EIA Sees Gas Prices Down 6% in 2026, Up 1% in 2027

SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) – U.S. retail gasoline prices are forecast to decline by 6% this year before increasing by 1% in 2027, according to an Energy Information Administration outlook published Tuesday (1/20).

The EIA projected the average retail gasoline price will fall by about 20 cents per gallon in 2026, extending the downward trend that began following the 2022 peak in pump prices.

Prices are expected to decrease across all U.S. regions this year, with the Gulf Coast maintaining the lowest average price near $2.50 per gallon. The West Coast is projected to remain the most expensive region at nearly $4 per gallon as refinery capacity reductions offset broader national price declines.

Although prices are forecast to rise by 1% in 2027, average gasoline prices are expected to remain below the 2025 average in every region except the West Coast. Continued refinery capacity losses in that region are expected to support higher margins and keep prices roughly in line with last year.

The EIA said the West Coast is expected to retain the highest gasoline prices nationwide through 2027, while the Gulf Coast is forecast to post the lowest prices, followed by the Midwest.

Downward pressure on gasoline prices next year is expected to come from lower crude oil prices. Crude oil’s share of the retail gasoline price is projected to fall below 45% by 2027, compared to a historical average above 50%.

Refining margins and taxes are expected to account for a larger share of the pump price as global crude oil markets soften. Gasoline crack spreads are forecast to increase slightly through 2027 due to lower inventories and tighter Atlantic Basin market conditions, though margins are expected to remain well below levels seen in 2022 and 2023.