EIA: Higher Biofuel Blending Target Pushes RINs Values

HOUSTON, TX (DTN) –Renewable identification numbers (RINs) have nearly doubled in value since January due to higher U.S. biofuel blending targets, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).  

As of June 4, biomass-based diesel (D4) RINs traded at $2.41 and ethanol (D6) RINs traded at $2.37, both close to their all-time highs set in 2021, the EIA reported on Wednesday (6/11). Because one gallon generates 1.5 RINs for biodiesel and 1.6 to 1.7 RINs for renewable diesel, these fuels currently generate more than $3.50/gal of credits. A gallon of fuel ethanol generates 1.0 RIN.

RIN prices increased in 2026 primarily because of higher blending mandates. On March 27, the EPA announced the final RFS rule for 2026 and 2027, establishing significantly higher Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) than those in 2025.

Higher prices for petroleum products make fuel ethanol relatively more attractive for blending into gasoline.

 Relative to motor gasoline prices, the U.S. Gulf Coast fuel ethanol price, adjusted for energy equivalence, has been lower most days since mid-March. The higher RIN value that blenders using ethanol can then sell on the open market to companies that need to remain in compliance also incentivizes greater blending into gasoline. The fuel ethanol discount to gasoline has been more than $2.00 gallon in May and June when the higher RIN value is included.

High RIN values have also supported production and blending margins for biodiesel and renewable diesel.

The EIA forecasts record-high production of fuel ethanol and renewable diesel in 2026, increasing by 24% and 41%, respectively, year-over-year, supported by high blending mandates, high gasoline and diesel prices, and increasing production capacity at biofuel plants.

 Biodiesel production is expected to increase, but it will remain below record highs because of lost production capacity, according to the EIA.

The agency also projects increased production of all three fuels in 2027, when the RVO increases further.