EIA: STEO Sees Brent $58 bbl, WTI $53 bbl in 2026

SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) – Global oil prices are projected to decline through 2027 as production continues to outpace demand, leading to significant builds in global crude inventories, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

According to the report, Brent crude is forecast to average $58 bbl in 2026 and $53 bbl in 2027. These projections represent a sharp drop from the 2025 average of $69 bbl, as supply growth from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ sources remains robust.

U.S. crude prices follow a similar trajectory, with WTI forecast to average $53 bbl this year and $49 bbl in 2027 versus last year’s $65 bbl.

The EIA expects global liquid fuels production to increase by 1.6 million bpd this year to 106.3 million bpd. World liquids output for 2027 is projected at 108.8 million bpd.

“Despite near-term tightness from disruptions, we assess that strong global oil production growth will continue to outpace oil consumption,” the agency said.

Domestic output this year is expected to remain unchanged from the 2025 record of 13.6 million bpd, before declining 300,000 bpd next year.

Retail gasoline prices are also expected to soften, with a forecast average of $2.91 gallon in 2026, down 19cts from last year. For next year, the average for gasoline is forecast at $2.93 gallon.