DTN Soybean Meal Six Factors

TREND: The trend in December soybean meal is up for now.

NONCOMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Noncommercial soybean meal traders held a net-short futures position of 48,915 contracts as of Sept. 23, an increase of 4,307 contracts as meal traders turned to selling on the news that Argentina would lift their grain export tax.

COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK: Commercial traders held a net-long position in soymeal futures of 36,600 contracts for the week ending Sept. 23, the most recent CFTC report. December meal is priced $1.90 below the January contract, a spread which held steady over the most recent week. Cash meal prices in Illinois have been running nearly even with the January futures board over the past week, a sign of very strong domestic demand.

SEASONAL INDEX: Soybean meal prices tend to peak in early July and bottom in early October.

PRICE PROBABILITY: In the most recent week, most active (December) soybean meal futures fell to the 21st percentile, still a relatively inexpensive price location within the five-year range.

VOLATILITY: Three-month price volatility in most active (December) meal futures rose to 10% after prices closed lower on the week, snapping a streak of three consecutively higher weeks.