IEA: Oil Demand to Peak by 2030 Under Stated Policies

SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) – Global oil demand is on track to peak around 2030, but only if governments deliver fully on their stated climate and energy targets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported in its latest World Energy Outlook 2025 published Wednesday (11/12) morning.

The IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which accounts for current government policies and announced ambitions, projects global oil demand will reach a high of approximately 102 million bpd near the end of the decade before entering a gradual decline.

This forecast underpins a long-term structural shift in the energy landscape, evidenced by oil’s share of total global energy demand falling below 30% in 2024 for the first time in five decades.

However, the outlook changes sharply under the more conservative Current Policies Scenario (CPS), which considers only laws already enacted. Under this trajectory, global oil demand continues to rise, reaching 113 million bpd by 2050, with no peak occurring before mid-century.

The downward pressure on road transport oil consumption from electric vehicle uptake is projected to be partially offset by other sectors. The agency notes that demand for oil in non-road sectors, specifically petrochemicals and aviation, is forecast to continue increasing through 2050, even in the STEPS.

Oil markets appear well-supplied in the near term, the IEA projects largely due to a surge in output from a quintet of producers in the Americas — the U.S., Canada, Guyana, Brazil, and Argentina. This current supply surplus coexists with geopolitical fragility and subdued oil prices.

Looking forward, the IEA stresses that underlying production declines from existing fields mean the current supply overhang will dissipate relatively quickly in the CPS.

To keep markets balanced under this scenario, some 25 million bpd of new oil supply projects are needed by 2035, a requirement that would necessitate a rise in oil prices to incentivize the necessary upstream investment.

Furthermore, energy market dynamics are increasingly being shaped by a group of emerging economies, including India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa, who are collectively taking up the baton of energy demand growth from China.