DTN Cattle Analysis and Recommendations

DTN Cattle Analysis & Recommendations

09/04/2025

Note: Futures and options are typically not good hedging tools for the cattle market. For hedging purposes in your state, check Livestock Risk Protection coverage and quotes at https://public.rma.usda.gov/livestockreports/LRPReport.aspx.

POSITIONS

2022: Sold short December cattle on Sept. 26, 2022, for 25% of November/December marketings. Dec cattle were at $146.80 at the time of the recommendation.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT

It was a moderately successful week for the live cattle complex as the futures market traded higher throughout most of the week, beef demand didn’t fall off majorly even though Labor Day meat buying is done and the fed cash cattle market traded mixed with Southern live cattle trading mostly at $242, which is $2.00 higher than last week’s weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at $385, which is $1.00 lower. October live cattle is a Type 3, neutral market.

DAILY NOTE

October live cattle closed $1.37 lower at $236.95 as traders continue to be concerned about the technical position of the market. Upon seeing more cattle trade at softer prices in the fed cash cattle market, traders seemed even more convinced that the market’s weaker trend was needed. So far this week, Southern live cattle have traded at $242, which is fully steady with last week’s weighted average. Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly $383, which is $2.00 lower than last week’s weighted average. Thursday’s slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head — 3,000 head more than a week ago 3,000 head less than a year ago.

RECOMMENDATIONS*

There have been no hedge recommendations yet in 2025 and none are expected anytime soon, as long as cattle supplies remain tight.

*DTN recommendations are general in nature and are not intended to be specific for any particular person or farming business. The buying and selling of futures or options involves substantial risk and is not suitable for everyone. DTN accepts no responsibility for actual trades made.