EIA: Henry Hub Spot Price Seen 4% Below March STEO

MIAMI, FL (DTN) – The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered its U.S. natural gas price outlook for this year as higher inventories and steady production growth eases market tightness, the agency’s latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released Tuesday (4/7) showed.
The Henry Hub spot price is forecast to average $3.67/MMBtu in 2026, according to the EIA’s STEO for April. That was about 4% lower than the $3.81/MMBtu it forecast in its March STEO, although still higher than the $3.53/MMBtu that natural gas averaged in 2025. 

The downward revision reflects stronger supply growth and storage levels after a winter withdrawal season where inventories ended with historical averages higher than last month’s outlook.
For 2027, the EIA expects Henry Hub prices to average about $3.59/MMBtu, also roughly 4% lower than last month’s outlook of $3.73/MMBtu. That is in line with continued production growth and expanding liquefied natural gas exports as supply growth outpaces demand over the next several years.
U.S. natural gas prices also faced limited upward pressure from international markets despite disruptions to global LNG trade tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, U.S. prices are expected to remain relatively insulated as LNG export facilities continue operating near peak capacity, limiting the ability to ship additional volumes abroad in the near term.  
U.S. natural gas inventories exited the withdrawal season in March at about 1,900 Bcf, roughly 3% above the five-year average, after storage levels rebounded due to rising production and relatively mild weather conditions late in the winter.  
The EIA STEO anticipates increased crude oil activity to drive higher associated natural gas production in the coming years. Marketed natural gas production is expected to increase 2% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, supported by stronger oil-directed drilling and infrastructure capacity that allows producers to bring more supply to market.