Dry for Most

**GENERAL OVERVIEW:**

An active weather pattern will unfold across much of the country over the coming days, driven by a series of low pressure systems and associated frontal boundaries tracking across the interior of the nation. The most significant near-term hazards are focused across the Upper Midwest and central Plains, where a combination of heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe thunderstorm threats are explicitly highlighted for Friday into Saturday. A broad area of rain and thunderstorm activity will extend from the Gulf Coast northward through the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, while the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies contend with their own precipitation. A persistent above-normal temperature signal dominates much of the eastern two-thirds of the country throughout the forecast period, while portions of the interior West trend below normal by the latter half of the period.

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**EAST:**

The near-term period across the East is characterized by an active frontal pattern. On Friday, a low pressure system tracking across the Upper Midwest is drawing a warm front northeastward toward New England, with a broad shield of rain and thunderstorms extending from the Great Lakes southward through the Ohio Valley and into the Southeast. A separate low pressure center is positioned near the Northeast coast, with a warm front extending westward. Rain and thunderstorm coverage is widespread across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and into New England. A high pressure system situated over the Southeast is keeping conditions drier across the Carolinas and much of the Deep South on Friday, though thunderstorm activity is noted along the Gulf Coast.

By Saturday, the frontal system pushes eastward, and **severe thunderstorms are explicitly highlighted as a threat across the Ohio Valley, including portions of Ohio and into the Mid-Atlantic corridor stretching from Pennsylvania through New Jersey and Delaware**. This is a notable hazard that warrants close attention. Rain and thunderstorm activity continues broadly across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into New England as the low tracks toward the Northeast coast. A separate area of mixed precipitation is noted across portions of the Pacific Northwest, though that is addressed in the West section. Conditions begin to dry out across the Southeast behind the departing frontal boundary.

By Sunday evening, the primary low has shifted well to the northeast, and a cold front pushes through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, with rain and thunderstorm activity continuing across the region. The Northeast coast sees lingering rain as a cold front approaches from the west. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic trend drier behind the frontal passage.

Into Monday and Tuesday, another frontal system approaches from the west, maintaining a corridor of rain and thunderstorm activity across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The Southeast sees scattered thunderstorm activity, particularly along and ahead of the advancing cold front. By Tuesday, rain and thunderstorm coverage is noted across portions of the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, while the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic see diminishing activity behind a cold front that has pushed offshore.

**Temperature Anomalies:**
– **Days 1–3:** Temperatures across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast are running notably above normal, with anomalies of 6 to 12°F or more above average, particularly across the Great Lakes and into New England. A localized area of below-normal temperatures is noted across portions of the central Gulf Coast region on Day 1, with anomalies of roughly 3 to 6°F below normal. By Day 3, the above-normal signal strengthens across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with anomalies of 6 to over 12°F above normal in parts of New England and the Mid-Atlantic coast.
– **Days 4–6:** Above-normal temperatures persist broadly across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast through this period. Anomalies of 6 to 12°F above normal are common across the Great Lakes and into New England on Days 4 and 5. By Day 6, the above-normal signal remains robust across the Great Lakes and Northeast, with anomalies exceeding 12°F above normal in portions of the upper Great Lakes and New England corridor. A small area of slightly below-normal temperatures is noted along the immediate Mid-Atlantic coast on Day 5.
– **Days 7–10:** The above-normal temperature pattern across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast continues to be the dominant signal through the end of the forecast period. Anomalies of 6 to 12°F or more above normal persist across the Great Lakes and into New England on Days 7 and 8. By Days 9 and 10, the above-normal signal moderates somewhat but remains in place across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and portions of the Northeast, with anomalies generally in the 3 to 9°F above-normal range.

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**CENTRAL:**

The Central region is home to the most significant weather hazards in the near-term forecast. On Friday, a complex of low pressure systems is positioned across the central and northern Plains, with multiple surface lows evident from the central Rockies northward into the northern Plains. **Heavy rain and flash flooding are explicitly highlighted as a significant threat across a corridor encompassing portions of Nebraska, Iowa, and into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.** Additionally, **severe thunderstorms are explicitly highlighted as possible across this same general corridor, overlapping with the heavy rain and flash flooding threat.** This is the highest-impact weather event in the current forecast period and should be monitored closely. Rain and thunderstorm activity is widespread across the entire central region, from the Central and Southern Plains northward through the Midwest and into the Upper Midwest.

By Saturday evening, the primary low has shifted into the northern Plains, with a warm front extending eastward and a cold front sweeping southward through the central Plains. Rain and thunderstorm activity remains widespread from the Central Plains through the Midwest. **Severe thunderstorms remain a highlighted threat across portions of northern Montana and into the Dakotas on Saturday**, as the cold front pushes through the region. The South Central states continue to see widespread thunderstorm activity ahead of the advancing cold front.

Into Sunday evening, the cold front has pushed through much of the central Plains and Midwest, with rain and thunderstorm activity continuing across the Central and Southern Plains. The Upper Midwest sees diminishing precipitation behind the frontal passage. A broad area of thunderstorm activity persists from the South Central states northward through the lower Mississippi Valley.

