Dry Today

General Overview: A SIGNIFICANT AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY, BRINGING THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FLASH FLOODING TO THE MIDWEST AND MID-SOUTH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN RAPIDLY PUSH EASTWARD, DELIVERING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES BY MID-WEEK. A SECONDARY SYSTEM DEVELOPING LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GULF COAST. MEANWHILE, A PERSISTENT COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH DOMINATES THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION EARLY ON.

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EAST: The eastern United States will be heavily impacted by a rapidly advancing low pressure system tracking out of the South Central region and into the Mid-South and Ohio Valley early in the period. On Tuesday evening, a broad area of thunderstorm activity is expected to stretch from the lower Mississippi Valley northward through the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes, with a warm front draped across the region helping to focus moisture and lift. **Severe thunderstorms are possible across a corridor encompassing the mid-Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, and into portions of the Ohio Valley**, where conditions will be favorable for organized convection. Heavy rain and flash flooding will also be a concern across these same areas, and residents should remain alert to rapidly changing conditions.

As the system accelerates northeastward into Wednesday evening, the low pressure center tracks toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, bringing a warm front northward into the Northeast. Rain will overspread a large portion of the East, from the Southeast northward through the Carolinas and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A critical precipitation-type transition zone will set up across interior portions of the Northeast and northern New England, where **mixed precipitation including freezing rain and snow** will be possible, particularly at higher elevations. The Great Lakes region will also see rain and mixed precipitation as the system pushes through.

By Thursday evening, the low has moved offshore near the Mid-Atlantic coast, with warm frontal boundaries extending northward into New England. Rain and mixed precipitation will continue to affect coastal areas of the Northeast, with snow possible across the higher terrain of northern New England. The Southeast and Gulf Coast will see lingering rain and thunderstorm activity as the trailing cold front sweeps through the region.

Into Friday, a new low pressure system develops near the Northeast coast, with an associated occluded front and continued rain and mixed precipitation across New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Scattered rain showers will persist across portions of the Southeast as the cold front pushes offshore. High pressure building in behind the departing system will gradually bring drier conditions to much of the East by the end of the period.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– Days 1-3: The East will be split, with above-normal temperatures of 6 to more than 12°F across the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and portions of the Northeast early in the period, particularly on Days 1 and 2. Northern New England will also see above-normal readings. By Day 3, anomalies moderate somewhat but remain above normal across the Great Lakes and interior Northeast.

– Days 4-6: Temperature anomalies across the East become more subdued. The Northeast and Great Lakes transition to near to slightly below normal readings as the cold air filters in behind the departing system. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic trend closer to seasonal norms.

– Days 7-10: Below-normal temperatures become more widespread across the eastern half of the country, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F below normal across the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and portions of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. The Gulf Coast region also trends below normal by the end of the period.

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CENTRAL: The central United States will be at the epicenter of the most significant weather early in the period. On Tuesday evening, a well-defined low pressure system is positioned over the lower Missouri Valley, with a warm front extending eastward and a cold front sweeping southward into the South Central region. **Severe thunderstorms represent the primary hazard across a broad swath from the central Mississippi Valley through the Ohio Valley**, with the threat for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes all possible within this corridor. Heavy rain and flash flooding will accompany these storms, and multiple rounds of convection are possible through the overnight hours.

By Wednesday, the low tracks eastward and the cold front pushes into the Tennessee Valley and lower Mississippi Valley. **Severe thunderstorms remain a significant threat across the Mid-South, including portions of the lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley**, as strong atmospheric instability and wind shear persist ahead of the advancing front. Heavy rain and flash flooding continue to be concerns across this region. To the north and west, behind the departing system, mixed precipitation including snow will spread across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest as cold air wraps in behind the system.

Later in the week, a new low pressure system develops over the Central Plains and South Central region by Friday, bringing a fresh round of rain and thunderstorms to the Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley. Mixed precipitation, including snow, is possible across the Central Plains and into the Rockies with this secondary system. Critical fire weather conditions will also be a concern across portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest early in the period, where dry and windy conditions will prevail.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– Days 1-3: The South Central region will be notably above normal, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12°F across the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley on Days 1 and 2. The Northern Plains and upper Midwest will be running well below normal, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12°F below normal across the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. By Day 3, the cold anomalies expand southward into the Central Plains, while the warm anomalies shift eastward.

– Days 4-6: A significant cold surge takes hold across the Central Plains and South Central region. By Days 5 and 6, temperature anomalies of 6 to more than 12°F below normal are expected across the Central and Southern Plains, with the coldest departures centered over the southern Rockies and Central Plains. The Northern Plains and upper Midwest remain below normal as well.

– Days 7-10: Below-normal temperatures persist across the South Central region and Central Plains, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12°F below normal across portions of the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. The North Central region gradually moderates toward near-normal readings by the end of the period.

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WEST: The western United States will experience a relatively quieter weather pattern compared to the central and eastern portions of the country, though not without notable activity. Across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, a persistent area of mixed precipitation including snow will be ongoing through the early part of the period, particularly across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies and Cascades. Thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Intermountain West and Southwest early in the period, with scattered showers and mixed precipitation continuing across the northern Rockies.

By mid-week, precipitation activity across the Northwest will diminish somewhat as high pressure builds into the region. However, the northern Rockies will continue to see periods of snow and mixed precipitation through the period. Across the Southwest, critical fire weather conditions will be a concern early in the period, with dry and windy conditions creating elevated fire danger. The Pacific Coast will remain relatively dry through much of the period.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– Days 1-3: The northern Rockies and portions of the Intermountain West will be running 6 to more than 12°F below normal, with the coldest anomalies centered over northern Montana and the northern Rockies. The Pacific Coast will be near to slightly below normal. The Southwest will be near normal to slightly above normal.

– Days 4-6: Temperature anomalies across the West undergo a significant shift. The Pacific Northwest transitions to above-normal temperatures, with anomalies of 6°F or more above normal developing across the Pacific Northwest and extending into the northern Rockies by Days 5 and 6. The Southwest remains near to slightly above normal.

– Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures become well-established across the Pacific Northwest and much of the Intermountain West, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12°F above normal across the Pacific Northwest. The Southwest also trends above normal. The northern Rockies and portions of the Great Basin see a gradual warming trend through the end of the period.

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TROPICAL: No tropical cyclone activity is expected across either the Atlantic or Pacific basins during the next seven days. There are no active storms, disturbances under monitoring, or areas of development concern at this time across either basin.