Dry Weather for Most

General Overview: ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN US WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL DEVELOPING IN TEXAS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM BRINGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TROPICAL STORM MELISSA CONTINUES IN THE CARIBBEAN.

EAST:
A relatively quiet weather pattern is expected across much of the eastern United States initially, with high pressure dominating through Thursday. Light rain will develop across portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast by Thursday evening. As we move into the weekend, precipitation chances will increase across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic as frontal boundaries push eastward. Some rain showers may develop along the Southeast coast by Sunday into Monday. Overall, the eastern third of the country will experience generally tranquil conditions compared to other regions, with precipitation remaining light to moderate.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Near normal temperatures for most areas with slightly below normal temperatures (2-6°F below average) across portions of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. The Northeast will experience seasonable conditions.

-Days 4-6: Cooling trend developing with below normal temperatures spreading across much of the region, particularly from the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast (3-6°F below normal).

-Days 7-10: Below normal temperatures continuing across the Southeast and coastal areas (3-6°F below normal), gradually moderating by day 10 with near normal temperatures returning to most areas.

CENTRAL:
An active weather pattern will dominate the Central US over the next several days. Rain and thunderstorms will spread across the Central Plains through Thursday, with areas of moderate to heavy rainfall. By Friday, a significant storm system will develop over Texas and Oklahoma, bringing a threat of heavy rain and flash flooding to eastern Texas. This system will also produce a risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of Texas on Friday. The precipitation will spread northeastward into the Mississippi Valley by the weekend. Mixed precipitation is possible across portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest as colder air filters into the region.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Near to slightly below normal temperatures across the Midwest and Great Lakes (2-4°F below normal), with above normal temperatures (3-6°F above normal) across Texas and the southern Plains.

-Days 4-6: Warming trend developing across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest with temperatures climbing to 6-10°F above normal, particularly in Montana and the Dakotas. Near normal temperatures elsewhere.

-Days 7-10: Above normal temperatures continuing across the northern Plains (4-8°F above normal), gradually moderating by day 10. Near normal temperatures returning to most other areas.

WEST:
An unsettled pattern will affect the Western US, with multiple systems bringing precipitation to the region. Rain and mountain snow will impact the Pacific Northwest through Thursday, with mixed precipitation extending into the Northern Rockies. By Friday, another system will bring additional precipitation to the Northwest and Northern Rockies. Scattered rain and thunderstorms will affect portions of the Southwest, particularly Colorado and Utah. As the weekend progresses, precipitation will continue across much of the Northwest and Intermountain West, with snow likely at higher elevations. The Southwest will experience scattered thunderstorm activity, particularly across Arizona and New Mexico.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Above normal temperatures across the Southwest and portions of the Rockies (3-6°F above normal), with near normal temperatures along the Pacific Coast.

-Days 4-6: Warming trend continuing across the interior West with temperatures 4-8°F above normal in parts of the northern Rockies. Below normal temperatures developing along the Pacific Northwest coast (3-5°F below normal).

-Days 7-10: Temperatures moderating to near normal for most areas, with slightly above normal temperatures persisting across portions of the Southwest and slightly below normal temperatures continuing in parts of the Pacific Northwest.

TROPICAL:
ATLANTIC: Tropical Storm Melissa is located in the Caribbean Sea near 14.3N  74.6W. It is expected to continue strengthening over the next 5 days, eventually becoming a major hurricane. This system will likely yield impacts for Jamaica, Cuba, and the greater Antilles.

EAST PACIFIC: A wave in the eastern Pacific will continue to track westward, and has a high chance of development through the next week. However, this system will remain well offshore, with no land impacts expected.