DTN Cattle Analysis and Recommendations

DTN Cattle Analysis & Recommendations

09/05/2025

Note: Futures and options are typically not good hedging tools for the cattle market. For hedging purposes in your state, check Livestock Risk Protection coverage and quotes at https://public.rma.usda.gov/livestockreports/LRPReport.aspx.

POSITIONS

2022: Sold short December cattle on Sept. 26, 2022, for 25% of November/December marketings. Dec cattle were at $146.80 at the time of the recommendation.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT

All in all, it was a mostly disappointing week for the live cattle complex as the futures market was greatly pressured and the cash cattle market lacked to ever really establish a true trend for the week. Traders were reluctant to advance the contracts any higher, which is what led to the markets descend. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $242, which is steady to $1.00 higher than last week’s weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $383, which is $2.00 lower than last week’s weighted average. October live cattle is a Type 4, somewhat bearish market.

DAILY NOTE

October live cattle closed $0.97 lower at $235.97 as traders remained committed to seeing the live cattle contracts trade lower. A few more cash cattle sales were reported throughout the day, and some sales were actually higher in the North than compared to the week’s weighted average (trading at $387, which is $4.00 higher than last week’s weighted average), but that was just on a small sampling. Friday’s slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head — 17,000 head more than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago.

RECOMMENDATIONS*

There have been no hedge recommendations yet in 2025 and none are expected anytime soon, as long as cattle supplies remain tight.

*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.