DTN Analysis of Crude, ULSD, RBOB, and Natural Gas Futures
CRANBURY, N.J. (DTN) — Brent Crude Oil: The spot-month contract is higher for a second session early Wednesday following last week’s move to a $15.98 21-year low. Trendline resistance is found at $23.40. Brent’s six-month calendar spread softened to an $8.60 contango ahead of Thursday’s expiration by the June contract. The relative strength index shows oversold pressure.
Crude Oil: The spot-month contract is up $2 early Wednesday following losses during the previous two sessions, moving above the $13.67 50% retracement point for the 2020 downtrend. Trendline resistance is found at $19.46, with support at $0.92. The six-month calendar spread narrowed to a $12.40 contango after blowing out to a $68.44 extreme on April 20. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.
Distillates: The spot-month contract is up early Wednesday for a second session after reversing from a $0.58 18-year low ahead of Thursday’s May contract expiration. Resistance is found at $0.7864 with trendline resistance at $0.8304. A resumption lower and move through $0.58 finds support at the $0.4686 extension point for the downtrend from the 2018 high to 2019 low. The six-month spread in the contango market narrowed to $0.2790 this morning from a record extreme $0.311. The relative strength index shows oversold pressure.
RBOB Gasoline: The spot-month contract is up for a second session early Wednesday, testing resistance $0.7140 ahead of the May contract’s expiration Thursday afternoon. Resistance is again marked at $0.7750 and $0.8368, with support at $0.5912, $0.47 and at the $0.3760 21-year low. The forward curve is in contango through September delivery, with the May-June spread at $0.0380 and the May-September spread narrowing to $0.0965. The relative strength index shows a neutral market.
Natural Gas: The June contract gapped fractionally higher on the spot continuous chart early Wednesday following the May contract’s expiration Tuesday afternoon, punching above the 100-day moving average at $1.917. The spot-month contract is testing resistance at last week’s $1.974 five-week high, with trendline resistance at $2.062. The forward curve remains in contango through January 2021 delivery, with the June to December spread widening to more than $1. The relative strength index shows a neutral market condition.