Increasing Showers and Storms
Showers and Storms will move into the area late, primarily for northern areas.
GENERAL OVERVIEW: A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, LED BY A MAJOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING THREAT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SURROUNDING AREAS ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. A BROAD AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REMAIN SLOW TO MOVE. THE WEST WILL SEE ACTIVE WEATHER AS WELL, WITH MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EAST:
The most significant weather threat across the East is focused on today through Saturday, as a potent low pressure system near the Ohio Valley is generating a large area of rain and thunderstorms from the Midwest southward through the Tennessee Valley and into the Southeast. Severe thunderstorms are possible today across a broad swath encompassing Kentucky, Tennessee, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Embedded within this threat is a particularly dangerous heavy rain and flash flooding risk covering much of Kentucky, Tennessee, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, and neighboring states — an area where rainfall could be excessive and lead to significant flooding impacts. Rain and thunderstorms will be widespread across the entire Southeast, Gulf Coast states, and up through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as well, with the heaviest activity focused on the Ohio and Tennessee Valley corridor.
Into Saturday, the heavy rain and flash flooding threat shifts slightly but remains focused across portions of the Tennessee Valley, including Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, and adjacent areas. Rain and thunderstorms will continue across a broad area from the Gulf Coast northward through the Southeast, Ohio Valley, and into the Northeast. A low pressure system will linger near the Tennessee Valley region, keeping the threat of heavy rainfall elevated. By Sunday evening, a cold front will be pushing into the region from the northwest, helping to organize and push precipitation eastward. Rain and thunderstorms will continue across the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and portions of the Northeast through Monday and into Tuesday, with the activity gradually becoming more confined to the coastal Southeast and Mid-Atlantic as the front progresses eastward.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal across most of the East. The Northeast and portions of the Mid-Atlantic will see readings running a few degrees above normal on Day 1, while much of the Southeast and Ohio Valley remain near normal.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures will become more widespread across the Great Lakes and Northeast, with readings running notably above normal particularly around the Great Lakes region. Portions of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley may see slightly below-normal temperatures on Days 4 and 5, while the Northeast and Great Lakes trend warmer.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures will persist across the Northeast and Great Lakes region, with the anomalies gradually moderating. Much of the Southeast will trend back toward near-normal conditions by the end of the period.
CENTRAL:
The Central region will also be active, particularly across the southern and central Plains and into the Mississippi Valley. On Friday, a low pressure system over Kansas and the central Plains will be the focus for rain and thunderstorms extending from the central Plains southward through Oklahoma and into Texas. Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Kansas and Missouri. Rain and thunderstorm coverage will be broad across the southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley.
By Saturday, the storm system will shift eastward, and a new area of low pressure will develop across the southern Plains. Rain and thunderstorms will continue across portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and the central Plains, with a wintry mix possible in the higher terrain of New Mexico. Into Sunday and Monday, a cold front will sweep through the northern Plains and push southward, with rain and thunderstorms continuing across the southern Plains and western Gulf Coast. By Tuesday, multiple low pressure systems will be present across the central and southern Plains, maintaining a threat for rain and thunderstorms from the central Plains southward through Texas and into the western Gulf Coast region.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: A notable cold anomaly will be present across portions of Colorado and Kansas on Days 1 and 2, with temperatures running several degrees below normal. The remainder of the Central region will be near normal.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures will build across the northern Plains and into the upper Midwest, with readings running well above normal across the Dakotas and Minnesota. Slightly below-normal temperatures will linger across Oklahoma and portions of the southern Plains through Day 5, before moderating by Day 6.
-Days 7-10: Below-normal temperatures will persist across portions of Texas and the southern Plains through Days 7 and 8, while the northern Plains and upper Midwest remain above normal. Conditions will trend back toward near normal across much of the Central region by Days 9 and 10.
WEST:
The West will see an active pattern driven by multiple low pressure systems. On Friday, low pressure systems are present across the Pacific Northwest, the Great Basin, and the Desert Southwest, with rain and thunderstorms affecting portions of the Pacific Coast, the Cascades, and the Southwest. A cold front will be approaching the Pacific Northwest from the north. Rain and thunderstorm activity will be scattered across the Intermountain West and into the Southwest.
Into Saturday and Sunday, the low pressure systems will continue to bring rain and thunderstorms to the Southwest, including Arizona and New Mexico, as well as portions of the Great Basin and the Pacific Coast. By Monday and Tuesday, low pressure will persist across the Great Basin and Southwest, maintaining a threat for rain and thunderstorms across those areas. The Pacific Northwest will see continued frontal activity with rain possible along the coast and in the mountains.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the West will be generally above normal, particularly across the Pacific Northwest, the Great Basin, and portions of the Southwest. Anomalies will be in the range of a few degrees above normal across much of the region, with the most notable warmth across the northern Rockies and Great Basin by Day 3.
-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures will continue to be widespread across the West, with the most pronounced warmth across the northern Rockies, Idaho, and Montana, where anomalies will be notably above normal. The remainder of the West will see near to slightly above-normal temperatures.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures will persist across portions of the West, particularly along the Pacific Coast and in the Southwest, though anomalies will gradually moderate. Much of the interior West will trend back toward near-normal conditions by the end of the period.
TROPICAL:
No tropical cyclone activity is expected across the Atlantic basin during the next seven days. In the eastern Pacific, two disturbances are being monitored. One disturbance is located well to the south of Hawaii, near 10 degrees north latitude and around 150 degrees west longitude, and has a 40 to 60 percent chance of development over the next seven days. A second disturbance is located farther to the east, near 10 degrees north latitude and around 140 degrees west longitude, with a lower chance of development. Additionally, a separate disturbance is being monitored in the eastern Pacific closer to the Mexican coast, roughly between 10 and 20 degrees north latitude and near 115 degrees west longitude, where development chances are greater than 60 percent over the next seven days.