By Monday and Tuesday, a new low pressure system develops across the northern Plains, with a cold front extending southwestward and a warm front pushing eastward. Rain and thunderstorm activity is noted across the Central Plains and into the Midwest, with snow noted in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. By Tuesday evening, the low is positioned near the northern Plains/Upper Midwest border, with a warm front extending eastward into the Upper Midwest and a cold front sweeping southwestward across the central and southern Plains. Rain and thunderstorm activity is widespread from the South Central states northward through the Central Plains and into the Upper Midwest.

**Temperature Anomalies:**
– **Days 1–3:** On Day 1, temperatures across the Upper Midwest and portions of the northern Plains are running 6 to 9°F above normal. A notable area of below-normal temperatures is evident across portions of southern and western Texas on Days 1 and 2, with anomalies of roughly 3 to 6°F below normal. By Day 3, a strong above-normal temperature signal develops across the northern and central Plains, with anomalies of 6 to over 12°F above normal across the Dakotas and into Nebraska and Kansas. A small area of below-normal temperatures persists across portions of eastern New Mexico on Day 3.
– **Days 4–6:** Above-normal temperatures dominate the Central region through this period. On Day 4, anomalies of 6 to over 12°F above normal are focused across the northern Plains, particularly the Dakotas, and extend southward into the central Plains. The Midwest also sees above-normal readings of 3 to 9°F. By Days 5 and 6, the above-normal signal broadens across the Central Plains and Midwest, with anomalies of 6 to 12°F above normal common from the central Plains through the Midwest and into the Upper Midwest.
– **Days 7–10:** The above-normal temperature pattern persists across the Central region through the end of the forecast period. Days 7 and 8 show anomalies of 6 to 12°F above normal across the central and northern Plains and into the Midwest. By Days 9 and 10, the above-normal signal moderates somewhat across the Central Plains and South Central states, with those areas trending closer to near-normal, while the Upper Midwest and northern Plains maintain a modest above-normal signal.

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**WEST:**

The West sees an active precipitation pattern, particularly across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. On Friday, a cold front is pushing through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies, with rain and mixed precipitation noted across western Washington and Oregon, and snow in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies and Cascades. Multiple low pressure systems are evident across the Intermountain West, contributing to unsettled conditions. Rain is noted across portions of the Pacific Coast, while the Desert Southwest and California remain largely dry.

By Saturday, the frontal system has pushed further inland, and **mixed precipitation, including snow, is explicitly highlighted across portions of Washington, Oregon, and into northern Idaho and western Montana**. Rain continues along the Pacific Coast. The cold front pushes through the northern Rockies, with precipitation tapering off across the Pacific Northwest by Sunday.

Into Sunday and Monday evenings, the cold front has moved well inland, and precipitation coverage across the West diminishes. Scattered rain and snow showers persist across the northern Rockies and into portions of the Great Basin. The Pacific Coast sees a brief respite before the next system approaches.

By Tuesday evening, a new cold front is approaching the Pacific Coast from the northwest, with rain and snow returning to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Rain is noted along the Pacific Coast, and snow is confined to the higher terrain of the Cascades and northern Rockies. The Desert Southwest and California remain largely dry through the period.

**Temperature Anomalies:**
– **Days 1–3:** On Day 1, temperatures across much of the West are running above normal, with anomalies of 3 to 9°F above normal across California, Nevada, Arizona, and into the central Rockies. By Day 2, the above-normal signal strengthens across the Intermountain West and into the central Rockies, with anomalies of 6 to over 12°F above normal in portions of Nevada, Utah, and Colorado. A small area of slightly below-normal temperatures is noted across portions of western Washington on Day 2. By Day 3, a notable below-normal temperature signal develops across Washington and Oregon, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F below normal, while the central and southern Rockies remain well above normal, with anomalies of 6 to over 12°F above normal.
– **Days 4–6:** The temperature pattern across the West becomes more split during this period. On Day 4, below-normal temperatures are evident across Washington, Oregon, and into northern Idaho and western Montana, with anomalies of 3 to 9°F below normal. Meanwhile, the central Rockies and Desert Southwest maintain above-normal readings of 3 to 6°F. By Days 5 and 6, the below-normal signal expands across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies and portions of the Great Basin, with anomalies of 3 to 9°F below normal. The Desert Southwest and southern Rockies remain near to slightly above normal.
– **Days 7–10:** The below-normal temperature signal across the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and portions of the Great Basin becomes more pronounced through Days 7 and 8, with anomalies of 6 to over 12°F below normal across portions of Idaho, Montana, and into Nevada and Utah. By Days 9 and 10, the below-normal signal begins to moderate and contract, with the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies trending back toward near-normal, while California and the Desert Southwest see a return to slightly above-normal conditions.

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**TROPICAL:**

No tropical cyclone activity is anticipated in the Atlantic basin or Gulf of Mexico during the next seven days. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Amanda is currently located well west of Mexico at approximately Category 2 intensity and is not expected to pose any threat to land areas. Additionally, two disturbances are being monitored in the vicinity of the eastern Pacific off the coast of Central America and southern Mexico. One of these disturbances carries a greater than 60 percent chance of development into a named storm over the next seven days, while a second nearby disturbance has a lower probability of development, below 40 percent. Neither disturbance is currently expected to impact the continental United States, though interests along the Pacific Coast of Mexico and Central America should monitor the progress of these systems.