EIA Adjusts U.S. Crude Oil Production 206 KBD Higher

VIENNA (DTN) – The U.S. Energy Information Administration has raised crude oil production estimates by 206,000 bpd in its latest weekly report – continuing with its trend of catching up with output growing faster than anticipated.

The hike of 1.5%, which brings crude production to 13.862 million bpd, was in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report released by the EIA on Thursday (11/13).  

The re-benchmarking coincided with the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook for November – separately released on Thursday — which contained an upward revision as well to U.S. crude oil production estimates as output continued to surprise to the upside.

Underestimated crude oil production may in part explain the consistent positive adjustment factor the EIA had to apply to their weekly data sets. Inventories have been expanding more than expected amid falling imports, rising exports and stable refinery runs.

Over the past four weeks, net crude oil imports have averaged 1.59 million bpd, down more than 1 million bpd, or 39%, from the same period in 2024.

Crude inputs into refineries, meanwhile, were trailing year-ago levels by 4.3% on the four-week average.

Despite this, commercial inventories were still 4.76 million bbl higher than four weeks ago, likely a result of U.S. crude production outperforming past weekly estimates.

Along with the adjustment to its weekly figures, the EIA raised U.S. production forecasts for this year and next. The agency now expects domestic crude oil production to average 13.82 million bpd in the fourth quarter, up 1.1% from October’s forecast.

The new estimate implies that often written off U.S. production growth in 2025 was even higher than last year’s, expanding by an average of 2.7% year-on-year, compared to 2.2%.

Despite these adjustments, EIA continued to stay firm on their forecast that U.S. production will peak this year before gradually easing.

While an oil-price driven model would support this view as futures prices have softened more than 25% so far this year – with WTI inching closer to some producer’s break-evens – efficiency gains may continue to drive U.S. crude output to new highs, even with the number of active rigs waning.