EIA: Alaska 2026 Crude Output to Grow 13% on Year

SECAUCUS, NJ (DTN) – Alaska’s crude output is forecast to grow by 13% year-on-year in 2026 to 477,000 bpd, reaching its highest annual expansion in four decades as two major oil production projects come onstream, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday (11/19).

The Santos and Repsol Pikka Phase 1 project will start in the first quarter of next year and reach a peak output of 80,000 bpd by mid-year, nearly equal to 20% of Alaska’s 2024 production, the EIA said.

ConocoPhillips’ Nuna project, which started production in December last year, is expected to peak at 20,000 bpd. In August this year, Nuna produced 7,000 bpd, offsetting existing production declines.

The wells from these new projects are expected to outperform most Alaskan wells, the agency noted. It pointed to recent production records from the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission that put combined production of these wells at around 480 boed on average, whereas 78% of Alaskan wells produced less than 400 boed in 2023.

“After decades of decline, we expect a 13% (55,000 bpd) increase in Alaska oil production, the largest annual increase since the 1980s,” the EIA added.