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Precipitation Impact Commentary

Fronts Moving Through This Week

In a change to the weather pattern, warmer air will spread through more of the country this week. A couple of fronts will move through as well and one mid- to late-week will produce more widespread rain and snow.

In the Midwest, a clipper brought one last band of moderate to heavy snow across the region on Saturday. Warmer air will flood the region this week and cause some snowmelt, exposing more areas and allowing moisture to penetrate into the soil column. A front will move through on Thursday and is forecast to bring through widespread rain, followed by some backside snow across the Great Lakes. A weaker system will do something similar over the weekend, but with less precipitation.

In the Northern Plains, a band of snow was heavy in Montana late last week, which was much lighter as it moved across South Dakota. The region will be in the storm track this week, but precipitation will be hard to come by. Warmer temperatures may even bring some rain through much of the region on Wednesday.

In the Central and Southern Plains, it was largely dry over the weekend. A front will move through on Wednesday into Thursday, but is not expected to produce much precipitation either. The same is forecast with another this weekend. Increasing temperatures and a lack of rainfall this week should decrease soil moisture for much of the region and we could see drought expanding on the drought monitor this week.

In the Delta, a front moved through with some patchy showers across the south on Saturday, but most areas stayed dry. Moisture moving north from the Gulf could produce some showers this week, especially with a front that moves through on Thursday, though amounts do not look very heavy. Another front moving through this weekend may do something similar. Dryness continues to be an issue this winter and we may see drought expanding on this week’s drought monitor.

In the Southeast, a few showers moved through this weekend, but most areas stayed dry. A front that moves through Thursday night and Friday could produce widespread rain, but not all areas are likely to see good rainfall amounts. Those across the north in Tennessee and the Carolinas are more likely to see better amounts, continuing to keep drought down. Drought areas across the south may build, though.

In the Western U.S., the storm track across the north brought some more precipitation over the weekend but will really increase this week. Several bursts of heavy precipitation are forecast across Washington, Oregon, and Idaho this week, which will build snowpack in the mountains and reduce drought in the valleys. Southern areas are expected to remain dry, which is unfortunate for the drought areas down there. We could see some expansion on this week’s drought monitor.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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