol: Jet Fuel Demand to Climb by 2.6M bpd by 2040

— Vitol: Global Gasoline Demand to Peak by 2030s From EV Use

— Verde Clean Fuels Halts Permian Basin Gas-to-Gasoline Plan

— Valero reports 5-day Emission Event at McKee, TX refinery

— EIA: Hybrids Gain Traction, Eroding U.S. Fossil Fuel Demand

NEWS:

SF CARBOB Regular Basis Surges over 15cts after trade

San Francisco gasoline basis spiked Monday (2/9) after a trade was confirmed near the end of the trading session.
San Francisco CARBOB regular increased by 17cts to a 70cts premium to March NYMEX RBOB futures on the day, setting a 10ct spread against the CARBOB premium in the same market. CARB reformulated gasoline premium in San Francisco also increased by 17cts to be assessed at a 95cts premium to March futures. 

Inventories in the U.S. West Coast totaled 30 million bbl in the week ending January 30, 500,000 bbl lower than the prior week and extending a four-week draw from 31.6 million bbl in early January, Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday.

Whiting Refinery: Work Stoppage Looms as Talks Drag

BP’s 435,000 bpd Whiting, Indiana refinery faces the risk of work stoppage at any time as contract negotiations between the company and United Steelworkers remain unresolved, statements released on Friday (2/6) by the oil major and union indicate.

BP says it remains focused on reaching a fair and equitable agreement with the union, disputing claims that talks have stalled. The company added that it has held 42 documented bargaining sessions since January 5, also meeting in informal settings to discuss proposals from both sides.

United Steelworkers Local 7-1, the division of the union representing the workers at Whiting, claimed it has been told by BP that the company was not obliged to follow the 2026 National Oil Bargaining Program. BP has presented a counterproposal that included base wage cuts across all job classifications, said the union, which has advised its members to prepare for work stoppage if no tentative agreement is reached.

The Whiting refinery is the largest in the Midwest and supplies gasoline, diesel and jet fuel into the Chicago and Group 3 markets.

Any disruption at the plant could have implications for refined product supplies across the Midwest. Prolonged work stoppage, especially, could tighten regional supply balances and increase reliance on pipeline transfers and shipments from the Gulf Coast.

Vitol: Jet Fuel Demand to Climb by 2.6M bpd by 2040

Global jet fuel demand is expected to climb steadily through 2040 as rising incomes and a doubling of passenger numbers drive sector expansion, Vitol said in its long-term outlook released on Monday (2/9).

Key assumptions:

• Absolute jet fuel demand is projected to increase by approximately 2.6 million bpd by 2040, supported by the continued growth of international travel.
• Jet fuel will represent 9% of the total refined product barrel by the end of the forecast period, rising from its current 7% share.
• SAF represents the only near-term potential to partially replace traditional petroleum-based fuels, while hydrogen and electric planes remain decades away from commercial viability.
• SAF adoption is currently limited by constrained supply and high costs, which remain roughly three times that of standard petroleum-derived jet fuel.
• Global supply of SAF is unlikely to exceed 15% of total jet demand by 2040 due to significant limitations in feedstock and conversion capacity.
• Aggressive SAF mandates in Europe and North America will likely raise travel costs, potentially impacting aviation activity in price-sensitive emerging economies.
• For SAF to scale, the industry must repurpose retired refinery infrastructure and significantly increase the production of crops, plants and waste oil feedstocks.
• In the absence of disruptive technology, jet fuel and LPG remain the primary drivers of growth for the global oil barrel through the next decade.

Vitol: Global Gasoline Demand to Peak by 2030s From EV Use

Global gasoline demand will likely peak by the early 2030s as electrification and efficiency improvements cap overall fuel use across the world’s major markets, oil trader Vitol said in an updated of its long-term global outlook released on onday (2/9).

Key assumptions:

• Net consumption is projected to drop by 1.8 million bpd by 2040, with China facing a decline of more than 50% from its current peak levels.
• While the United States remains the largest market, its demand should fall by 0.8 million bpd as electric vehicle adoption accelerates significantly after 2035.
• The global fleet of electric vehicles (EV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) will reach approximately 690 million units by 2040, representing roughly one-third of the two billion vehicles on the road.
• China’s domestic market has already reached an approximate 50% of projected EV/PHEV sales, underscoring its rapidly declining demand for gasoline.
• European demand for gasoline might grow through the early 2030s as drivers switch from diesel-powered cars back to traditional gasoline engines.
• Road diesel demand is expected to stagnate before entering a sharper decline phase that will gather momentum after the middle of the next decade.

• Global diesel consumption should fall to 19.6 million bpd by 2040, driven largely by the surprising growth of electric heavy commercial vehicles in China.
• Heavy trucks currently represent 60% of road diesel use, making their transition to battery-swapping technology a critical factor in the structural decline of middle distillates.
• With global car fleet expanding to 2 billion units, liquid fuels will remain material as internal combustion engines comprise two-thirds of the total.

Verde Clean Fuels Halts Permian Basin Gas-to-Gasoline Plan

Verde Clean Fuels has halted development of its Permian Basin natural gas-to-gasoline facility, driven by changing market conditions as a result of a surge of regional gas.

The company partnered with Diamondback Energy subsidiary Cottonmouth Ventures in February 2024 to develop a natural gas-to gasoline plant in the Permian using Verde’s proprietary STG+ technology and associated natural gas from. After completing engineering studies in December 2025, Verde determined current conditions no longer favor the project.

“We are thankful to Diamondback for their support of the Permian Basin project. The learnings from the work that was completed, in particular from the FEED study, will continue to be useful as we explore other opportunities to deploy our technology,” said Ernest Miller, CEO of Verde.

Cottonmouth remains Verde’s second-largest shareholder, Miller stated.

Valero reports 5-day Emission Event at McKee, TX refinery

Valero reported a five-day emission event with 100% opacity at the FCCU stack vent unit of its 200,000 bpd McKee, Texas, refinery, according to a filing with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality.

The emission event, which started on Friday (2/6) at 11:30 a.m. and is scheduled to end on Tuesday (2/10) at 11:30 a.m., occurred during maintenance work at McKee Complex 1, the filing showed.

“Refinery personnel will follow established procedures to carry out a controlled and managed response to minimize emissions,” the filing stated.

“The refinery has not received any complaints from neighbors and, based on its knowledge and understanding of the event, has not caused or contributed to a condition of air pollution.”

The refinery produces gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and asphalt.

EIA: Hybrids Gain Traction, Eroding U.S. Fossil Fuel Demand

U.S. sales of hybrid cars are eating into the electric vehicle (EV) market as consumers prioritize fuel choice, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in an analysis published Monday (2/9).

Hybrids captured 22% of the light-duty vehicle market in 2025 as sales of battery-powered cars alone more than halved from 12% in September to below 6% between October and December after the expiry of federal tax credits.

Consumers’ fuel choice is significant as the EIA noted in August that the 2024 record of 9.0 billion miles per day in vehicle miles traveled did not translate to a pickup in gasoline demand – which remained flat from 2023 levels. The decoupling of driving distance from fuel use is a direct result of consumers choosing hybrid and electric models to avoid being tied to a single fuel type.

Consumption of gasoline aside, demand for diesel also fell in 2024, to 3.8 million bpd from 3.92 million a year earlier, EIA data showed.

In Monday’s analysis, the agency underscored another development – since battery-powered vehicles and plug-in hybrids consume electricity from isolated power sources, such as independent charging stations at highway stops, they can show lower power consumption at the grid level.

Hybrids, particularly, “do not have plugs, so they don’t directly affect grid-delivered electricity demand”, the EIA note.