IEA Anticipates Global EV Sales to Exceed 50% by 2035

SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) – Global electric vehicle sales are projected to exceed 50% of the total automobile market over the next decade, displacing 10 million bpd of oil, the International Energy Agency said in its World Energy Outlook 2025 released Wednesday (11/12).

Under the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the global electric vehicle (EV) sales share is projected to rise from over 20% today to over 50% by 2035. This trajectory would increase the global electric vehicle stock — excluding two/three-wheelers — from under 45 million recorded in 2023 to 525 million by 2035.

This increase will be driven by manufacturing competition and policy support in key markets including China, Europe, and the U.S. The projected fleet of over 840 million electric vehicles is expected to displace 10 million bpd of oil by 2035, primarily in Asia and Europe, according to the agency.

However, the IEA highlights two structural challenges requiring action to sustain the transition. First is the supply chain for critical minerals; the electrification process requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car. Supply from existing mines and projects under construction is estimated to meet only half of the projected lithium and cobalt requirements by 2030.

Second is electricity grid congestion. Proactive grid expansion and regulatory reforms are required to accommodate increased electricity demand from EVs and charge point deployment, particularly for heavy-duty vehicles.